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No. 14 Louisville favored big at UCF on Tuesday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 12/31/2013  at  5:01:00 AM
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LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (11-2)

at UCF KNIGHTS (8-3)

CFE Arena - Orlando, FL
Tip-off: Tuesday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Line: Louisville -12.5, Total: 146.5

No. 14 Louisville begins its first and only season in the American Athletic Conference on Tuesday night as a heavy favorite against UCF.

The Cardinals are coming off a 73-66 loss to Kentucky on Saturday, and also suffered a loss of personnel, when it dismissed PF Chane Behanan from the team. The defeat was Louisville’s second of the season, also having fallen to North Carolina, while the team has yet to beat any notable opponents. The Cardinals are 6-5 ATS, but only 1-3 ATS in non-home games. After losing two in a row on the road to Florida Atlantic and Valparaiso, UCF enters this one on a five-game winning streak (all at home), including a 90-62 payback win over Valpo in its most recent game on Dec. 22. The Knights are 2-3 ATS overall and 1-1 ATS at home. Over the past three seasons, Louisville is 29-13 ATS (69%) in road games playing a team with a winning record. But since 1997, UCF is 9-1 ATS at home coming off two straight double-digit wins. These two teams have met once in somewhat recent memory, when Louisville beat UCF 78-58 in 1999.

Can Louisville bounce back from its loss with a lopsided victory? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a 62% ATS (121-74-5) mark, including an eye-popping 69% ATS (86-39) record over the past five weeks. StatFox Zach is leading the way at 67% ATS (26-13-1) on Best Bets this season, including 76% ATS (19-6) in the past five weeks, while StatFox Brian is 62% ATS (24-15-1) for the season and 68% ATS (17-8) in the past five weeks. StatFox Gary is 61% ATS (23-15-2) for the season and 75% ATS (15-5) in the past four weeks, while StatFox Scott is 63% ATS (25-15) for the season and 70% ATS (14-6) in the past four weeks. StatFox Dave is 59% ATS (23-16-1) for the season and 64% ATS (16-9) in the past five weeks.

Behanan was Louisville’s second leading rebounder, so now only more pressure will fall on PF Montrezl Harrell (12.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG), who paces the team on the glass. The 6-foot-8 Harrell came on strong during Louisville’s run to the national championship last season and has improved more this season, hitting 65% FG. G Russ Smith (16.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) leads the team in scoring and passing, assuming more of a ball distribution role this season, even if he may be a natural shooting guard. He’s also a menace defensively, combining with SG Chris Jones (13.8 PPG, 2.7 APG) to force 3.6 SPG in the backcourt. Without Behanan, the production of swingman Wayne Blackshear (9.8 PPG, 3.0 PPG) and Final Four Most Outstanding Player SF Luke Hancock (7.8 PPG) will only become more important. Blackshear is hitting an impressive 44% of his 3-pointers this season, well above his 38% FG clip. Rick Pitino’s squad also takes tremendous care of the basketball, yielding 9.5 turnovers per game, seventh fewest in Division I.

UCF has been solid on the boards this season, averaging 41.1 RPG, slightly more than Louisville’s 40.7 RPG. Six-foot-8 senior PF Tristan Spurlock (13.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) leads that effort, and he has two 20-point performances in the team’s past three games. He is quite difficult to guard with his size and ability to shoot from deep, hitting 2.0 threes per game on a 42.3% clip. G Calvin Newell (14.8 PPG, 3.6 APG) leads the Knights in scoring and distribution, though he must improve on his weak 28.6% three-point shooting. Six-foot-8 senior G Isaiah Sykes (13.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.4 APG) joins him in the backcourt, while 6-foot-7 junior F Kasey Wilson (11.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG) gives Spurlock help down low.


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