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BASEBALL '05 IS HERE!
The FoxSheets have become widely regarded as the Ultimate Baseball TipSheet for their valuable Super Situations, Team & Pitcher Power Trends, In-Depth Bullpen and Umpire Statistics, and much more. We're offering everyone a chance to sample the highly acclaimed Baseball FoxSheets for Sunday's season opening game between Boston and New York. This battle in the Bronx is the StatFox FREE Baseball FoxSheet of the week! For the Yankees, free agent prize Randy Johnson takes the hill and will be opposed by former Yankee David Wells, the lefthander who comes to Boston from San Diego. The hosts will be anxious to get the season off to a fast start and erase the memories of the ALCS four game collapse against their arch-rivals last October. For the Sox, playing with the mindset of defending champions will be the biggest adjustment. New York opened as a -230 favorite and the line is down to about -200. The first pitch is scheduled for Sunday evening at 8:05 PM ET. Get a jump on the '05 baseball season by visiting the StatFox FREE Baseball FoxSheet of the week and by utilizing all the rest of the handicapping tools in the baseball section of StatFox.com |
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Denver at Portland
While the Final Four games will garner most of the attention on Saturday, there are still some key games going on in the NBA as the pros head down the stretch run towards the playoffs. One of those games will be in Portland, as the Blazers host the Nuggets, who are attempting to hold onto the 7th or 8th spot in the Western Conference. This game is the StatFox FREE NBA FoxSheet of the week. The teams have split two games this season with the host coming away victorious in each. Portland has been relegated to playing the spoiler role for the remainder of the season and is just 16-19 at home. Denver, meanwhile, has surged backed into the playoff race under George Karl but faces a key four game road trip starting with Saturday's game. The Nuggets have been a completely different team away from home this year, going just 14-21 while being outscored by over 3 ppg. They'll need a big effort to get the road swing off to a strong start. Get all of the key handicapping information for this game by visiting the StatFox FREE NBA FoxSheet of the week. Then stop by StatFox.com for these and many other key handicapping tools: |
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College Basketball's Final Four
Last weekend's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 action produced some of the best college basketball seen in years and this weekend's Final Four games can only hope to measure up. The field of four is strong though so there's a good chance it will! Overall, two #1 seeds, a #4, and a #5 made it through the bracket to college basketball's promised land in St Louis. North Carolina is the favorite at 3-2 odds as the Tar Heels survived some spirited underdog efforts in the last two rounds to emerge from the Syracuse Regional. They will take on upstart Michigan State, who is led by a strong group of seniors and seems to be peaking at exactly the right time. UNC is about a 5 point favorite in that game, the latter of the two Saturday contests. In the first semifinal matchup, Illinois takes on Louisville. The Illini, 36-1 on the year, come in at 2-1 odds to take home the championship. They won the Chicago Regional via a miraculous 15 point comeback in the final four minutes of the Elite 8 round game against Arizona. The Cardinals, meanwhile, may have one-upped Illinois by rallying from 20 points back in their Albuquerque Regional final game vs. West Virginia. The Illini have been installed as 3 point chalk.
Both of the FoxSheets for the semifinal games are loaded with great Super Situations, Trends, and other key handicapping information, including a Power Rating Edge Star on one of the teams. Furthermore, one of the two underdogs is actually backed by a 72% Money Line Super Situation! Don't make a play on either game without consulting the FoxSheets first!
GET THE FOXSHEETS FOR THE FINAL FOUR, THE OPENING WEEK OF BASEBALL, THE FOOD CITY 500, THE NBA, AND ARENA FOOTBALL FOR AS LITTLE AS $19.99 |
Final Four Game Trends
With each year having just two final four round games and a single championship game, I figured it would be best to look at the entire final four weekend as a whole. In addition, I've taken the database back a few years, to 1987, the self-described "Modern Era" of College Basketball. Be sure to refer back to some of these patterns that have formed when the big weekend arrives. |
Overall Favorite/Underdog Results
Since 1987, there have been 54 final four games played, and the SU/ATS results have generally held serve with the overall patterns formed in all recent tournament games. While the favorites have won 34 of the 54 games straight up, the underdogs own a 29-25 ATS edge. In the championship game though, the favorites hold a slight edge, having won 10 of 18 ATS and 14 of those 18 straight up. Currently, the favorite in the final is on quite a stretch, with an 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS record in the last 15. Syracuse was the last underdog to win SU & ATS in the final, beating favored Kansas 81-78 as a 5-1/2 point dog. |
Line Placement
It's clear that just simply going with a favorite or underdog in a final four game will not lead you to any kind of consistent success. Looking closer at the amount of points being given or had does reveal some secrets though. Take a look at some of these records based on the line placement: |
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Favorites of 6-1/2 points or more are a mere 9-7 SU & 3-13 ATS!!! |
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Favorites of 4-6 points are 13-5 SU & ATS!!! |
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Favorites of less than 4 points are 12-9 SU & 9-12 ATS. |
| The only three times since '87 that a team favored by more than 6-1/2 points covered that game were in the 2000 semis when Michigan State beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8 pt favorite, in the '97 semis, when Kentucky, laying 6-1/2 points, knocked off Minnesota 78-69, and finally, in the 2002 championship game when Maryland, a 7-1/2 point favorite, beat Indiana 64-52. Furthermore, based solely on the final score margin, none of these games were easy covers. Which leads to the next question, what game provided the cushiest ATS win? That would be the '03 semifinal between Kansas and Marquette as the Jayhawks routed the Golden Eagles 94-61 as a 4-1/2 point favorite, easily covering as 4-1/2 point chalk. That 28-1/2 point margin barely edged UNLV's 26 point cover in its 103-73 Championship Game win over Duke in '90. |
Seed Records
Does a team's seed help determine anything about potential wagers on final four weekend? Unfortunately, only slightly, with the #3 seed. Check out the records of the seeds since '87: |
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Seed # |
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ATS Record (SU Mark) |
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#1's |
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24-21, 53.3% (26-19) |
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#2's |
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10-14, 41.6% (11-13) |
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#3's |
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11-7, 61.1% (9-9) |
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#4's |
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4-5, 44.4% (3-6) |
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#5's |
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2-3, 40.0% (2-3) |
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#6's |
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3-2, 60.0% (3-2) |
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#8's |
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0-2, 0.0% (0-2) |
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| From these results, it's obvious that the #3 seed has been the most reliable performing team when it makes it this deep into the tournament. However, despite the seed leading 61.1% ATS, only two 3rd seeds, Michigan in '89 and Syracuse in '03, have won a championship. Digging a bit deeper into some other trends reveals that any #1 seed that is an underdog has performed at a 8-3 ATS clip. |
Conference Records
Do any particular conferences enjoy more success at the final four than others? You'll see from the following that the Big East and Pac 10 seem to thrive at the final four, while the Big 12 and SEC struggle somewhat. Ironically, it took a last second, 30-foot, back door 3pt shot by Duke against UConn last year to keep the Big East from going 12-1 ATS! Check out the conference records: |
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Conference |
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ATS Record (SU Mark) |
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ACC |
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14-14, 50% (14-14) |
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Atlantic 10 |
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1-0, 100% (0-1) |
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Big 12 |
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5-9, 35.7% (5-9) |
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Big East |
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11-2, 84.6% (9-4) |
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Big Ten |
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8-11, 42.1% (9-10) |
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Conf-USA |
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0-2, 0.0% (0-2) |
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Pac 10 |
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6-3, 66.7% (5-4) |
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SEC |
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6-10, 37.5% (9-7) |
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WAC |
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3-3, 50.0% (3-3) |
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Totals
In general, the OVER/UNDER Totals posted for the final four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reason? My suspicion would be that oddsmakers trap exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more offensive fireworks. In the last two years, a long running pattern of UNDERs performing well has reversed itself, with five of the six games in that time period going OVER the total. Not surprisingly, it was the game with the lowest total in that span (Oklahoma State-Georgia Tech '04 Semifinal) that went UNDER the posted total of 139.5. So in all, there have been 30 UNDERS, 23 OVERS, and 1 PUSH since '87. Thirty-five of the games have had a total higher than 150 points. Of those, 21 were UNDERS. |
Hopefully all of this helps you towards some success. Enjoy the Final Four, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!
The FoxSheets have earned their reputation as the Ultimate Sports Tipsheet! Loaded with professional strategies including Super Situations, Game Estimators, Situational & Matchup Trends, Line Movement Analysis, plus much, much more, the FoxSheets are a must for every self-handicapper's arsenal. Go to foxsheets.statfox.com for more details! Or use the convenient links at www.StatFox.com, the web's leading sports handicapping information provider. |
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