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ARENA Football Game Matchup Report

Friday, 5/16/2008 at 7:00 PM				TAMPA BAY (4-6) at GRAND RAPIDS (3-7)
Game Matchups \| FoxSheet				Results				Offensive Statistics				Defensive Statistics
Teams	Line	PF	PA	SU	ATS	O/U/P	TO	RY	RYPA	PY	PYPC	RY	RYPA	PY	PYPC
151: TAMPA BAY	112	51.9	54.1	4-6	3-7-0	5-5-0	-5	9.3	1.4	278.5	7.7	14.6	1.9	247.7	7.0
152: GRAND RAPIDS	+2.5	56.5	60.0	3-7	6-4-0	5-5-0	+3	35.0	4.1	245.5	7.7	22.1	2.9	292.3	7.7

Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.

	Power Rating
	Estimate	Edge
TAMPA BAY	-2
GRAND RAPIDS

Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.

TAMPA BAY - Recent ATS Trends
	Against the spread			Over/Under			Straight Up
	Current	Last 3	Since 1996	Current	Last 3	Since 1996	Current	Last 3	Since 1996
Description	W-L	W-L	W-L	O-U	O-U	O-U	W-L	W-L	W-L
in games where the line is +3 to -3	1-1	6-5	27-17	1-1	8-3	21-14	2-0	6-5	27-17
in all games	3-7	19-24	107-86	5-5	24-18	77-60	4-6	20-23	121-73
when playing on a Friday	2-1	5-4	25-17	2-1	6-3	16-10	2-1	5-4	30-15
when playing with 6 or less days rest	2-2	15-12	70-56	2-2	15-11	49-39	2-2	16-11	90-48
against American Conference, Central Division Opponents	0-2	2-3	19-12	1-1	3-2	14-8	1-1	3-2	23-10
off a division game	0-3	8-12	43-41	1-2	10-9	37-26	0-3	8-12	53-38
in May games	1-1	4-4	28-15	0-2	4-4	19-13	1-1	4-4	34-15
in non-conference games	0-3	5-6	39-26	2-1	6-5	26-18	1-2	6-5	45-25
off a win versus a division rival	0-2	3-7	28-25	1-1	6-4	23-15	0-2	3-7	31-23
when playing against a team with a losing record	0-3	8-9	31-28	2-1	10-6	23-19	0-3	9-8	47-17
when playing against a team with a losing record after 8 or more games	0-0	7-4	21-17	0-0	6-4	15-11	0-0	8-3	33-8
in weeks 10 through 13	1-1	6-4	29-17	0-2	3-7	15-17	1-1	5-5	33-17
in the last 4 weeks of the regular season	0-0	5-3	25-19	0-0	5-2	15-13	0-0	4-4	32-15
when the total is greater than or equal to 110	1-1	4-4	5-5	0-2	0-8	1-9	1-1	5-3	6-4
as a favorite	2-5	11-10	78-58	5-2	13-7	51-34	3-4	13-8	99-38
as a road favorite of 3 points or less	0-1	1-1	6-6	1-0	2-0	6-3	1-0	2-0	7-5
in road games	1-4	8-13	49-45	2-3	12-9	38-30	2-3	8-13	52-42
in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 110	1-1	2-2	3-2	0-2	0-4	1-4	1-1	2-2	3-2

GRAND RAPIDS - Recent ATS Trends
	Against the spread			Over/Under			Straight Up
	Current	Last 3	Since 1996	Current	Last 3	Since 1996	Current	Last 3	Since 1996
Description	W-L	W-L	W-L	O-U	O-U	O-U	W-L	W-L	W-L
in games where the line is +3 to -3	1-2	2-4	15-20	2-1	5-1	15-14	1-2	2-4	18-21
in all games	6-4	20-22	72-91	5-5	24-18	69-61	3-7	12-30	64-103
when playing on a Friday	1-2	2-5	17-18	0-3	4-3	14-9	1-2	1-6	18-19
when playing with 6 or less days rest	3-3	11-17	43-55	1-5	16-12	48-32	2-4	7-21	41-58
against National Conference, Southern Division Opponents	0-1	0-4	11-19	1-0	2-2	13-9	0-1	0-4	10-20
after playing a game on a Saturday	1-1	9-10	34-44	2-0	10-9	38-28	0-2	4-15	34-46
in May games	1-1	4-4	18-24	1-1	5-3	16-14	0-2	2-6	17-25
in non-conference games	1-2	3-9	25-33	2-1	6-6	23-22	0-3	1-11	24-35
after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses	3-0	12-5	31-29	1-2	10-7	23-27	2-1	9-8	20-41
when playing against a team with a losing record	1-2	8-4	24-33	0-3	7-5	22-19	1-2	5-7	22-35
when playing against a team with a losing record after 8 or more games	0-1	3-2	12-20	0-1	2-3	12-14	0-1	1-4	12-20
in weeks 10 through 13	1-1	5-5	15-26	1-1	5-5	17-17	0-2	3-7	12-30
in the last 4 weeks of the regular season	0-0	3-5	13-25	0-0	3-5	15-17	0-0	3-5	12-27
when the total is greater than or equal to 110	3-4	8-10	16-20	2-5	9-9	17-18	2-5	5-13	15-21
as an underdog	4-3	17-20	53-59	4-3	21-16	43-44	1-6	9-28	31-82
as a home underdog of 3 points or less	0-1	0-3	2-7	1-0	3-0	4-2	0-1	0-3	2-8
in home games	3-2	11-10	35-48	3-2	17-4	41-25	2-3	10-11	39-46
in home games where the total is greater than or equal to 110	2-2	5-5	8-12	2-2	7-3	13-7	2-2	5-5	11-9

Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.

TAMPA BAY - Current Season Performance
	Straight Up		Against Spread		Team					Opponent
	W-L	Units	W-L	O-U	Score	Half	Yards	YPP	TO	Score	Half	Yards	YPP	TO
All Games	4-6	-15	3-7	5-5	51.9	24.3	287.8	(6.8)	2.1	54.1	25.6	262.3	(6.1)	1.6
Road Games	2-3	-5.4	1-4	2-3	50.8	21.0	282.2	(6.2)	2.6	55.2	27.2	263.2	(6.4)	1.6
Last 3 Games	2-1	+1.9	2-1	0-3	45.0	23.0	258.3	(6.5)	1.3	43.0	18.0	249.0	(5.5)	3.0

TAMPA BAY - Current Season Statistics
					Rushing		Passing				Total
	PPG	Half	FD	TOP	ATT-YDS	YPR	CMP-ATT	PCT	YDS	PYA	ATT-YDS	YPP	YPPT
Offense (All Games)	51.9	24.3	20.6	29:49	7-9	(1.4)	23-36	64.7%	278	(7.7)	43-288	(6.8)	(5.5)
Opponents Defensive Avg.	52.5	25.4	20.7	30:52	7-18	(2.7)	24-37	64.1%	272	(7.3)	44-290	(6.6)	(5.5)
Offense Road Games	50.8	21.0	20.4	30:41	8-13	(1.6)	24-37	64.0%	269	(7.2)	45-282	(6.2)	(5.6)
Defense (All Games)	54.1	25.6	20.4	30:10	8-15	(1.9)	23-35	65.5%	248	(7)	43-262	(6.1)	(4.8)
Opponents Offensive Avg.	54.5	27.8	20.1	30:06	7-19	(2.6)	23-36	63.7%	267	(7.4)	44-286	(6.6)	(5.3)
Defense Road Games	55.2	27.2	20.0	29:16	7-9	(1.3)	23-35	66.1%	254	(7.3)	41-263	(6.4)	(4.8)

GRAND RAPIDS - Current Season Performance
	Straight Up		Against Spread		Team					Opponent
	W-L	Units	W-L	O-U	Score	Half	Yards	YPP	TO	Score	Half	Yards	YPP	TO
All Games	3-7	-4	6-4	5-5	56.5	27.8	280.5	(7)	2.2	60.0	33.0	314.4	(6.9)	2.5
Home Games	2-3	-1	3-2	3-2	61.0	31.0	266.4	(6.9)	2.4	60.4	31.6	305.0	(6.6)	2.4
Last 3 Games	1-2	-1.1	2-1	1-2	51.3	30.7	269.7	(6.8)	1.7	55.3	32.0	326.3	(6.4)	1.7

GRAND RAPIDS - Current Season Statistics
					Rushing		Passing				Total
	PPG	Half	FD	TOP	ATT-YDS	YPR	CMP-ATT	PCT	YDS	PYA	ATT-YDS	YPP	YPPT
Offense (All Games)	56.5	27.8	18.7	29:49	9-35	(4.1)	20-32	64.4%	245	(7.7)	40-280	(7)	(5)
Opponents Defensive Avg.	52.9	25.9	20	30:02	8-21	(2.8)	23-36	63.1%	259	(7.1)	44-280	(6.4)	(5.3)
Offense Home Games	61.0	31.0	18.4	29:52	9-41	(4.6)	19-30	63.1%	226	(7.6)	39-266	(6.9)	(4.4)
Defense (All Games)	60.0	33.0	21.8	30:00	8-22	(2.9)	25-38	65.2%	292	(7.7)	46-314	(6.9)	(5.2)
Opponents Offensive Avg.	53.4	26.4	20.5	30:45	8-19	(2.5)	24-37	63.5%	264	(7.1)	45-282	(6.3)	(5.3)
Defense Home Games	60.4	31.6	20.6	29:46	8-24	(2.9)	23-38	61.6%	281	(7.4)	46-305	(6.6)	(5)

Average power rating of opponents played: TAMPA BAY 50.5, GRAND RAPIDS 49.5

Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.

Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.

All games in this series since 1996

TAMPA BAY is 6-2 against the spread versus GRAND RAPIDS since 1996

TAMPA BAY is 7-1 straight up against GRAND RAPIDS since 1996

5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

All games played at GRAND RAPIDS since 1996

TAMPA BAY is 5-2 against the spread versus GRAND RAPIDS since 1996

TAMPA BAY is 6-1 straight up against GRAND RAPIDS since 1996

4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games played at GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

								Rushing	Passing		Turnovers		Penalties
Date	Teams	Score	Line	Result	Half	FD	TOP	ATT-YDS	CMP-ATT	YDS	FL	INT	PEN-YDS
6/16/2007	TAMPA BAY	69	-7.5	SU ATS	38	18	29:30	3-12	22-37	269	3	1	4-34
	GRAND RAPIDS	40	110	Under	34	18	30:30	9-56	24-37	277	5	2	9-53
2/3/2006	TAMPA BAY	51	-7	SU ATS	21	22	31:55	12-23	26-37	271	1	1	5-36
	GRAND RAPIDS	43	92	Over	22	12	28:05	6-1	20-34	197	0	0	10-57

Team Line Action - Where the money is going!

Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring GRAND RAPIDS in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in TAMPA BAY games 46.7% of the time since 1996. (49-56)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in TAMPA BAY games 37.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-25)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in GRAND RAPIDS games 51.9% of the time since 1996. (55-51)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in GRAND RAPIDS games 55.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-16)
No Edge.

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in TAMPA BAY games 57.6% of the time since 1996. (53-39)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in TAMPA BAY games 59.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (22-15)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in GRAND RAPIDS games 53.8% of the time since 1996. (49-42)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in GRAND RAPIDS games 51.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (18-17)
No Edge.

Key Player Injuries

TAMPA BAY

[OL] Kenyatta Jones is expected to miss. - Calf - 05/14/08

[DL] Clifford Dukes IR - Hamstring - 04/22/08

[LB] Terrence Royal IR - Shoulder - 04/22/08

[DB] Byron Jones IR - Hamstring - 05/14/08

[DB] Daryon Brutley upgraded to probable. - Concussion - 05/14/08

[OL/DL] Ernest Certain IR - Back - 04/12/08

GRAND RAPIDS

[FB] Alan Krutulis is out indefinitely. - Knee - 04/23/08

[DL] Leif Murphy missed last game, "?". - Ankle - 05/10/08

[OL] Fitu Tuua IR - Ankle - 05/10/08

[OL] TJ Watkins missed last game, "?". - Ankle - 05/10/08

[FB] Whitney Bell IR - Ankle - 04/12/08

[FB] Chris Ryan IR - Groin - 03/14/08

[OL] Marcus Keys IR - Knee - 04/12/08

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping