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NEW ORLEANS BOWL:
NORTH TEXAS (+5, O/U: 53.5) vs. SOUTHERN MISS:
North Texas has represented the Sun Belt in each of the three previous New Orleans Bowl games. The Mean Green are 1-2, both SU & ATS. The UNDER has also cashed in two of three games.
GMAC BOWL:
BOWLING GREEN (-4.5, O/U: 72) vs. MEMPHIS:
Conference USA representatives have lost four of the last five games SU & ATS in this bowl series formerly known as the Mobile Alabama Bowl. The OVER has come in three of five times.
TANGERINE BOWL:
GEORGIA TECH (-5, O/U: 43.5) vs. SYRACUSE: All three installments of the reincarnated Tangerine Bowl have gone OVER the total, and the closest game has been decided by 15 points.
LAS VEGAS BOWL:
UCLA (-12, O/U: 57.5) vs. WYOMING:
The Mountain West representative, the favorite, and the OVER have each cashed in two of the previous five games. The Pac10 is 2-0 SU & ATS in the last two.
HAWAII BOWL:
HAWAII (-3.5, O/U: 76) vs. UAB:
The Christmas Day bowl game in Hawaii has been controlled by the underdog, which has covered three of the last four games. The OVER is also 3-1 in that span. This year the game is being played on Christmas Eve.
MOTOR CITY BOWL:
TOLEDO (-3.5, O/U: 66.5) vs. CONNECTICUT:
The MAC has enjoyed success in this game, going 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS since it's inaugural game in 1997. The UNDER has also converted in four of the last five games in this bowl series.
INSIGHT BOWL:
NOTRE DAME (+3.5, O/U: 50) vs. OREGON ST:
After being dominated for most of the early to mid-90's, the underdog in this bowl series has turned the tables, covering in six of the last seven games. The OVER is also 5-2 during that span.
HOUSTON BOWL:
UTEP (+3, O/U: 59.5) vs. COLORADO:
Since losing the inaugural bowl game in Houston in 2000, the representative of from the Big 12 has converted three straight games in convincing fashion, going 2-0-1 ATS.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL:
IOWA ST (+3, O/U: 51) vs. MIAMI OHIO:
The SEC representative has been very successful, going 7-2 SU & ATS in the last nine Independence Bowl games, unfortunately, that conference fell short of qualifying teams this year and will not be represented. The game has also gone UNDER three years in a row.
HOLIDAY BOWL:
CALIFORNIA (-11.5, O/U: 65.5) vs. TEXAS TECH:
The Pac 10 has dominated the Big 12 in this bowl series, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six years. Overall, the Big 12 representative has failed to cover in seven straight games.
CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL:
N CAROLINA (-3.5, O/U: 51.5) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE:
Virginia, the ACC rep, has won and covered against separate Big East conference representatives in each of the first two Continental Tire Bowl games at Ericsson Stadium in Charlotte.
ALAMO BOWL:
OKLAHOMA ST (-2, O/U: 49.5) vs. OHIO ST:
The Big Ten team is 6-2 SU & ATS in the last eight games of the Alamo Bowl since the format changed, matching representatives of the Big 12 and Big Ten. The OVER and UNDER have alternated in seven straight seasons.
MUSIC CITY BOWL:
ALABAMA (-4, O/U: 48.5) vs. MINNESOTA:
Auburn's win over Wisconsin last year snapped a five game SU & ATS losing skid for the SEC in this bowl series. The UNDER has cashed in the last three games.
FORT WORTH BOWL:
CINCINNATI (-2, O/U: 56) vs. MARSHALL:
Boise State took home the inaugural Fort Worth Bowl championship last year, in an exciting high scoring game. Host school TCU covered the spread however.
MPC COMPUTERS BOWL:
VIRGINIA (-5.5, O/U: 51.5) vs. FRESNO ST:
The favorite has covered four straight games in this bowl series, formerly known as the Humanitarian, and the team designated as the home team has covered the last six games.
SUN BOWL:
PURDUE (-7, O/U: 55.5) vs. ARIZONA ST:
The Sun Bowl could legitimately be renamed the underdog bowl, as the dog has compiled a mark of 6-3 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in the last NINE games!
LIBERTY BOWL:
LOUISVILLE (-14, O/U: 83) vs. BOISE ST:
The Liberty Bowl has been one of the lowest scoring bowl games over the past decade. Offenses have been hampered by cold weather, and consequently, this game has gone UNDER in 11 of the last 12!
SILICON VALLEY CLASSIC:
N ILLINOIS (-1, O/U: 47) vs. TROY ST:
The favorite has failed to win or cover in four previous games of this series. Fresno St has been in all four, and has won three straight Silicon Valley Classic games, both SU & ATS.
PEACH BOWL:
MIAMI (-2.5, O/U: 52) vs. FLORIDA:
The favorite is just 2-8-1 ATS since '92 in the Peach Bowl, and the designated "home" team has lost the last five. Also, the representative of the ACC has gone 3-0 SU & ATS in the last three years.
EMERALD BOWL:
NEW MEXICO (-2, O/U: 41.5) vs. NAVY:
The Big East has swept the Mountain West conference in the first two games of this series formerly known as the San Francisco Bowl. The leagues have split the ATS results though.
COTTON BOWL:
TEXAS A&M (-3, O/U: 56) vs. TENNESSEE:
The Cotton Bowl game series has been a low scoring one, going under in seven of the last nine years. Also, the favored team has gone 9-2 SU in the last 11, but just 5-5-1 ATS in that span.
OUTBACK BOWL:
GEORGIA (-7, O/U: 40.5) vs. WISCONSIN:
After winning and covering every game from 1993-98, the favorite in the Outback Bowl has dropped four of the last five, both SU & ATS. The OVER has also cashed in three straight years.
GATOR BOWL:
FLORIDA ST (-8, O/U: 45.5) vs. W VIRGINIA:
Not counting the 2002 game in which Florida State beat Virginia Tech 45-17 in a pick-em' spread, the favorite is on a 7-0 SU & ATS run in the last six Gator Bowl games. The UNDER is also on a 5-0 run.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL:
LSU (-7, O/U: 42) vs. IOWA:
Even two solid defensive teams like Purdue and Georgia a year ago couldn't slow a trend that has seen five of the last six games go OVER the total. The Big Ten representative has lost four in a row ATS.
ROSE BOWL:
TEXAS (-5.5, O/U: 54) vs. MICHIGAN:
The favorite in the Rose Bowl game has won three in a row SU & ATS after losing the previous four ATS. Also, the UNDER has hit in five straight years, and the designated home team is on a run of 9-2 ATS in the last 11.
SUGAR BOWL:
AUBURN (-6.5, O/U: 44.5) vs. VIRGINIA TECH:
LSU's win over Oklahoma snapped a run of seven straight wins by the favorite in the Sugar Bowl. Overall, the favorite has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight, and the designated home team has covered seven of the last nine.
FIESTA BOWL:
UTAH (-16.5, O/U: 67.5) vs. PITTSBURGH:
Including last year's Ohio State victory, an amazing trend has formed in which the team with the better straight up record has won eight Fiesta Bowl games in a row, both SU & ATS. The favorite is 0-3 SU & ATS since 2001.
ORANGE BOWL:
USC (-3, O/U: 54) vs. OKLAHOMA:
The designated home team and the favorite have owned the Orange Bowl series in recent years. Including one pick-em' spread, the "home" team has gone 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS in the last 12 years while the favorite is 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in that same span.
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College Bowl Game Handicapping |
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The Bowl matchups have been set, so let the "December Madness" begin. In all, 28 separate bowl games will be played between now and January 4th, each with varying payouts and levels of importance. To the handicapper though, each game represents an equal opportunity, and thus should be treated as such. For instance, the New Orleans Bowl on December 14th or the Silicon Valley Classic on December 30th may present more value than the higher profile games like the Orange Bowl or the Rose Bowl. Sure the matchups aren't as attractive on paper, but that fact alone could provide the sharp handicapper all the edge he/she needs.
You see, the bowl games prove similar to Monday Night games in a lot of ways, as the bigger games receive a lot more attention at the ticket window, not unlike MNF games which are often a "public" game. However, that is just one way to look at bowl games and obviously there are a lot of factors that go into analyzing these contests, Therefore, as with any other sports wagering, it is important to develop consistent strategies, the recipes for success if you will.
So, for the College Bowl Games, how does one come up with the recipe, the right mix of favorites and dogs, overs or unders, etc? What exactly should be looked at in handicapping the bowl games? It's not an exact science, but in my experience, there are a handful of key factors that can lead to consistent success. They focus on everything from statistics and motivation to personnel. Below is a detailed explanation of each factor, including why it is so important, and a reflection from some of the games that proved so a year ago. Following the explanation of the key bowl game factors, we'll reveal some historical trends surrounding each individual bowl game series. We'll also touch upon some general performance records by favorites and underdogs, by line placement, and finally by conference. All of it should prove to be a great resource for the action this month. Good luck!
Five Key Factors for Handicapping College Bowl Games
1) Yards Per Play Statistic: The yards per play statistic (YPP) is important for handicapping any football game, but it looms even larger in bowl games. In fact, in a recent study done by StatFox, the Yards Per Play Differential proved to be the only statistic that provided any consistent level of success ATS when comparing two teams in a bowl game. Basically, YPP is a measure of team efficiency, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, the higher the YPP the better, and on the defensive side, vice-versa. The differential of these two is what separates the dominant teams from the good teams. From a game by game standpoint, YPP figures can be skewed somewhat by big plays. Over the course of the season however, the numbers tend to level out. Therefore, by the time the teams reach their bowl games, the YPP differential can give an excellent indication of overall strength. Usually the team with the highest YPP differential has the ability to control the line of scrimmage and consequently, a great chance of winning and covering. I often cite the perfect example of this as the 2003 Orange Bowl, where USC beat Iowa 38-17, as a 4-1/2 point favorite. USC, arguably college football's best team at the close of that season, finished ranked first nationally in YPP differential with a +2.54 total. Iowa had a respectable +.96, but it was evident that the Hawkeyes couldn't match up with the powerful Trojans. Sometimes you need to look no further than this simple but effective YPP calculation when handicapping a game. For the record this year's biggest YPP differential matchup is Utah vs Pittsburgh where the Utes hold a +1.8 YPP differential over the Panthers.
2) Momentum of the Teams: Teams riding a winning streak have historically been successful plays in bowl games. They have found what has worked, are playing with confidence, and generally it takes a strong effort by their opponent to stop the streak. This of course evens out if both teams are playing well, which is often the case in bowl games which try to attract the best matchups available, such as in the Liberty Bowl where two red-hot teams will be battling, Louisville and Boise State. This year's biggest hot vs. not mismatch appears to be in the bowl season's first game where North Texas, winner of its last seven games SU & ATS, takes on Southern Miss who sports a 2-5 SU record in that same span. With five teams going into the bowl games unbeaten, and another handful on prolonged SU & ATS winning streaks, there are a lot of momentum factors to consider. Conversely, the effect of a team on losing streak going into a bowl game has proved to be of lesser importance, particularly when facing another struggling team or one that isn't streaking either way. These teams have had several weeks to regroup, and often they are afforded a few more points on the spread than truly deserved. For instance, in this year's Music City Bowl, Minnesota, who characteristically lost five of its last six games, comes in as a 4 pt. underdog to Alabama. The Tide also lost three of their last four games though, so neither team should have too big of a momentum edge.
3) Motivation/Bowl Placement: Often a team's motivation in a bowl game hinges upon its satisfaction with the bid it received. Some teams are elated with where they are playing while others may feel they've been robbed. It can lead to unexpected levels of performance when game time comes around, particularly in higher spread games. Simply, a team's motivation can play a huge role in how it performs in a game. Take a look at some of the interesting motivational factors that present themselves this year, and keep track of how they affect the actual results. As the games progress, you may find some valuable edges based on motivation alone.
- MEMPHIS was one of the more popular pre-season favorites for the Conference USA title in the minds of the preseason prognosticators. Three losses later and the Tigers are left to enjoy a trip to the GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Al. against the MAC's Bowling Green. Louisville faced similar disappointment a couple of years back and was pounded by a far more motivated Marshall team in this same bowl.
- WYOMING, UAB, CONNECTICUT, UTEP, TROY STATE, and NORTHERN ILLINOIS are all playing in their first bowl games either in their history, or in quite awhile. This added "excitement" doesn't automatically translate into success for these types of teams, but it does serve as an additional motivational factor to analyze. Keep in mind, some teams can be overwhelmed by the circumstances surrounding bowl games.
- BOSTON COLLEGE, one home win over Syracuse away from playing in the Fiesta Bowl, instead settles for the Continental Tire Bowl matchup with North Carolina. The Eagles have been one of the better bowl game teams under Tom O'Brien, but never before have they had to endure this level of disappointment.
- CALIFORNIA, the school ousted from the BCS party on the final regular season weekend, will be playing with an extremely large chip on its shoulder when it takes on Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. The Bears rightfully deserved the BCS bid but somehow they fell behind Texas following an unimpressive win at Southern Miss on December 4th.
- GEORGIA, a senior led team that was on the radar of most experts preseason national title contenders, instead suffers two defeats and is left to battling an equally disappointed WISCONSIN team, who was two road wins away from an unbeaten season. These schools meet in the Outback Bowl.
- WEST VIRGINIA, assumed a virtual lock to represent the Big East conference in the BCS this year, loses three games in all and is selected for a second straight Gator Bowl berth.
- PITTSBURGH comes out of nowhere with a late season run to capture the Big East's automatic BCS berth and the big money prize attached to it. The Panthers, scored by most media, will be anxious to prove they belong when they meet UTAH, another surprising BCS party crasher, in the Fiesta Bowl. UTAH has its own situation to deal with though, as Coach Urban Meyer has already announced his intentions to leave for Florida next year.
- TEXAS, left to sit and watch the season's final Saturday from home, is pleasantly surprised to learn on the following Sunday that it had earned a BCS Bowl berth. The Longhorns steal the Pac 10's normal position and will represent the Big 12 in the coveted Rose Bowl against Michigan, a team quite familiar with the happenings in Pasadena.
- AUBURN, unbeaten out of the SEC, plays third wheel in the championship game party and is left to the Sugar Bowl. All things considered, the Tigers were as good or better than any other team in the country this year, but fell shy in the BCS standings as they were unable to overcome lower preseason rankings.
4) Senior Star Players: Look back at list of some of college football's biggest stars in recent years as their swan songs were most often impressive efforts that put their teams over the top. Carson Palmer, Ron Dayne, Ricky Williams and most recently, Eli Manning, are all players who, as Seniors, nearly single handedly propelled their schools on to victory in their final games. These are players who stand above and beyond the normal threshold for stars in college football, players who played all four years, or won Heisman Trophies, or who lifted their teams to unaccustomed levels. Some of this year's candidates include: #1) QB Jason White of Oklahoma, a former Heisman Trophy winner and record setting passer #2) Timmy Chang, Hawaii's five year starter and the NCAA's all-time leader in passing yards. #3) QB Campbell/RB's Brown and Williams of Auburn, all three of whom will be playing their final games at Auburn after lifting the program to new heights this season #4) QB Greene/DE Pollack of Georgia, similar #3, these four year starters have cemented their names in the history of Georgia football with record setting careers #5) QB Dan Orlovsky of Connecticut, a lesser known commodity, but a former prep all-american who has brought Connecticut's football program to the national stage over the course of his prolific career.
5) Key Game Matchup Statistics: Past successes have taught me that the stats and trends can't be ignored. Of the three previous factors, only the YPP is measurable. The successful handicapper should have a complete arsenal of statistics that provide strength indications for every team. Although it's not advocated, some professionals use statistics as the entire basis for their selections. They are better used a supplement to a sports bettor's knowledge and handicapping strategies. Some of the more advanced type of statistics used include Super Situations, Game Estimators, Situational and Matchup Power Trends, Line Movement Analysis, Common Opponent Records, and Series Histories, all of which are included as part of the in-depth analysis found on the FoxSheets.
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Favorite/Underdog/Miscellaneous Results |
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- A total of 257 lined bowl games have been played since 1992.
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- Nine teams have played bowl games on their home turf. Those hosts are 7-2 SU & ATS.
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- Underdogs own a slight ATS edge in bowl games, 128-118, 52% with six games that have PUSHED, and five that have been pick-em's.
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- Favorites own an edge in straight up wins, 154-98, 61.1%.
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- Underdogs who won ATS are also 98-30 SU, giving some merit to Money Line wagering.
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- In the 2003-04 bowl season, favorites turned the tables with a 20-8 SU & 15-12-1 (55.6%) ATS record. |
Line Range Results
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- Double-digit favorites are 35-6 SU but just 17-22-2 ATS, 43.6%.
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- Favorites of less than 4 points are just 46-50-1 ATS, 47.9%.
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- Only twice has a favorite of less than four won SU & lost ATS. More evidence advocating underdogs on the money line, not ATS!
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- Favorite of 4 points or less in the 2003-04 bowl season were 10-3 SU & 9-3-1 ATS.
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- The best line range to bet with favorites on has been 6.5-9.5. They are 36-30-1 ATS (54.5%) in that scenario.
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Total Results
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- UNDER plays have cashed at a 54.1% clip, with a record of 138-117-2
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- The average total placed in bowl games is 50.9, significantly higher than in the regular season.
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- Games with totals set extremely low (37 or less) are have gone UNDER 70% of the time, 7-3.
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- Games with extremely high totals (63 or higher) have gone OVER 62% of the time, 13-8.
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2004 Bowl Team Perfomance Trends
Which are the HOT teams coming into this year's bowl games?
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- NORTH TEXAS won its L7 games both SU & ATS
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- BOWLING GREEN closed the season on a 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS run
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- HAWAII won its L3 games SU & ATS to qualify for a bowl, including twice as an underdog
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- FRESNO STATE was 5-0 SU & ATS to end the season, outscoring its opponents by 40.0 PPG
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- TOLEDO was 3-0 SU & ATS to end the season, winning all three games as an underdog
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- OREGON STATE comes into its bowl game vs NOTRE DAME on a 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS run.
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- OHIO STATE rallied with a 4-1 SU & ATS finish to qualify for a bowl game
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- NORTH CAROLINA covered six of its L7 games
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- NEW MEXICO won its L5 games straight up, covering four of them
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- BOISE STATE has the nation's longest winning streak, 22 games
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- LOUISVILLE was an incredible 10-1 SU & ATS this season
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- IOWA was 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its L7 games of the 2004 season
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- UTAH is on a remarkable run of 21-2 SU & 19-4 ATS in two years under lame-duck coach Urban Meyer
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- VIRGINIA TECH was 8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its L8 games
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| Which teams are playing POORLY heading into their bowl games? |
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- SOUTHERN MISS was 2-5 SU in its L7 season games
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- MINNESOTA was 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS to end the season, a nearly identical finish to the past few seasons
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- UAB closed the season by going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS
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- ALABAMA lost three of its L4 games straight up
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- ARIZONA STATE covered just once in its L6 games
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- FLORIDA STATE was 1-6-1 ATS in its L8 games
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- WEST VIRGINIA lost its L2 games SU & its L4 games ATS
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- OKLAHOMA was just 4-8 ATS this year overall and 1-4 ATS in its L5 games
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PAST BOWL PERFORMANCE TRENDS
The STRONG bowl trends:
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- ALABAMA has lost its L3 Bowl Games ATS
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- GEORGIA is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in its last seven bowl games.
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- LSU has gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its L7 bowl game appearances
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- FLORIDA STATE has gone UNDER the total in 10 of its L12 bowl games
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- NORTH CAROLINA is on a nice stretch of 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in bowl games
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- MICHIGAN has gone OVER the total in five of its L6 bowl games
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- MIAMI has won six of its L7 bowl games, both SU & ATS
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- BOSTON COLLEGE comes into its bowl game on a 6-1 SU & ATS bowl run.
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- BOISE STATE is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its four previous bowl games.
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- MARSHALL is on a five game SU & ATS bowl winning streak
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- OKLAHOMA has gone UNDER the total in all seven of its bowl games since '93
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- VIRGINIA has gone OVER the total in six of its L7 bowl games
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| The WEAK bowl trends: |
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- CINCINNATI is 0-3 SU & ATS in its L3 bowl game appearances
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- COLORADO has lost its L2 bowl games SU & ATS after winning the previous six
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- FLORIDA is on a 1-4 SU & ATS stretch in bowl games
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- LOUISVILLE has lost five of its L6 bowl games, both SU & ATS
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- WEST VIRGINIA is 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in its previous eight bowl games since '92
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- NOTRE DAME hasn't won a bowl game since January '94 and is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in that span.
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| There are a few rematches of recent bowl games. They are: |
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- CINCINNATI and MARSHALL met in the 2000 Motor City Bowl. The Herd won 25-14 as a 3 point dog
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- OREGON STATE routed NOTRE DAME in the 2000 Fiesta Bowl, 41-9. OSU was a 3-1/2 point favorite
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- MIAMI and FLORIDA last met in a bowl game in 2000, the Sugar Bowl. Miami won handily, 37-20, as a 6-1/2 point favorite
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- WISCONSIN and GEORGIA also played in the '97 Outback Bowl. Georgia won easily 33-6, as a 9-1/2 point favorite |
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