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NASCAR: Pocono 500
Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA. hosts this weekend's Nextel Cup event, the Pocono 500. This race is the first of two season events at Pocono with the second coming as quickly as six weeks from now. It is an unusual scheduling quirk that figures to end in the near future as this facility is in the "danger zone" for losing one of its events. In terms of track layout, this is one of the more unique on the circuit as Pocono's 2.5 mile raceway is a tri-oval with different bankings in each of the three turns, and essentially three separate straightaways. Speeds in the longest straight, the backstretch, reach into the 200's, so the action is normally fast and furious. Current series point leader Jimmie Johnson swept the races at Pocono last year and also holds the lowest average finish here among series regulars at 7.8. Rusty Wallace paces all active drivers with four career Pocono wins.
As usual, Johnson comes in as the favorite, but at 9-2 odds, it is difficult to see any value in going with him on a "To Win" wager. Gordon and Biffle are at 7-1, as it appears the oddsmakers are finally catching up to this year's Roush Racing star. Newman and Kahne are next in line at 10-1. Two of the more likely underdogs for this week could be Elliott Sadler at 15-1 and Earnhardt, Jr., at 20-1. Yes, that's right, gut feeling has me siding with "Little E" as a potential darkhorse for this weekend. Sadler has been on a roll lately, currently sitting third in the standings after leading a bunch of laps in finishing 10th last week at Dover.
Here are some top angles to consider when analyzing this race. Download your FREE single page tipsheet by clicking here The FoxSheets NASCAR simulator has accurately projected the winner in five of the last six NASCAR Nextel Cup races! Click here to see who it picks this weekend!
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Rusty Wallace leads all active drivers with four Pocono wins |
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Greg Biffle's average finish over the past 5 races is 5.4. He has 2 wins and 4 top 10 finishes |
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Jeff Gordon's average finish in June races is 9.8, best on the circuit |
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Gordon's average finish at Pocono is 10.0. In 24 races, he has 3 wins and 17 top 10 finishes |
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Johnson currently leads the point standings by 46 points over Biffle |
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Biffle has won a series high four races in 2005 |
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Mark Martin has finished 2nd in this race in two of the last three years |
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Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Dale Jarrett were each knocked from the Chase standings last week |
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Gordon has recorded an unprecedented three straight DNF's |
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FREE FOXSHEET: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
This Saturday's StatFox FREE Baseball FoxSheet of the week showcases the Interleague battle between Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Get all of the top handicapping information for this game by clicking here. Then utilize the rest of the valuable handicapping tools in the baseball section of StatFox.com |
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2005 NBA Finals
Pistons face daunting task Sunday after Game One second half collapse
After going toe to toe with the Spurs in the first half of the NBA Finals series Game One, Detroit collapsed in the last 24 minutes, getting outscored 49-32. The end results was a 15 point defeat that has the road Pistons in dire need of a victory to even the series on Sunday. It certainly won't be an easy task however, as San Antonio hasn't lost to Detroit at home since 1997, a span of nine games.
It is certainly fitting that the winners of the last two NBA Finals series' are meeting to decide this year's champion. That occurrence is a first in 18 years. The Spurs, who got here by ousting the Suns in five games in the Western Conference Finals, opened as a -240 favorite but quickly moved to -470 after the easy game one win, according to BetCRIS.com. Detroit, a seven games series winner in the East over Miami, is the defending champion though and a win in game two would steal home court advantage with the next three games coming in Auburn Hills. If you recall, the Pistons swept all three home games in last year's finals series against the Lakers.
Here are some key angles to consider when handicapping the NBA Finals, particularly the first two games of the series: |
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The Pistons have a strong revenge seeking team this season:
DETROIT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season.
The average score was DETROIT 90.6, OPPONENT 83.4 |
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The Spurs have taken care of business at home, particularly against the good teams. Look at the average score of this impressive trend:
SAN ANTONIO is 12-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 98.1, OPPONENT 81.8 |
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San Antonio has had a penchant for controlling the tempo as a home favorite:
SAN ANTONIO is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 96.0, OPPONENT 84.0 |
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Regarding the low scoring output in Game One:
DETROIT is 14-5 UNDER (+8.5 Units) after a combined score of 165 points or less this season.
The average score was DETROIT 88.9, OPPONENT 81.6 |
| Visit the StatFox.com NBA Matchup Section or step up to the FoxSheets to get all of the key information needed to thrive in handicapping this year's NBA Finals. |
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StatFox Mid-Season Baseball Handicapping Summary
Keeping with the theme of earlier releases in other sports, StatFox is proud to release its mid-season baseball handicapping summary, covering all of the non-interleague games of a year ago in the months of June, July, and August. The prevailing belief in regards to the timing of this release is that generally, seasonal patterns are constant from year to year with only the teams changing. In other words, good teams of one season will fill the systematic roles of the good teams of previous years, and the same goes for the lesser teams. Also, the basis of systems handicapping underscores that the fundamental concepts of baseball handicapping also remain constant from season to season.
It is important to note about the FoxSheets Baseball Systems list that almost all of these systems, both the profitable and the fade, are based more upon concept than fluke. That by definition is the nature of Systems handicapping. A system is "a set of logical parameters that over time provides consistent winning results". We wholeheartedly agree and stress that the key word there is logical. A system must always have some fundamental basis to it and be backed by sensible parameters. You'll see by studying the list that there are a handful of key "concepts" that dominate the lists: |
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1) More StatFox Super Situational Stars:
Baseball is a very situational game. The FoxSheets Super Situations encapsulate many of the more successful spots in which to obtain line value in any game. Generally, the team with more Super Situations has had an edge against the number. |
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2) More Composite Stars:
The composite stars are the combined star ratings for the StatFox Super Situation Stars, the Matchup Power Trend Stars, and the Situational Power Trend stars. Theoretically, the team that has had an edge in star ratings in these three categories has an edge on the field from a matchup and situational standpoint. |
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3) Better Batting Average:
In terms of line value, hitting rules the game. When given some minimum edge qualifications, the numbers become even more impressive. |
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4) Better Bullpen WHIP:
Bullpens continue to become more and more important in the game, year after year. Teams with strong relief pitching generally provide good line value. |
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5) Starting Pitching is Horribly Overrated:
Most oddsmakers weigh starting pitching in heavily when setting lines. Most novice handicappers also put most of their focus on the starters. The oddsmakers win, the novice handicappers do not. |
| Click here to see the entire article and download the systems list |
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Arena Bowl XIX: Newcomers Colorado and Georgia Take Center Stage in Sin City AFL Title Game
The Colorado Crush and the Georgia Force, captured their respective conference championships as top seeds and will now meet in Arena Bowl XIX in Las Vegas on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. This will mark the first championship appearance for both franchises.
Fun and frenzy awaits Arena Nation in Sin City, with special events like celebrity appearances, concerts, and skill challenges scheduled regularly throughout the championship weekend. However, don't think for a minute that the league hasn't thought about the impact of a title game in the gambling capitol of the world, which could be huge. In fact, the AFL has gone so far as to subtly embrace the gambling angle by posting spreads on their score tickers and having studio hosts and announcers talk about the odds during games.
What lies ahead then for Sunday could be the most wagered Arena Football league game ever. Oddsmakers have set the line for the game at Georgia -3, and the total at a lofty 106. Keep in mind that this will be the first AFL game held at a neutral location and that these teams have only met one time previously, and not since 2003.
John Elway's Crush captured the American Conference championship Sunday in bizarre fashion, as the game that could have been over in regulation was delayed because of a last-second penalty and an explosion of confetti. Eventually Chicago went on to tie the game and force OT because of that penalty, but Colorado won in the extra session on a 22-yard TD pass by quarterback John Dutton to Andy McCullough.
The Force also survived a tight National Conference Championship contest by outlasting Orlando 60-58 to earn their spot in Arena Bowl XIX. Ironically, that game also came down to the last play as a two-point conversion attempt by the Predators failed, setting off a more timely celebration of fireworks and confetti.
Speaking of fireworks, the game on Sunday should see plenty more as both of these teams are prolific offensively, averaging over 52 PPG each. Colorado, 12-6 SU & 11-7 ATS, has also had its problems defensively, allowing a poor 7.1 yards per play. Meanwhile, Georgia (13-5 SU & 10-7-1 ATS) lost all five of its games on the road. As noted earlier, Arena Bowl XIX will be the league's first neutral field title game.
Here are some other top handicapping angles to consider when handicapping Arena Bowl XIX between now and Sunday: |
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The StatFox Power Ratings indicate that Georgia should be a 4-point favorite in this game |
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StatFox Power Trends favoring GEORGIA to cover the spread
GEORGIA is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) in road games versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=3 rushing yards/carry after 8 or more games since 1996. The average score was GEORGIA 53.6, OPPONENT 48.2 |
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StatFox Power Trends favoring COLORADO to cover the spread
COLORADO is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) against National Conference, Southern Division Opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 44.9, OPPONENT 44.6 |
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StatFox Power Trends favoring the OVER against the total
COLORADO is 5-1 OVER (+3.9 Units) in road games when the total is between 100 and 109.5 points this season. The average score was COLORADO 55.7, OPPONENT 63.2 |
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StatFox Power Trends favoring the OVER against the total
COLORADO is 5-1 UNDER (+3.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 46.3, OPPONENT 50.3 |
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