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No. 5 Duke seeks payback vs. No. 1 Syracuse
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 2/22/2014  at  5:40:00 AM
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SYRACUSE ORANGE (25-1)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (21-6)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -6

Both coming off disappointing losses, No. 5 Duke and No. 1 Syracuse will meet at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday night in a rematch of a thrilling overtime win for the Orange earlier this month.

Syracuse is coming off its first loss of the season, a 62-59 overtime upset at the hands of lowly 7-19 Boston College. That was the Orange's second consecutive ATS defeat, sending them to 14-8 ATS overall and 8-5 ATS in the ACC. Most impressively, they are 8-1 ATS in non-home games, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in conference road games. Duke enters this game amid a brutal stretch of three games in five days, and it lost the second of those to unranked North Carolina, 74-66 on Thursday night. But the Blue Devils (17-10 ATS overall, 9-5 ATS in ACC) are a perfect 14-0 SU (9-5 ATS) at home this season, where they outscore visitors by 19.3 PPG. When these teams first met on Feb. 1, Duke covered as a 4.5-point underdog at the Carrier Dome in a 91-89 overtime defeat. The Blue Devils made 15 threes to keep them in that game, but foul trouble eventually took its toll as they racked up 10 more fouls than Syracuse (25 to 15) throughout the contest.

Which ACC powerhouse will get back in the win column on Saturday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a 59% ATS (219-151-11) mark, including a hefty 62% ATS (187-117-6) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is at 68% ATS (50-24-2) in Best Bets for the season, 86% ATS (18-3-1) since Jan. 17 and 72% ATS (43-17-1) since Nov. 26. StatFox Dave is 61% ATS (46-30-1) for the season and 66% ATS (29-15) since Dec. 18, while StatFox Zach is 55% ATS (39-32-4) on Best Bets this season, including 57% ATS (33-25-3) since Nov. 22. StatFox Scott is 57% ATS (42-32-2) for the season and 58% ATS (32-23-2) since Dec. 2, while StatFox Gary is 56% ATS (42-33-2) for the season, and 60% ATS (36-24) since Nov. 29.

The Syracuse offense doesn’t wow anybody, averaging a mere 69.6 PPG (231st in Div. I) on 44.8% shooting (146th in nation) with 12.7 APG (180th in Div. I). But that’s mostly due to its slow pace of play, the same one that holds opposing offenses to 58.3 PPG (7th in nation) on 40.5% shooting and 34.3% threes. The Orange are very active in their 2-3 matchup zone, amassing 8.3 SPG (20th in Div. I) and 5.1 BPG (41st in nation) this season. Though they average only 35.1 RPG (166th in Div. I), they still collect on the majority of their opportunities, outrebounding their foes by 4.0 RPG. Freshman PG Tyler Ennis (11.8 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.3 RPG) is the key for the Orange on both ends of the floor, pacing the team in assists and playing 34.8 MPG while turning it over only 1.6 times per game. His amazing 3.6 Ast/TO ratio is on pace to eclipse the all-time record for freshmen. He and SG Trevor Cooney (13.3 PPG) both average 2.0 SPG, putting intense pressure on opposing backcourts. They both scored 14 points in the first meeting against Duke while Ennis added nine assists, finding his post players who went to town on a foul-ridden Blue Devils frontcourt. SF C.J. Fair (16.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is the team’s top scorer and dropped a career-high 28 points on 12-of-20 shooting in the Feb. 1 meeting. PF Jerami Grant (12.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG), who also torched Duke with a career-best 24 points (7-of-11 FG) and a game-high 12 rebounds, creates a huge matchup problem down low. And don’t forget about C Rakeem Christmas (6.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG), who plays big minutes on this team that doesn't go much deeper than a six or seven-man rotation. Christmas not only drew some crucial fouls on Duke star PF Jabari Parker, but he contributed seven points, 10 rebounds (4 offensive) and six blocks in that Feb. 1 victory.

Duke’s offense puts up 80.6 PPG (22nd in Div. I) on 46.8% shooting (60th in nation) with 14.8 APG (51st in Div. I). They rank fifth nationally in long-range shooting, hitting 40.9% of their threes, but made only 5-of-22 threes (23%) in Thursday's loss to North Carolina. Defensively, Mike Krzyzewski’s squad yields 67.0 PPG (92nd in Div. I) on 44.9% shooting and 30.6% threes. Freshman PF Jabari Parker (19.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG) is Duke’s top scorer and rebounder, and he posted 15 points and nine boards (5 offensive) in 26 minutes before fouling out in the first contest. PF Amile Jefferson (6.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG) also fouled out, leaving Duke with a small roster in overtime that Fair and Grant were able to exploit. However, Jefferson was still able to contribute 14 points (6-of-10 FG), seven rebounds and five assists in that overtime defeat. SF Rodney Hood (16.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG) is the team’s second leading scorer, while PG Quinn Cook (12.1 PPG, 4.8 APG) rounds out the team’s double-digit contributors. Cook had one of his worst games of the season against the Orange, going 2-for-12 from the field and 1-of-8 from three-point range. The team’s savior was SG Rasheed Sulaimon (9.2 PPG, 45% threes), who scored 16 points off the bench, including a buzzer-beating three-pointer to send the game to overtime. SG Tyler Thornton (3.2 PPG, 49% threes) was also critical in the game, hitting three treys on three consecutive possessions late in the second half to help keep the Blue Devils in it.


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