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Overall Tournament Trends (since 1998)
It's no secret that seeding is critical and that the regular season means everything when it comes to earning a higher seed in the tournament. The results show that 306 of the 443 games in the NCAA's since '98 have been won by the higher seed, 69%. Granted, this stat means more to the office pool participant than it does to the ATS enthusiast, who is more interested in the fact that the higher seed has compiled just a 205-228-8 ATS record in that span, or just 47.3%. Certainly makes the case for more money line wagering, doesn't it? It also serves note that the hype surrounding the "Cinderella" teams that advance through the tournament only tells half of the story. You'll see later that the seeds with the highest ATS marks in the last seven years are actually all 8th or below! Furthermore, the last two years' history reveals that there has been 32 straight up upsets of a higher seeded favorite, coming on average of once every 3.5 games.
Recent NCAA tournament ATS trends:
 Favorites are just 198-
234-8 ATS (45.8%) since
'98 in the NCAA's.
Double digit favorites
are 65-67-2 ATS, but
have gone 16-14 ATS
in the last two years.
Favorites of 3 points
or less are just 49-57
SU &42-64-1 ATS
(39.6%) in that span!
Totals
What about totals? The oddsmakers seem to have an excellent handle on total placement, as of the 375 NCAA tourney games that had totals, 187 went OVER and 188 went UNDER. Furthermore, there have been hardly any discernible general trends that can be pointed to on a consistent basis as successful. From an overall standpoint, most everything regarding totals seems to be as probable as the flip of the coin. Thankfully, you'll see from some of the round by round analysis, that there are some total patterns that have formed. |
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Seed Records
The following are the ATS records by seed. Keep in mind that a handful of times, a #1 seed played another #1 seed, or a #2 played a #2, etc. For those who've saved the '03 article, you'll see that the differences in the top and bottom seed performance marks have tightened up significantly as no single seed is above 60% ATS nor below 40% any longer. Notice the #8, #10, & #12 seeds share the best percentage ATS marks at 58%. |
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Seed |
ATS Record |
|
#1 |
55-54-3 (50%) |
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#2 |
38-50-1 (43%) |
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#3 |
46-39 (54%) |
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#4 |
27-35-1 (44%) |
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#5 |
29-31-2 (48%) |
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#6 |
33-29-2 (53%) |
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#7 |
20-27 (43%) |
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#8 |
31-22 (58%) |
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#9 |
20-23 (47%) |
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#10 |
31-22-1 (58%) |
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#11 |
18-20-2 (47%) |
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#12 |
25-18 (58%) |
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#13 |
18-16-2 (53%) |
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#14 |
12-18 (40%) |
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#15 |
16-13 (55%) |
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#16 |
13-17 (43%) |
Conference Records
The following are the ATS records of the major conferences in the NCAA tournament since '98. For the record, the small conferences with the most interesting records to note are the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, which is 7-1 ATS, and the Ivy League, which is 0-7 SU & ATS. |
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Conf. |
ATS Record |
|
ACC |
43-47-2 (48%) |
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Atlantic 10 |
20-20-1 (50%) |
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Big 12 |
51-40 (56%) |
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Big East |
50-40-3 (56%) |
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Big Ten |
59-42-2 (58%) |
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Conf-USA |
18-28 (39%) |
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Pac 10 |
34-41-1 (45%) |
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SEC |
38-51-2 (43%) |
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Because of the great response StatFox received to this article a couple of years back and the increased requests for an updated version, we have decided to republish the NCAA Tournament Trends article with updated results from the past two years' action. Quite simply, the madness of March brings everyone's college basketball wagering interest to its peak. Apparently there is no such thing as information overload at this time of year, as StatFox visitors are consumed by the thirst for as much stats, trends, and situations as possible for the Big Dance. Among the things we plan to deliver in this tournament trend article are; favorite/underdog results, how the various seeding affects ATS performance, how each conference fares, and even how line & total placement can be important. Of course, these results are generalities from the past seven years of NCAA tournament action, and in reality, matchups and execution are always the most critical factors. With that said, StatFox has always concurred with the theory that when it comes to sports handicapping information, the more you know, the better you are!
Click Here to read the full article
So enjoy the analysis, and maybe it can help you uncover some winning handicapping strategies for this year's big dance! In the meantime, if you're interested in supplementing this information with the most comprehensive game by game analysis available for all 63 tournament games, browse to the end to see how you can get your hands on the FoxSheets - the ultimate Sports Tipsheet!
First Round
In looking at the last seven years of first round action, the favorite/underdog results are close to the 50/50 mark at 48.8%. The lower seeds have put up some impressive numbers over the last two years, covering 36 of the 64 games, or 56%. Interestingly, during that time, all four higher seeds that played as underdogs won and covered the number in their games. In general though, the most significant trends that have formed in the first round seem to center around the seeded matchups. For instance, the #5 vs #12 matchup has long been regarded as the potential upset, but in truth, the #10 seeds have been the best underdog, holding an edge over the #7's in their head to head games, winning 15 of 28, both SU & ATS. Also, the UNDER holds sizable edges in five of the 8 seed matchups. Take a look at the stats for all of the matchups: |
| Seed Matchup Results |
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#1 vs. #16: The #1 seed is 28-0 SU & 16-12 ATS. 14 of 24 totaled games went UNDER. |
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#2 vs. #15: #2 seeds are 27-1 SU but just 12-16 ATS. 16 of 24 totaled games went UNDER. |
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#3 vs. #14: This matchup has been owned by the #3 seed, 26-2 SU & 16-12 ATS. OVER/UNDER is 9/15. |
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#4 vs. #13: The #4 seed is 22-6 SU & 14-13-1 ATS vs the #13. The OVER/UNDER ratio is 14/10. |
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#5 vs. #12: 5th seeds are 17-11 SU & but 11-16 ATS vs the #12's. The OVER is 15-9 in the series. |
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#6 vs. #11: #6 seeds have done fairly well, going 20-8 SU & 15-13 ATS. 14 of the 24 games went UNDER. |
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#7 vs. #10: As mentioned earlier, the #10 seed is 15-13 SU & ATS in this matchup. The UNDER is 14-8-2. |
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#8 vs. #9: A close series, with the #8 holding a 15-13 SU edge w/ an ATS split. O/U ratio is 13/11. |
Second Round
A number of significant patterns have formed over the past five years in the second round of the tournament. Most notably are the performances of the underdog and lower seeds, and the results against the total. In fact, judging by the trend regarding the last day of the tournament's opening weekend, we may rename it "Upset Sunday". See if any of these trends can help you in your second round wagering: |
| General Trends |
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The rate of straight up wins by the lower seeds is 5% better in the second round than overall. (37%-32%) |
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Two thirds of the lower seed wins come on Sunday of the second round. In fact, the lower seeds own a straight up record of 27-29, nearly 50%. They are also 32-24 ATS, 57%. |
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The second round, in general, has been a higher scoring round. 52 of 95 (55%) totaled games have gone OVER the total. In fact, the highest scoring tournament game of the last seven years was a second round game, that being UCLA's 105-101 upset of Cincinnati in 2001. |
| Line Placement: |
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Favorites of more than 6 points are just 26-29 ATS since '98, but 10-6 ATS the last two years. |
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Favorites of 4-6 points are 11-11 ATS. However, over the last two years, that mark is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS. |
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Favorites of less than 4 points are an atrocious 11-20 ATS! |
| Seeding Patterns |
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The #1, #2, & #3 seeds have a combined record of 36-44 ATS (45%) in the second round. |
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The #2 seed's performance is particularly troubling when facing the #10 seed: 5-9 SU & 4-10 ATS! |
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The #2 seed does perform well against a #7 seed though, 9-4 SU & ATS. |
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The #10 & #8 seeds own the best ATS records in this round, with the #10 going 11-4 ATS, the #8 11-5 ATS. |
Hopefully all of this helps you towards some success this year. Enjoy the tournament, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!
The FoxSheets have earned their reputation as the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet! Loaded with professional strategies including Super Situations, Game Estimators, Situational & Matchup Trends, Line Movement Analysis, plus much, much more, the FoxSheets are a must for every self-handicapper's arsenal. Go to foxsheets.statfox.com for more details! Or use the convenient links at www.StatFox.com, the web's leading sports handicapping information provider. |
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