Are the football betting deities bipolar, or do they just have a cruel streak?

We realize that question could be asked by almost any gambler, not just ourselves. But it does seem that random circumstances inevitably mitigate against bettors who must endure an ungodly amount of negativity enroute to a few precious golden moments.

That perhaps overly dramatic lead-in is a roundabout way of letting you all know that in our recent matchup with Wayne Root in the Stardust Invitational Handicapping Tournament we did prevail. But not without suffering the worst bad beat of our life.

Here are the picks:
WAYNE ROOT: Florida State +13 (W), North Carolina +6.5 (L), Stanford +7.5 (L), Kansas State -14.5 (W), UCLA -2.5 (L), Michigan State +4.5 (L), Best Bet Seahawks +3 (L).

BUZZ DALY: Miami-FL -13 (L), Oklahoma +3 (W), UAB -3 (W), Fresno State -23.5 (L), Carolina/Dallas Under 34 (W), Jaguars -2 (L), Best Bet UNLV -7.5 (L).

Our winning record was an underwhelming 3-4, but it was just good enough to top Wayne, who went 2-5. However, Wayne was 2-4 going into Monday night’s game. If Seattle would have covered, Wayne would have won despite the same 3-4 record, as the Seahawks were his best bet. Our best bet had lost. But it should have never come to the point where we needed San Francisco -3 on the road to eke out a 28-21 win. In a perfect world, we would have been 4-3 and the issue settled on Saturday.

However, our play on Fresno State -23.5 vs. SMU was the joker. Fresno State was leading 24-7, with the last play of the game underway. We needed nothing short of a miracle – just an INT in the end zone and a 100-yard return for a touchdown would do. Damned if we didn’t get it. The interception and the touchdown, that is … not the miracle. With the score now 30-7, all we needed was the extra point to seal the impossible ATS comeback and clinch the competition with Wayne. Incredibly, the referees let Fresno State celebrate and run off the field. SMU also slunk off. The officials simply melted into the crowd. Final score: 30-7. The extra point was not attempted, and was a casualty of the TD being scored with no time left on the clock.

The TV announcers had not a clue that an extra point should be kicked. Neither did the zebras. So their ineptitude aborted our little miracle. The Western Athletic Conference officials’ utter incompetence was noticed in Vegas, but the result was chiseled in stone.

Earlier in the game, we had an inkling about the zebras’ indifference to doing their job, when an incomplete pass was thrown and the clock kept on ticking as if it were a running play.

And so, we had to view the Monday night game with a lot more pressure than we would have liked.

Despite his critics, who paint Root as a marketer and not a handicapper, Wayne is a formidable opponent. To believe otherwise would have been foolish and presumptuous. But we were happy with the contest on the line to be rooting for the 49ers and Mariucci instead of Holmgren and the Seahawks.

The hour-long competition, aired over KDWN AM 720 in Las Vegas, was peppered with lots of interesting information. Moderator John Kelly did a yeoman like job eliciting tidbits from both contestants. Wayne said he is trying to put together a real handicapping show which would be a legitimate program, as opposed to the infomercials sponsored by touts, which currently glut the airwaves.

So, it’s on to the second round of the Tournament. Ideally, next time we’ll try to pick a little better and have fewer butterflies flitting around in our stomach. This Friday: Cesar Robaina vs. Karol Lucan in Round One, Week Six.

TOOTHPICK TO A LUMBERYARD. William Caesar, the big mucky muck at Carib Sportsbook, has always maintained, “You can’t come into Carib with a toothpick and walk out with a lumber yard.”

Well, a 19-year-old bettor named Mike has William contemplating a new slogan. During a period of 13 days, starting on September 30, Mike has run a postup of $7.25 on a prepaid ATM into $140,000.

That is definitely one for the Guinness World Book of Records. Is it true? We had our doubts. But after talking with Mike, who hails from the northeast and counts the Red Sox, Patriots and Celtics among his favorite teams, we believe he is the real deal.

He is just the right combination of smarts, innocence and the arrogance of youth. You couldn’t invent him. Mike started out wagering with his uncle, making bets of $10 to $20, which were done with the approval of his parents. A rabid sports fan, he is hopeful that this is the year the Celtics win their division in the NBA and go on to contend for the title.

However, he doesn’t bet with his heart, and will make plays against his favorite teams when he thinks they cannot win.

Today Mike’s action is a lot bigger than the bets his uncle booked. Surprisingly, his parents are not enamored with his gambling success. They are urging him to stop it and get a job. Mike, of course, has no such intentions. Not as long as he can pick winners.

His latest exploit, according to Carib’s Caesar, was to win $45K on the 49ers vs. Seattle on Monday night. We can confirm Mike's play, although not the size of it, since we spoke with him on Monday and asked his opinion on the game. We were very pleased to hear him say he was pretty much decided on the 49ers.

Mike has been betting offshore for three years. He doesn’t remember how he got started with Carib, but the young punter isn’t concerned about shopping lines, so he doesn’t have any other accounts.

Using a somewhat contrarian handicapping process, Mike calls various free pick phones to get their plays. He has noticed that many services give out the same plays. Reasoning that these are not exactly prime picks, Mike likes to go against consensus free plays. However, he also knows a well regarded handicapper with whom he checks his selections.

We noted that Carib has a 20-cent line in baseball and wondered if Mike bet into it. It turns out he is not the least bit deterred by that number. He claims he has always been good at picking and is more concerned with winners than the lines. Although he says his record has always been good, he didn’t always show a profit.

“I used to bet too many four- and five-team parlays. Four out of five isn’t very good if you lost the bet,” he admitted. Now he prefers straight plays. Mike also plays with local books, but has been kicked out by some shops. That’s why he likes Carib. “They don’t care if I win,” he told us.

After pointing out that Mike had hit for a nice score on the Monday night game, Caesar said, “He won all that money and Carib still had a helluva week.”

Mike’s spectacular success all started with a two-team parlay on the Ravens +305 vs. Denver and the over in that game. Those proceeds were then parlayed on the Twins +170 and over in that game. That upped his bankroll to over $300.

With that ammunition, he bet fearlessly and with both fists, picking winner after winner. Mike is living proof that truth is most definitely stranger than fiction.

Caesar does not believe it will continue forever, but he does concede that Mike has already turned his toothpick into a lumberyard at Carib’s expense.”

Please send comments, questions, etc. to buzzdaly@aol.com.

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08/22/02