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No. 1 Syracuse hosts B.C. Wednesday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 2/19/2014  at  4:48:00 AM
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BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (6-19)

at SYRACUSE ORANGE (25-0)

Carrier Dome - Syracuse, NY
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Syracuse -14, Total: 132

No. 1 Syracuse should have no trouble remaining undefeated at home against Boston College, but the Orange will face a tough test in terms of covering a lofty double-digit spread.

The Eagles have been the biggest disappointment in the ACC this year, going 6-19 SU and 2-10 SU in conference play. They are 7-15-1 ATS overall (32%) and 5-6-1 ATS in league games, tallying a 4-5-1 ATS mark (1-9 SU) on the road. Boston College enters this one having lost five straight SU (2-2-1 ATS), with its only ACC victories this season coming against Virginia Tech twice. The Eagles are 2-1 ATS in games as double-digit underdogs this season, and since 1997, they are 19-3 ATS (86%) in road games after an upset loss as a favorite. The undefeated Orange have built a 14-7 ATS mark (67%) this season, going 6-6 ATS at home and 8-4 ATS in ACC play. They are also 9-1 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season. But Syracuse is just 2-3 ATS in its past five games, failing to cover in both instances in which it was a double-digit favorite. Those games ended up extremely close, with the Orange topping NC State by one point on Saturday, and edging Notre Dame by six points earlier in the month. When these schools met earlier this season on Jan. 13, Syracuse won 69-59 as an 8.5-point road favorite, but the Eagles shot 50% FG that day. The Orange were able to take 19 more shots due to committing just half of Boston College's 16 turnovers and grabbing twice as many offensive rebounds (14 to 7). Syracuse holds an 8-4 SU advantage (7-5 ATS) in this series between former Big East rivals since 1997, with the Eagles' last win at Carrier Dome coming back in 2002.

Can Syracuse cover the monster spread in Wednesday's game? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a 59% ATS (217-150-11) mark, including a hefty 62% ATS (185-116-6) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is at 68% ATS (50-24-2) in Best Bets for the season, 86% ATS (18-3-1) since Jan. 17 and 72% ATS (43-17-1) since Nov. 26. StatFox Dave is 60% ATS (45-30-1) for the season and 65% ATS (28-15) since Dec. 18, while StatFox Zach is 55% ATS (39-32-4) on Best Bets this season, including 57% ATS (33-25-3) since Nov. 22. StatFox Scott is 57% ATS (42-32-2) for the season and 58% ATS (32-23-2) since Dec. 2, while StatFox Gary is 56% ATS (41-32-2) for the season, and 60% ATS (35-23) since Nov. 29.

The Boston College offense averages 69.8 PPG (226th in Div. I) on 45.0% FG (141st in nation) and 35.4% threes. The Eagles generally need to make the most of their opportunities because they average only 29.7 RPG (8th-worst in Div. I), getting outrebounded by 4.0 RPG. Defensively they aren’t particularly stout either, yielding 74.5 PPG (287th in nation) on 46.9% shooting (37th-worst in Div. I) and getting only 4.0 SPG (347th in nation). The bright spot on offense is reigning ACC Freshman of the Year SG Olivier Hanlan (18.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.9 APG), who was limited to 13 points on 2-of-7 shooting (0-for-5 threes) in the first meeting against the Orange, but did have six assists. Fellow SG Lonnie Jackson (7.6 PPG) had his best game in that meeting, scoring 18 points on 6-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc. But he needs to look for his shot more, as Jackson has just 7.0 PPG on 7-of-15 FG in the past three games. The Eagles also have a solid post presence in PF Ryan Anderson (14.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG), who scored 14 points versus Syracuse last month, but made just 6-of-13 FT and turned it over four times to Jim Boeheim’s tough 2-3 zone. PG Joe Rahon (9.8 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.3 APG) also struggled taking care of the ball in that contest with five turnovers, but he still contributed in that game with nine points, five assists and four rebounds. Rahon has been taking much better care of the basketball, with two turnovers or less in all eight games since then, totaling 32 assists and just 10 turnovers.

The Syracuse offense doesn’t inspire much fear, averaging 70.0 PPG (220th in Div. I) on 45.4% shooting (116th in nation) with 12.6 APG (187th in Div. I). But that’s mostly due to its slow pace of play, the same one that holds opposing offenses to 58.2 PPG (7th in nation) on 40.4% shooting and 33.6% threes, racking up 8.3 SPG (17th in Div. I) and just 5.1 BPG (39th in nation). Though they average only 35.0 RPG (172nd in Div. I), they still collect on the majority of their opportunities, outrebounding their foes by 4.2 RPG. PG Tyler Ennis (11.8 PPG, 5.6 APG, 3.2 RPG) is the key for the Orange on both ends of the floor, pacing the team in assists and playing 34.5 MPG while turning it over only 1.6 times per game for a stellar 3.6 Ast/TO ratio. He and SG Trevor Cooney (13.6 PPG, 43% threes) both average 2.1 SPG, putting intense pressure on opposing backcourts. Cooney dropped a game-high 21 points against Boston College in the first meeting, hitting 8-of-13 FG while he and Ennis combined for 33 points, seven rebounds, five assists and nine steals. Senior SF C.J. Fair (16.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is the team’s top scorer, though he struggled a bit that night, going 4-of-13 FG against the Eagles. Fair is joined down low by PFs Jerami Grant (12.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Rakeem Christmas (5.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG), who should dominate the glass in this game. Grant dumped in 16 points and eight rebounds last month against Boston College.


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