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No. 7 Cincinnati looks to sweep No. 11 Louisville Saturday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 2/22/2014  at  4:10:00 AM
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LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (22-4)

at CINCINNATI BEARCATS (24-3)

Fifth Third Arena - Cincinnati, OH
Tip-off: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: Louisville -3.5

The top two teams in the American Athletic Conference will square off for the second time this season as No. 11 Louisville visits No. 7 Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon.

The Cardinals come into this one on a five-game winning streak (3-1-1 ATS), improving them to 13-10-1 ATS overall. They are 7-1 SU (5-2-1 ATS) on the road this season, and rank second in the AAC with an 11-2 SU mark (7-5-1 ATS). The Bearcats sit first in the league at 13-1 SU (6-8 ATS) and are now 11-10 ATS overall this season. They have yet to lose at home where they are 17-0 SU (7-4 ATS). In the first meeting between these two teams this season on Jan. 30, Louisville lost 69-66 at home as it was outrebounded 36-25. While the team forced 20 Cincinnati turnovers that night, the rebounding margin proved too large as the Cardinals struggled to shoot from beyond the arc (6-of-21 threes, 29%) and convert on their opportunities. This has been a very even series over the past 20 meetings, with Louisville holding the slight 11-9 SU edge with the Bearcats having the 10-9-1 ATS advantage.

Which team will prevail in this crucial conference matchup? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a 59% ATS (219-151-11) mark, including a hefty 62% ATS (187-117-6) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is at 68% ATS (50-24-2) in Best Bets for the season, 86% ATS (18-3-1) since Jan. 17 and 72% ATS (43-17-1) since Nov. 26. StatFox Dave is 61% ATS (46-30-1) for the season and 66% ATS (29-15) since Dec. 18, while StatFox Zach is 55% ATS (39-32-4) on Best Bets this season, including 57% ATS (33-25-3) since Nov. 22. StatFox Scott is 57% ATS (42-32-2) for the season and 58% ATS (32-23-2) since Dec. 2, while StatFox Gary is 56% ATS (42-33-2) for the season, and 60% ATS (36-24) since Nov. 29.

Louisville ranks 11th nationally with 83.0 PPG, making 48.0% FG (21st in Div. I) with 15.5 APG (28th in nation). Defensively, the team gives up only 61.6 PPG (18th in Div. I) on 39.8% FG (27th in nation) while forcing 17.2 turnovers per game (4th in Div. I), thanks in large part to 9.6 SPG (3rd in nation). Usually rebounding isn’t such a problem for the Cardinals (38.0 RPG, 46th in Div. I), grabbing 3.6 more rebounds per game than their opponents. The key to that effort on the glass is PF Montrezl Harrell (12.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG), who scored a team-high 18 points (9-of-13 FG) with six rebounds (3 offensive) in the first meeting against Cincinnati. Senior PF Stephan Van Treese (3.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG) added seven boards off the bench in that contest, but they were the only two Louisville players to have more than three rebounds. G Russ Smith (17.8 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.8 SPG) is the team’s top scorer, also pacing the team in passing this season, and often running the point. He’s joined in the backcourt by SG Chris Jones (10.3 PPG, 3.0 APG), who went 3-for-11 from the field against Cincinnati, missing all of his three-point attempts. Swingman Luke Hancock (12.2 PPG) and SF Wayne Blackshear (9.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG) also can play flexible roles in the offense and help threaten opponents from all over the floor. Hancock scored 16 points and dished out a game-high six assists in the Jan. 30 loss to the Bearcats.

Cincinnati’s offense plays at a much slower pace than Louisville’s, averaging 69.7 PPG (226th in Div. I) on 43.3% shooting (239th in Div. I) and 33.4% threes. That pace helps the Bearcats limit opponents to 57.4 PPG (4th in Div. I) on 39.3% shooting and 32.0% threes, but this defense also does a great job disrupting their opponents with 14.9 forced turnovers per game (30th in nation), thanks to 8.3 SPG (18th in Div. I) and 5.8 BPG (19th in nation). The offense is really just a one-man show with senior SG Sean Kilpatrick (20.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG) putting up big numbers on a nightly basis because he attempts more than one-quarter of the team's field-goal attempts. Kilpatrick dominated the first meeting, scoring 28 points and consistently getting to the line where he made all 11 of his free-throw attempts. He’s averaging 24.8 PPG over the team’s past four games, netting at least 22 points in all four contests. The team’s only other double-digit scorer is PF Justin Jackson (11.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG), the team’s top rebounder. Jackson, SF Shaquille Thomas (7.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG) and PF Titus Rubles (7.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG) combined for 30 points and 23 rebounds (9 offensive) as the Bearcats frontcourt outmuscled the Cardinals in the first meeting. If they can give Cincinnati another double-digit rebounding margin in this one, there Bearcats should be able to stay undefeated at home.


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