StatFox FREE Weekly Newsletter
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College & Pro Football Systems & FREE FoxSheets
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Brought to you by BetCRIS -where the line originates
The StatFox 2004 Football Handicapping Summary report has again been updated for this week. Click here to download the entire article and charts.
One of the more successful statistical angles StatFox has come across has been self-described as the "Outplay Factor". The "Outplay Factor" is calculated by taking the teams offensive or defensive PPG minus their opponents defensive and offensive averages, respectively. (Positive: good for offense, Negative: good for defense.) These numbers can easily be retrieved from the FoxSheets' Advanced Team StatsTable. Teams with an advantage in this calculation have been very successful this season, particularly as underdogs.
Here are the top 25 College Football and top 10 Pro Outplay Factor teams, and their corresponding rating:
COLLEGE
USC 27.0
OKLAHOMA 26.2
CALIFORNIA 23.9
TEXAS 22.6
AUBURN 21.5
LOUISVILLE 21.2
UTAH 20.5
BOISE ST 18.4
GEORGIA 17.8
MIAMI 17.2
LSU 17.0
ARKANSAS 16.1
BOWLING GREEN 16.0
VIRGINIA TECH 14.7
OKLAHOMA ST 14.5
VIRGINIA 14.4
FLORIDA ST 14.3
TEXAS A&M 14.2
PURDUE 13.8
FLORIDA 13.8
ARIZONA ST 13.7
FRESNO ST 13.4
MICHIGAN 13.3
TENNESSEE 10.6
TEXAS TECH 10.2
PRO
NEW ENGLAND 10.7
PHILADELPHIA 9.0
INDIANAPOLIS 8.3
SAN DIEGO 7.8
PITTSBURGH 7.3
BALTIMORE 6.2
NY JETS 4.2
DENVER 3.8
NY GIANTS 2.3
KANSAS CITY 2.2
Because of the success of these systems last week, here are again the Top 3 purely Statistical Systems with the plays that qualify this weekend!
1)PRO - Any underdog with a "Composite Outplay Factor" Edge - (24-9 ATS in 2004, 73%)
Qualifiers for 11/21: ARIZONA, BUFFALO, NY GIANTS
2)PRO - Any team with an edge of 1 or more Yards Per Play on Offense over its opponent - (31-19 ATS in 2004, 62%)
Qualifiers for 11/21: DALLAS, INDIANAPOLIS, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE
3)COLLEGE - Favorites of 20 points or more - 15 or more Points Per Game Edge- Offense (29-18 ATS in 2004, 62%)
Qualifiers for 11/20: BOISE ST, LOUISVILLE, UTEP, UTAH
FoxSheets members can purchase the entire list of QUALIFYING PLAYS for the Top 75 FoxSheets Football Systems by clicking here. Just $15!
** If you're not a FoxSheets member, you can still receive the systems simply by registering for simply a week of the FoxSheets, then clicking here to see the Qualifying Plays!
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FREE FoxSheet Links |
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Brought to you by: BetOnUSA.com
provided by StatFox have rapidly become the most utilized features on the weekly e-ticker newsletter. Here are some quick and easy links to the FREE FoxSheets in each of the various sports:
College Football
Pro Football
College Basketball
Pro Basketball
NASCAR |
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MICHIGAN VS OHIO STATE
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Brought to you by TCBets.com - Sports, Horses, great wagering bonuses!
One of the biggest rivalries in all of sports takes center stage at StatFox as the showdown between Michigan and Ohio State is this week's FREE College Football FoxSheet. Seventh-ranked Michigan (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) hopes to clinch a second straight outright Big Ten Conference title and Rose Bowl berth Saturday when it travels to the "Horseshoe" in Columbus. The Wolverines have won eight straight games, and are coming off a 42-20 rout of Northwestern on Saturday. It was their 13th consecutive league win. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes (6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS) would like nothing better than to spoil the hopes of their hated arch-rivals. Ohio State comes in with a degree of momentum itself, having won three its last four contests. Michigan leads the series 11-4-1 since 1988, but the teams have split the last six encounters.
Michigan was installed as a 3-1/2 point opening line favorite but that quickly shot up to 5-1/2. The FoxSheet seems to indicate that Ohio State could have a sizable edge at that spread. The Buckeyes boast edges in the Super Situations, the Game Estimator, and the Power Trends. This is one of the more impressive trends favoring the hosts this week:
OHIO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was OHIO ST 29.7, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 1*)
OSU has lost just once at home this year, that coming to Wisconsin, and is 19-1 SU in its L20 games here. Michigan meanwhile has struggled as a road favorite and against upper level teams:
MICHIGAN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
This week's FREE College Football FoxSheet is loaded with great information, including the highly regarded "StatFox View". Make sure to visit the report before finalizing your plays on this game, as it is scheduled for Saturday at 1 PM Et. Plus, don't forget to visit StatFox.com to find out the details on how to get access to this week's UPDATED Football Systems Chart and Qualified Plays. |
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ATLANTA VS NY GIANTS |
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This week's FREE NFL FoxSheet
Brought to you by TCBets.com - Sports, Horses, great wagering bonuses!
A battle of NFC playoff contenders is this week's FREE NFL FoxSheet, as StatFox highlights the contest between Atlanta and the Giants in New York. This game not only sports importance in the playoff race, it also marks the first start of NFL top draft pick Eli Manning, who gets the call at QB in replacement of struggling Kurt Warner for the G-Men. He will need to perform well for the hosts to have any chance as a 2-1/2 point underdog to the 7-2 Falcons, who of course boast their own former top draft pick, QB Michael Vick. New York, currently finds itself at 5-4, three games behind NFC East leader Philadelphia, but still in the thick of the wildcard race. Meanwhile, Atlanta has it on cruise control in the NFC South, leading the division by a comfortable three games with just seven left. Rookie Head Coach Jim Mora, Jr. hopes to avoid a letdown by his troops though the rest of the way.
New York comes off back to back losses for the first time this year, unfortunately, both came against sub-.500 teams. Much of the problems can be attributed to personnel issues, not only the QB controversy, but to key injuries to the defensive line. The schedule the rest of the way is ominous so the Giants can't afford to lose their home games the rest of the way. Their last two games at the Meadowlands were both setbacks, coming to Chicago and Detroit. That has only added to this discouraging trend:
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. On the other sidelines, Atlanta has played well on the road, winning three of four games, both SU & ATS. The Falcons are also 3-0 SU & ATS in their last three trips when visiting the Giants.
This week's FREE NFL FoxSheet is loaded with great handicapping information for analyzing the spread, total, money line, halftime line, and teaser line. Highlighted are a number of great ATS Super Situations indicating New York has a great shot at covering the number, including this one:
Play AGAINST - Road favorites (ATLANTA) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.
(37-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.1%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*)
This game qualifies for the increasingly successful FoxSheets NFL Star System, 16-13 ATS in 2004, 31-14 ATS in 2003. Find out more about this system and many others by downloading this week's UPDATED 2004 FoxSheets Football Report!
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FREE NASCAR FoxSheet…This week only! Ford 400 |
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:With the 2004 Nextel Cup Championship race hanging in the balance, the circuit moves on to Miami-Homestead Speedway for the season's final event, the Ford 400. The "Chase for the Championship" has essentially come down to three drivers with Kurt Busch leading Jimmie Johnson by 18 points and Jeff Gordon by 21 points. Fourth place Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and fifth place Mark Martin are still mathematically alive at 72 & 82 points pack, but they each face long odds to come out on top after Sunday. The drama will focus on 267 laps around the 1-1/2 mile oval that has recently undergone a drastic transformation, with banking having been increased from 8 to 20 degrees prior to last year's race. Essentially, the venue went from being a "flat track" to a genuine superspeedway in the matter of a year, so the initial four races run here from '99-'02 have little bearing on the prospects for this weekend's event. Miami-Homestead Speedway now closely resembles the tracks at Atlanta and Charlotte, and not surprisingly, the top three in the 2003 Ford 400 were Bobby Labonte, Kevin Harvick, and Johnson, all three of which are known for their success at those latter establishments. Therefore, with the "Chase" standings in mind, fans of Johnson and the Lowe's #48 machine have to be excited about their prospects for taking home the series title. Here are the current standings heading into Sunday's race:
| Place |
Driver |
Pts |
PtsBehind |
| 1 |
Kurt Busch |
6346 |
PtsBehind |
| 2 |
Jimmie Johnson |
6328 |
18 |
| 3 |
Jeff Gordon |
6325 |
21 |
| 4 |
Dale Earnhardt, Jr |
6274 |
72 |
| 5 |
Mark Martin |
6264 |
82 |
| 6 |
Tony Stewart |
6161 |
185 |
| 7 |
Ryan Newman |
6102 |
244 |
| 8 |
Matt Kenseth |
5963 |
383 |
| 9 |
Elliott Sadler |
5963 |
383 |
| 10 |
Jeremy Mayfield |
5942 |
404 |
If the early indications of the StatFox race simulator hold true, Johnson will be the one celebrating on Sunday, not only a victory in the race, but a first series championship as well. He is certainly deserving of the honor as without question he has been the circuit's most dominant driver over the full 36 race span. His win last week at the Southern 500 in Darlington was the third year driver's eighth trip to victory lane this season in Nextel Cup racing. A win on Sunday would guarantee him at least 185 points, and with Busch projected in fifth, his final point margin would be at least 2 points, factoring in all combinations of laps led bonus scoring. Rest assured though, Johnson's teammate and car owner Gordon, the current third place chase contender and would be champion under normal season circumstances, will have something to say about the outcome.
See the full NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer by clicking here.
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