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MILWAUKEE (64 - 68) at ST LOUIS (79 - 55)

Thursday, 9/3/2009 2:15 PM

MANNY PARRA (L) vs. JOHN SMOLTZ (R)

Board		Opening		Latest
		Line	Total	Line	Total
951	MILWAUKEE	+175	Ov 9,-120	+170	Ov 9,-120
952	ST LOUIS	-185	Un 9,+100	-180	Un 9,+100

	MILWAUKEE - Local News Coverage
	ST LOUIS - Local News Coverage
	BUSCH STADIUM - Weather

Power Line

The power line factors in the strength of both the two teams involved and the two starting pitchers. Where an estimated line differs significantly from the current line, there is value on a side, and the edge is indicated.

		Power Line
Team	Pitcher	Estimate	Edge
MILWAUKEE	PARRA	+201
ST LOUIS	SMOLTZ	-201

Team Trends and Angles

Records for relevant team and starting pitcher trends are listed below. Note: All records displayed in the starting pitcher trends table refer to the team\'s record when this pitcher starts. Not the win-loss of record of the pitcher himself.

MILWAUKEE team trends
	Win/Loss record						Over/Under
	Current Year		Last 3 Years		Since 1997		Current	Last 3	Since 1997
Description	W-L	Units	W-L	Units	W-L	Units	O-U	O-U	O-U
in all games	64-68	-10.9	238-222	-13.6	952-1124	-97.4	72-57	228-211	953-1023
when the total is 9 to 9.5	35-32	+0.1	120-105	-2.8	413-472	-45	37-28	105-107	407-419
as a road underdog of +150 to +175	3-5	-0.2	7-12	-1	66-118	-11.6	3-5	6-13	78-97
in road games	31-36	-1.7	104-127	-19.2	431-608	-60.2	37-28	107-111	468-526
on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5	22-14	+10.3	57-53	+6.2	191-219	+12.2	22-13	50-51	190-194
in September games	0-2	-2	26-30	-11.5	136-184	-35	2-0	30-21	153-151
when playing on Thursday	7-8	-1.4	19-30	-15.8	106-133	-14.2	10-5	27-21	114-114
against division opponents	32-30	-1.6	122-98	+9.9	450-505	-16.3	33-27	113-92	451-456
in day games	16-26	-13.6	75-86	-20.7	335-402	-44.4	19-22	82-72	350-352
in games played on a grass field	64-65	-7.9	235-216	-10.8	890-1037	-90.1	71-55	224-206	896-936
against right-handed starters	46-53	-13.9	159-163	-24.7	700-837	-70.5	50-47	145-159	689-769
after allowing 10 runs or more	6-6	-1.2	17-14	-0.2	86-94	+1.6	6-6	14-16	62-105
after a loss	34-33	-4.8	111-108	-13	507-611	-48.6	30-36	101-110	499-568
when playing against a team with a winning record	26-18	+8.9	90-86	-0.6	401-533	-34.9	24-20	84-88	429-472
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season	5-9	-3.4	31-45	-16.5	174-271	-45.2	8-6	38-36	207-222

ST LOUIS team trends
Win/Loss record Over/Under
Current Year Last 3 Years Since 1997 Current Last 3 Since 1997
Description W-L Units W-L Units W-L Units O-U O-U O-U
in all games 79-55 +12.4 243-215 +17 1163-972 +28.8 55-72 201-225 1014-1010
when the total is 9 to 9.5 30-21 +6.3 114-109 +1.8 508-410 +14.7 15-34 91-113 437-422
as a home favorite of -175 to -200 7-1 +5 11-4 +3.7 84-31 +25.7 2-6 6-8 50-58
in home games 43-25 +7.7 132-98 +10.2 633-436 +33.3 25-41 93-121 493-518
at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 19-8 +8.8 63-46 +6.3 288-200 +8.7 7-19 47-52 237-217
in September games 2-0 +2 27-31 -2.8 176-143 +10.8 2-0 28-26 164-141
when playing on Thursday 13-4 +7.3 30-27 +0.1 138-126 -13 5-12 20-35 117-132
against division opponents 36-25 +4.8 115-103 +1.2 530-436 -9.3 24-34 90-113 458-464
in day games 25-22 -2.8 79-71 +2.1 427-321 +54.9 21-24 67-72 357-357
in games played on a grass field 79-55 +12.4 243-215 +17 1102-897 +46.2 55-72 201-225 950-948
against left-handed starters 25-17 +3.9 80-73 +1.2 306-286 -32.7 15-24 56-85 272-289
after a win 44-33 +3.2 123-114 -2.7 624-528 -16 29-43 101-123 552-539
after 3 or more consecutive wins 12-10 -1.4 27-31 -10.4 176-149 -17 7-13 28-27 152-152
when playing against a team with a losing record 41-20 +13.6 126-98 +11 600-446 +15.3 22-34 102-104 514-483
when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season 23-7 +11.2 61-38 +13.2 318-225 +16.2 10-17 48-41 269-252

Team Statistics

MILWAUKEE - Current Season Performance
	Team Records			Team			Opponent
	W-L	Units	O-U	Runs	Avg	OBP	Runs	Avg	OBP
All Games	64-68	-10.9	72-57	4.9	0.262	0.337	5.1	0.269	0.341
Road Games	31-36	-1.7	37-28	5.0	0.265	0.336	5.3	0.278	0.349
vs Right-handed Starters	46-53	-13.9	50-47	4.7	0.258	0.331	5.1	0.267	0.341

MILWAUKEE - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team Batting	Team Batting															Team Fielding
	Runs	AVG	OBP	G	AB	H	EB	HR	/AB	RBI	BB	SO	SB	LOB	GIDP	ERR	DP	OSB
All Games	4.9	0.262	0.337	132	4467	1171	376	152	0.03	622	503	988	48	971	128	78	124	66
Road Games	5.0	0.265	0.336	67	2324	616	175	68	0.03	325	249	515	30	499	66	46	66	31
Righty Starters	4.7	0.258	0.331	99	3310	853	272	108	0.03	448	360	733	43	705	98	54	92	53

MILWAUKEE - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
	ERA	WHIP	IP	R	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	W-L	SV	BSV	Pct.
All Games	4.23	1.337	425.7	207	200	398	53	171	344	20-20	35	17	67.3%
Road Games	4.46	1.348	207.7	106	103	196	27	84	154	8-9	17	7	70.8%

ST LOUIS - Current Season Performance
	Team Records			Team			Opponent
	W-L	Units	O-U	Runs	Avg	OBP	Runs	Avg	OBP
All Games	79-55	+12.5	55-72	4.5	0.261	0.327	3.9	0.258	0.314
Home Games	43-25	+7.7	25-41	4.3	0.263	0.332	3.6	0.248	0.305
vs Left-handed Starters	25-17	+4	15-24	3.9	0.251	0.316	3.8	0.264	0.318

ST LOUIS - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team Batting	Team Batting															Team Fielding
	Runs	AVG	OBP	G	AB	H	EB	HR	/AB	RBI	BB	SO	SB	LOB	GIDP	ERR	DP	OSB
All Games	4.5	0.261	0.327	134	4474	1167	367	136	0.03	573	441	828	56	931	122	79	139	34
Home Games	4.3	0.263	0.332	68	2199	579	179	61	0.03	278	225	392	30	472	65	37	64	21
Lefty Starters	3.9	0.251	0.316	42	1391	349	112	39	0.03	161	132	281	14	294	35	25	52	8

ST LOUIS - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
	ERA	WHIP	IP	R	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	W-L	SV	BSV	Pct.
All Games	3.82	1.324	355.7	167	151	323	39	148	269	17-12	40	10	80%
Home Games	3.89	1.286	187.3	88	81	170	20	71	146	10-3	23	3	88.5%

Recent Results And Upcoming Games

Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, totals, game scores and starting pitchers for the respective teams are displayed.

MILWAUKEE - Schedule
Date	Team Starter	Opponent	Opp Starter	Score	W/L	Line	Tot.	O/U
8/21/2009	LOOPER(R)	@ WASHINGTON	MARTIN(R)	7-3	W	-120	9.5 un	O
8/22/2009	BURNS(R)	@ WASHINGTON	LANNAN(L)	11-9	W	125	9.5 un	O
8/23/2009	PARRA(L)	@ WASHINGTON	STAMMEN(R)	3-8	L	-115	10 un	O
8/24/2009	GALLARDO(R)	@ WASHINGTON	BALESTER(R)	7-1	W	-175	9 un	U
8/25/2009	SUPPAN(R)	CINCINNATI	ARROYO(R)	6-8	L	-125	9 ev	O
8/26/2009	LOOPER(R)	CINCINNATI	WELLS(R)	3-4	L	-190	9.5 ov	U
8/27/2009	BUSH(R)	CINCINNATI	LEHR(R)	5-8	L	-160	9 ev	O
8/28/2009	PARRA(L)	PITTSBURGH	DUKE(L)	8-6	W	-135	9 un	O
8/29/2009	GALLARDO(R)	PITTSBURGH	HART(R)	7-3	W	-250	8 ev	O
8/30/2009	SUPPAN(R)	PITTSBURGH	OHLENDORF(R)	4-1	W	-120	9.5 un	U
9/1/2009	LOOPER(R)	@ ST LOUIS	PINEIRO(R)	6-7	L	165	8.5 ev	O
9/2/2009	BUSH(R)	@ ST LOUIS	CARPENTER(R)	3-10	L	230	7.5 ev	O
9/3/2009	PARRA(L)	@ ST LOUIS	SMOLTZ(R)
9/4/2009		SAN FRANCISCO
9/5/2009		SAN FRANCISCO
9/6/2009		SAN FRANCISCO
9/7/2009		ST LOUIS
9/8/2009		ST LOUIS
9/9/2009		ST LOUIS

ST LOUIS - Schedule
Date	Team Starter	Opponent	Opp Starter	Score	W/L	Line	Tot.	O/U
8/20/2009	PINEIRO(R)	@ SAN DIEGO	STAUFFER(R)	5-1	W	-155	7.5 ev	U
8/21/2009	LOHSE(R)	@ SAN DIEGO	RICHARD(L)	0-4	L	-130	8 un	U
8/22/2009	CARPENTER(R)	@ SAN DIEGO	CORREIA(R)	7-0	W	-190	6.5 ov	O
8/23/2009	SMOLTZ(R)	@ SAN DIEGO	CARRILLO(R)	5-2	W	-160	9 ev	U
8/25/2009	WAINWRIGHT(R)	HOUSTON	RODRIGUEZ(L)	1-0	W	-170	7.5 un	U
8/26/2009	PINEIRO(R)	HOUSTON	OSWALT(R)	3-2	W	-140	7.5 un	U
8/27/2009	CARPENTER(R)	HOUSTON	MOEHLER(R)	3-4	L	-260	7.5 un	U
8/28/2009	SMOLTZ(R)	WASHINGTON	LANNAN(L)	3-2	W	-180	9 un	U
8/29/2009	BOGGS(R)	WASHINGTON	STAMMEN(R)	9-4	W	-160	9.5 un	O
8/30/2009	WAINWRIGHT(R)	WASHINGTON	MOCK(R)	2-1	W	-285	8 un	U
9/1/2009	PINEIRO(R)	MILWAUKEE	LOOPER(R)	7-6	W	-175	8.5 ev	O
9/2/2009	CARPENTER(R)	MILWAUKEE	BUSH(R)	10-3	W	-255	7.5 ev	O
9/3/2009	SMOLTZ(R)	MILWAUKEE	PARRA(L)
9/4/2009		@ PITTSBURGH
9/5/2009		@ PITTSBURGH
9/6/2009		@ PITTSBURGH
9/7/2009		@ MILWAUKEE
9/8/2009		@ MILWAUKEE
9/9/2009		@ MILWAUKEE

Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance

Listed below are the most recent results and season statistics for both starting pitchers involved.

MANNY PARRA recent results and season statistics

MANNY PARRA - Season Statistics in Games Started
	Starter Statistics												Team Records
	ERA	WHIP	W-L	G	IP	IP/S	R	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	W-L	Units	O-U
All Starts	6.66	1.870	9-10	23	123	5.3	99	91	163	18	67	98	9-14	-6.1	14-9
Road Starts	7.25	1.896	5-7	13	67	5.2	62	54	93	13	34	46	5-8	-2.5	10-3
Last 3 Starts	8.22	2.087	1-2	3	15.3	5.1	18	14	24	6	8	5	1-2	-1.4	2-1

JOHN SMOLTZ recent results and season statistics

JOHN SMOLTZ - Season Statistics in Games Started
	Starter Statistics												Team Records
	ERA	WHIP	W-L	G	IP	IP/S	R	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	W-L	Units	O-U
All Starts	6.71	1.490	3-5	10	51	5.1	38	38	66	8	10	48	4-6	-4	5-5
Home Starts	5.32	1.409	1-2	4	22	5.5	13	13	27	1	4	22	2-2	-1.6	1-3
Last 3 Starts	5.65	1.465	1-1	3	14.3	4.8	9	9	16	2	5	18	2-1	+1	1-2

Head-to-Head Series History

Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.

Games over the last 3 seasons

MILWAUKEE is 22-19 (+0.5 Units) against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

19 of 39 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.8 Units, Under=-1.5 Units)

Games this season

ST LOUIS is 6-5 (+0.9 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season

6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

All games at ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

MILWAUKEE is 11-9 (+2.9 Units) against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

Games played at ST LOUIS this season.

MILWAUKEE is 3-2 (+1.5 Units) against ST LOUIS this season

4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.0 Units)

						Team Stats					Starting Pitcher Stats
Date	Teams	Score	Line	Total	Result	H	HR	SB	LOB	ERR	Starter	W/L	IP	ER	H	BB
9/2/2009	MILWAUKEE	3	+230		Over	10	0	0	11	0	BUSH(R)	L	3.3	8	11	2
	ST LOUIS	10	-255	7.5 ev	Win	16	0	1	11	0	CARPENTER(R)	W	6	3	8	3
9/1/2009	MILWAUKEE	6	+165		Over	9	1	0	5	0	LOOPER(R)		6	4	8	1
	ST LOUIS	7	-175	8.5 ev	Win	10	2	0	4	0	PINEIRO(R)	W	7	4	7	1
7/9/2009	ST LOUIS	5	-120			11	1	1	8	0	PINEIRO(R)	W	9	1	3	0
	MILWAUKEE	1	+110	9 un	Under	3	0	0	0	1	PARRA(L)		7	0	3	1
7/8/2009	ST LOUIS	4	+110		Under	8	0	0	11	1	WELLEMEYER(R)		4	4	7	4
	MILWAUKEE	5	-120	9.5 un	Win	10	1	0	12	1	SUPPAN(R)		5.7	4	6	4
7/7/2009	ST LOUIS	5	+130			10	2	2	12	1	WAINWRIGHT(R)	W	8.3	0	7	2
	MILWAUKEE	0	-140	7.5 un	Under	7	0	1	8	0	GALLARDO(R)	L	5	4	6	5

Pitcher Versus Team Past History

Listed below is a summary of past starts each starter has made against their current opponent.

MANNY PARRA vs. ST LOUIS since 1997

PARRA is 1-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 1.445.

His team\'s record is 4-4 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.6 units)

JOHN SMOLTZ vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997

SMOLTZ is 3-0 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 0.932.

His team\'s record is 4-1 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

Team Line Action - Where the money is going!

Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to "wise guy\'s" selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a "read" on a given team.

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring MILWAUKEE in this game.

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MILWAUKEE games 53.3% of the time since 1997. (873-766, +39.0 units)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MILWAUKEE games 56% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (224-176, +31.7 units)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ST LOUIS games 49.9% of the time since 1997. (850-852, -66.7 units)

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ST LOUIS games 49.2% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (193-199, -30.0 units)

No Edge.

The betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game.

The betting public is correct when moving the total in MILWAUKEE games 50.4% of the time since 1997. (645-635, -76.8 units)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in MILWAUKEE games 43.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (97-125, -43.3 units)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in ST LOUIS games 49.8% of the time since 1997. (693-699, -107.6 units)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in ST LOUIS games 50.5% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (110-108, -11.9 units)

No Edge.

Key Player Injuries

MILWAUKEE

[P] 06/04/2009 - David Riske 60-day DL (4/10) ( Elbow )

[2B] 06/14/2009 - Rickie Weeks 60-day DL (5/17), out for the season ( Wrist )

[P] 07/12/2009 - David Bush 15-day DL (6/21) ( Tricep )

[P] 07/25/2009 - Seth McClung 15-day DL (7/25) ( Elbow )

[P] 07/31/2009 - Jeff Suppan 15-day DL (7/28) ( Oblique )

[RF] 08/02/2009 - Corey Hart 15-day DL (8/2) ( Appendix )

ST LOUIS

[3B] 03/29/2009 - Troy Glaus 15-day DL (3/27) ( Shoulder )

[P] 03/29/2009 - Jaime Garcia 15-day DL (3/27) ( Elbow )

[SS] 08/05/2009 - Brendan Ryan "?" Friday vs Pittsburgh Pirates ( Ankle )

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