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StatFox Dave has been giving the Fox Den Forum members a season long tutorial in Arena Football Handicapping. Stop by the Fox Den today and see how his analysis has helped forum members thrive with the continuing football action of the Arena League! Also, be sure to visit StatFox for tons of other great Arena stats and info, including: |
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Hopefully, all of you regular visitors to StatFox were able to take advantage of some of the valuable trend nuggets found in last week's StatFox E-ticker Newsletter for the First and Second Rounds of the NCAA Tournament. For instance, those of you who looked closely at the conference records probably knew that Pennsylvania's loss to Boston College was the Ivy League's 8th straight in the tournament, both SU & ATS that is! Also, anyone following the seed vs. seed matchup trends was not at all surprised to see NC State take out Connecticut in the second round on Sunday. That "upset" brought the #10 seed's record vs the #2 to 10-5 SU & 11-4 ATS. There were plenty of other favorable trend results, including key line range patterns continuing, total patterns staying the course, etc. However, if you did miss the StatFox College Basketball Trend Article, you can still view it in its entirety by clicking here. Also, don't fret, as there are plenty more significant trends and patterns that have formed in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds as well. If you've thrown out your brackets already and still want to make some serious money this weekend, check out the lines for the big games at our well-respected sponsors:
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Sweet 16 Round
Over the last five years, the Sweet 16 round might be best described as the round where the underdogs give it the ole' college try but come up short as there is a 17 game difference between the SU & ATS records of the higher seeds here. Check out these and some other interesting trends from recent Sweet 16 action: |
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Higher seeds own a 39-17 SU record but are just 22-31-3 ATS in the Sweet 16 round. |
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Similarly, favorites are 41-15 SU. The highest SU winning percentage of any round (73%). |
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Overall, totals in this round are 21 OVER, 25 UNDER. However, in games with totals below 140, the results are 12 OVERS-9 UNDERS. In totals above 140, the result: 9 OVERS, 16 UNDERS. |
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Seeds #8- #13 who have reached the Sweet 16 are 8-17 SU but 13-11-1 ATS. |
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Interestingly, the #8 seed has won straight up in all four appearances in the Sweet 16, the latest being when Alabama beat Syracuse a year ago. |
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The #4 seed has done dreadfully in this round, going just 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS. The only two 4th seeds to advance to the Elite 8 round were Ohio State, who beat Auburn in '99, 72-64, and Kansas, who defeated #9 seed UAB last year, 100-74. |
Elite 8 Round
The Elite 8 round has probably produced the biggest percentage of blowout games in the past seven years as an unusually high 43% of the games, 12 of 28, have been decided by double digits. In fact, over the last four years, only three of the 12 games in this round have been decided by less than six points. In addition, the Elite 8 round has also produced some higher scoring games, with 15 of the 24 totaled games going OVER. Here are a few other interesting points regarding the Elite 8 round: |
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19 of the 28 games in the round have involved #1 seeds. They are just 11-8 SU & 7-10-2 ATS. In fact, over the last two years, #1 seeds have advanced past this round in just two of 6 games. |
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#5 and #8 seeds have combined for a 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS record in Elite 8 action. The only two teams to not advance to the final four from this group were Rhode Island, a # 5 seed in '98 who fell 2 points shy of Stanford, and Alabama in '04, who lost to eventual champion Connecticut by 16. |
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Elite 8 upsets have generally come in games with small spreads, as underdogs of less than seven points have compiled an impressive 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS mark over the last seven years. |
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The only one of the eight favorites of more than 7 points to lose straight up was Arizona in '98, who lost to Utah by 25 points. That game marks the second "easiest" ATS wager over the past five years as the 35-1/2 point differential from the game spread fell just shy of the 38-1/2 point difference in UCLA's 105-70 second round upset over Maryland in 2000. |
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The ACC & Big Ten have made the most of their Elite 8 opportunities. The ACC is 8-1 SU & 5-3-1 ATS, while the Big Ten is 6-3 SU & 5-3-1 ATS since '98. |
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Underdogs have held a large advantage in this round since 2001, going 10-4-2 ATS. |
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NC State vs. Wisconsin
A trip to the Elite 8 round will be on the line when Wisconsin and NC State meet in Syracuse on Friday night. This battle of unexpected Sweet 16 participants is the StatFox FREE College Basketball FoxSheet of the Week! NC State is the early favorite in this game, being installed as 2 point chalk. The Wolfpack got here by disposing of Charlotte and defending national champion Connecticut in an upset on Sunday. They've managed to salvage what formerly was a disappointing 2004-05 campaign by going 8-4 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12. NC State is one of three ACC teams remaining in the tournament. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, one of three Big Ten schools still alive, has managed to "back into" the Sweet 16 according to some experts out there by escaping the clutches of Northern Iowa and Bucknell. In fact, one leading sports network and website has the Badgers listed as the lowest rated team of the 16 remaining. Its certain that Wisconsin Head Coach Bo Ryan will use this to motivate this team that's flown below the radar for most of the year. This is the second trip to the Sweet 16 in three years for the Badgers. NC State hasn't made it this deep into the field since 1989.
There is a StatFox Game Simulator Edge Star in this game as well as plenty of great StatFox Super Situations and Power Trends, including these dandies: |
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NC STATE is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NC STATE 71.3, OPPONENT 66.4 - (Rating = 2*) |
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WISCONSIN is 9-1 against the money line (+7.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The average score was WISCONSIN 66.4, OPPONENT 58.4 - (Rating = 0*) |
Be sure to get a headstart on handicapping this game by visiting our FREE College Basketball FoxSheet of the week before Friday evening. Tip off for this showdown is set for 7:27 PM ET. While at that link, make sure to view the First Half Line, Money Line, and Teaser Line FoxSheets as well.
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