StatFox FREE Weekly Newsletter
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Quick links to the new StatFox.com's most popular pages
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You, the users, have spoken and these are your choices for some of the most popular pages on the new StatFox.com site!
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College Basketball FREE FoxSheet: FREE comprehensive handicapping analysis of top College Basketball Board Games!
NBA FREE FoxSheet: FREE FoxSheets for pro basketball games. |
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College Football "Defensive Outplay Factor"
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In college football, the "Defensive Outplay Factor" has proved a very valuable calculation, hitting at a 57.7% clip this season for home teams, including 36-18 ATS over the last two weeks. If you recall from last week's StatFox E-newsletter, the "Outplay Factor" is calculated by taking the teams offensive or defensive PPG minus their opponents defensive and offensive averages, respectively. (Positive: good for offense, Negative: good for defense.) The calculation is essentially an effort to find out which teams are "outplaying" their competition. These are the top 20 "Defensive Outplay Factor" teams in college football. (Note: USC, Texas, Boston College, Louisville, Georgia, Maryland, and Virginia Tech all play at home this Thanksgiving weekend.)
| Rank |
Team |
Def OF |
| 1 |
OKLAHOMA |
-14.7 |
| 2 |
USC |
-13.1 |
| 3 |
AUBURN |
-12.3 |
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TEXAS |
-12.3 |
| 5 |
FLORIDA ST |
-11.6 |
| 6 |
CALIFORNIA |
-11.3 |
| 7 |
GEORGIA |
-11.2 |
| 8 |
LSU |
-10.0 |
| 9 |
BOSTON COLLEGE |
-9.6 |
| 10 |
NEW MEXICO |
-9.4 |
| 11 |
VIRGINIA TECH |
-9.3 |
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WISCONSIN |
-9.3 |
| 13 |
IOWA |
-8.2 |
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PENN ST |
-8.2 |
| 15 |
TROY ST |
-7.9 |
| 16 |
MARYLAND |
-7.7 |
| 17 |
VIRGINIA |
-7.6 |
| 18 |
FRESNO ST |
-7.4 |
| 19 |
LOUISVILLE |
-7.3 |
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MIAMI |
-7.3 |
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OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH
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Big 12 rivals will pit strength vs. strength when they do battle on Saturday in Lubbock, TX. The showdown between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech is this week's FREE College Football FoxSheet. The Cowboys (7-3 SU & ATS) come in with the nation's 8th ranked rushing attack, gaining 252 yards per game. They have outrushed all but three opponents this season, ironically losing all three of those games in which they failed to do so. OSU should have a distinct advantage in that regard this week as it faces a Texas Tech team that lives and dies via the pass. The Red Raiders are easily the nation's top ranked passing unit, averaging just shy of 400 yards per game. They bring in a 6-4 SU & 4-6 ATS mark. This is the regular season finale for both schools and each will be looking to make a final favorable impression on the bowl committees.
Texas Tech has dominated the head to head series of late, winning the last four straight up and ATS in Lubbock, and seven of the last 8 ATS overall. Last year the team's played a thriller, with host OSU coming away with a 51-49 win as a 5 point favorite. Both teams compiled over 650 yards of offense in that game. This year's contest will be hard pressed to match that astronomical total, but still offense should carry the day. In general, that hasn't serve the Cowboys' very well historically as you'll see by this top StatFox Matchup Power Trends:
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 27.3, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 0*)
On the other hand, run dominated offenses have fallen right into the hands of Tech's style:
TEXAS TECH is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992. The average score was TEXAS TECH 26.2, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 2*)
This week's FREE College Football FoxSheet showcase game promises to be filled with offensive fireworks. Get a jump on handicapping this game by visiting the FREE FoxSheet, which is loaded with great information, including StatFox Super Situations, a slew of Top Power Trends, plus, the highly regarded "StatFox View". The game is scheduled for Saturday at 3:30 PM Et. Plus, don't forget to visit StatFox.com to find out the details on how to get access to this week's UPDATED Football Systems Chart and Qualified Plays.
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NFL Power Ratings
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Anyone who has been following the StatFox NFL Power Ratings this year is sure to have had some success. They are winning at a 55.3% clip for the entire 2004 season and are 19-9 ATS (67.8%) over the past two weeks. Here are the current StatFox NFL power ratings heading into Thanksgiving weekend. Keep in mind that StatFox adds 3 points for each home team.
| Rank |
Team |
PwrRtg |
| 1 |
INDIANAPOLIS |
32 |
| 2 |
NEW ENGLAND |
31 |
| 3 |
PHILADELPHIA |
29 |
| 4 |
PITTSBURGH |
28 |
| 5 |
SAN DIEGO |
26 |
| 6 |
GREEN BAY |
25 |
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NY JETS |
25 |
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BALTIMORE |
25 |
| 9 |
DENVER |
24 |
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SEATTLE |
24 |
| 11 |
KANSAS CITY |
23 |
| 12 |
BUFFALO |
22 |
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TAMPA BAY |
22 |
| 14 |
ATLANTA |
21 |
| 15 |
CINCINNATI |
20 |
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CAROLINA |
20 |
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TENNESSEE |
20 |
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MINNESOTA |
20 |
| 19 |
NY GIANTS |
19 |
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ST LOUIS |
19 |
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JACKSONVILLE |
19 |
| 22 |
MIAMI |
17 |
| 23 |
CLEVELAND |
16 |
| 24 |
CHICAGO |
15 |
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DETROIT |
15 |
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HOUSTON |
15 |
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WASHINGTON |
15 |
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NEW ORLEANS |
15 |
| 29 |
ARIZONA |
14 |
| 30 |
DALLAS |
12 |
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OAKLAND |
12 |
| 32 |
SAN FRANCISCO |
10 |
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WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH |
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Inter-conference foes, each rich in tradition and Super Bowl prowess, meet in this week FREE NFL FoxSheet showcase game. Unfortunately for Washington, only host Pittsburgh appears poised to add anything meaningful to team lore this year, as the Steelers come in with just one loss and riding a eight game winning streak. Perhaps even more impressive, they have covered the number is every game throughout the streak. Washington, on the other hand, has gone just 2-7 SU & ATS since winning its season opener against Tampa Bay. Defensively, both teams have played well, each ranking near the top of the league in many categories. However, on the offensive side of the ball is where Pittsburgh has separated itself from this week's foe. The Steelers have enjoyed one of the most balanced attacks in the NFL, riding the "Bus" on the ground, and the steady play of rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger through the air. Conversely, the Redskins have already changed quarterbacks, and at 3.7 yards per rush, have been unable to generate any consistency in the running game with newly acquired RB Clinton Portis. The odds are clearly against the visitors this week, and hence, oddsmakers have installed Pittsburgh as a 10-1/2 point favorite.
These teams haven't met since the 2000 season when host Pittsburgh whipped the Redskins 24-3 as a 2-1/2 point favorite. Including that game, the Steelers are 6-1-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games hosting teams from the NFC. They dominated NFC front-runner Philadelphia 27-3 just three weeks ago. Washington has already lost three times SU & ATS against the AFC this year, despite allowing just 17 points in each contest. It will need to limit Pittsburgh to a similar total here to have any chance come Sunday as the Steelers defense has approached levels of dominance in the past month. In fact, in their last four games, they have allowed just 42 yards per game on the ground. The StatFox Estimator is consequently calling for a lower scoring, defense dominated game. Washington will certainly be fortunate to find the end zone more than once, as it is expected to score 11 points and gain just 204 yards of offense.
This week's FREE NFL FoxSheet is loaded with great handicapping information for analyzing the spread, total, money line, halftime line, and teaser line. Highlighted are a pair of outstanding StatFox Matchup Power Trends favoring the host Steelers:
WASHINGTON is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 17.3, OPPONENT 30.5
And
PITTSBURGH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.2, OPPONENT 14.6!
We'll see if Washington can put up a fight this week, as it did for three quarters last Sunday at Philadelphia. Otherwise, it could be a rout for Cowher & Co. Make sure to visit the FREE NFL FoxSheet before finalizing your plays on this inter-conference dual. The game kicks off on Sunday at 1 Pm et.
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