StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Cowboys try to stay in playoff hunt Sunday at Redskins
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/22/2013  at  3:14:00 AM
  Print This Article    

DALLAS COWBOYS (7-7)
at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-11)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -2.5, Total: 53

Long-time rivals try to end losing skids on Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Redskins.

Dallas blew a 26-3 halftime lead at home in last week’s 37-36 loss to the Packers, marking its second straight defeat and making the team 1-5 ATS since November began. Washington fell for the sixth straight time (1-5 ATS) when it committed seven turnovers in a 27-26 loss in Atlanta. QB Kirk Cousins, who replaced Robert Griffin III, committed three of those miscues, but also threw for 381 yards and 3 TD in the loss. The Cowboys are 7-3 SU (3-7 ATS) in the past 10 meetings of this rivalry, winning 31-16 in Week 6 despite being outgained 433 to 213. Both teams have provided plenty of reasons to bet against them, as Dallas is 0-9 ATS versus excellent offenses (375+ YPG) in the second half of the season since 2011, and just 8-18 ATS (31%) as a favorite during this timeframe. But Washington is 2-9 ATS (18%) as an underdog this season, and head coach Mike Shanahan is only 10-26 ATS (28%) versus good rushing teams (4.5+ YPC) in the second half of the season since 1992. Both teams have significant injuries, with the Cowboys defense missing LB Sean Lee (neck) and CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring), and they could possibly without DE DeMarcus Ware (back), LB Bruce Carter (hamstring), LB Justin Durant (hamstring) and DE Jason Hatcher (neck), who are all questionable. The Redskins placed TE Jordan Reed (concussion) on IR earlier in the week and both CB E.J. Biggers (knee) and FB Darrel Young (hamstring) are considered questionable.

Can the Cowboys keep their playoff hopes alive with a rare December victory? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2013 season and playoffs. The experts continue to flourish, combining for a 54.2% ATS record (58-49-7) over the past eight weeks. StatFox Brian has a 64% ATS (23-13-3) mark in Best Bets since Week 7, and is 55.4% ATS (31-25-5) this season. StatFox Scott is 58% ATS (25-18-1) in Best Bets since Week 4, and is also a robust 67% (16-8) in NFL Totals since Week 9, improving his success rate to 55.2% for NFL Totals this season. StatFox Gary has six perfect weeks in Best Bets since Week 4, and is 64% ATS (9-5-2) in the past six weeks of NFL Best Bets.

Dallas is scoring a robust 28.1 PPG (4th in NFL), but ranks 20th in the league in total offense (338 YPG) and 24th on third-down conversions (35%). This team continues to make a slew of big plays, and has turned 71% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns (3rd-best rate in NFL). The Cowboys love to throw the pigskin (242 passing YPG), but they ought to run the football more considering their 4.6 yards per carry ranks sixth in the league. QB Tony Romo has the fewest number of turnovers of his career (10) since being named the team's starter back in 2006, throwing for 3,602 yards (7.1 YPA), 29 TD and 9 INT this season. He is 7-6 as a starter versus the Redskins in his career, throwing for 3,263 yards (6.9 YPA), 22 TD and 14 INT in this series. But in the past three meetings, Romo has tossed as many picks as touchdowns (six each). Romo has relied heavily this season on his top-two targets of WR Dez Bryant (1,061 rec. yards, 11 TD) and TE Jason Witten (703 rec. yards, 8 TD), and both players have enjoyed success in this series as well. Bryant has 320 receiving yards and 2 TD over the past four meetings, while Witten has 586 receiving yards and three scores in his past eight meetings. Despite the two-game losing skid, RB DeMarco Murray has been outstanding with 280 yards on 36 carries (7.8 YPC) over these past two weeks, and will look to exploit a poor Washington defense both on the ground and through the air. Speaking of poor defenses, the Cowboys' defense has been atrocious this season, ranking last in the NFL in total yardage (427 YPG), passing yardage (297 YPG) and first downs (25.0 per game), while ranking among the bottom-three teams in the league in yards per play (6.2), yards per carry (4.9), red-zone efficiency (65%) and third-down defense (44%). And after forcing multiple turnovers in six of its first nine contests, Dallas has tallied only five takeaways in the past five games combined, which is good news for Redskins QB Kirk Cousins.

Cousins finished last week 29-of-45 (64%) for 381 yards (8.5 YPA), 3 TD, 2 INT and one lost fumble, but he was sacked only one time. Cousins will remain the starter for an offense that prefers to run the football, averaging 141 YPG (3rd in NFL) on 4.9 YPC (2nd in league). But Washington scores only 21.8 PPG (23rd in league) because of a mediocre red-zone offense (55% TD rate, 17th in NFL). RB Alfred Morris has 1,125 rushing yards (5th in NFL) on 4.8 YPC with six touchdowns, and he will be asked to carry a huge load on Sunday. He had been given 16+ carries in seven straight games, but has averaged only 13.8 carries per game over the past four contests. Morris rushed for 81 yards on 16 carries (5.1 YPC) and a touchdown in the Week 6 loss to the Cowboys, but was even better against them in his rookie year when he exploded for 313 yards on 57 carries (5.5 YPC) and four touchdowns. When Cousins does drop back to pass, he will mostly look for WR Pierre Garcon, who is the only Redskins receiver with at least 500 yards this season, racking up 96 catches for 1,146 yards and 4 TD. Washington's defense has been shredded this year for a league-worst 31.0 PPG, and its 5.8 yards per play allowed ranks fifth-worst in the NFL. The secondary has been especially weak with 7.8 net yards per pass attempt (2nd-worst in league), while the rushing defense has been decent with 111 YPG (17th in NFL) on 4.0 YPC (13th in league). Although Washington has been able to force a lot of punts with a 35% third-down conversion defense (6th-best in NFL), it has been awful in the red zone with a 67% TD rate (2nd worst in league). Forcing turnovers is also an area that needs improving, as the team has tallied just six takeaways in its past six games combined.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: