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Thunder desperate for a win Friday vs. Memphis
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 2/28/2014  at  5:09:00 AM
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MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (32-24)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (43-15)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -6, Total: 193

The Thunder look to snap a three-game losing skid when they host the red-hot Grizzlies on Friday night.

Memphis has won five of its past six games (2-4 ATS) with its most recent contest being a 108-103 home win over the 11.5-point underdog Lakers on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have allowed just 92.3 PPG on 42% FG during this six-game surge, and carry a strong road record of 15-10 SU (14-10-1 ATS) this season. On the other hand, Oklahoma City has really struggled recently, allowing 114.0 PPG over the course of its three-game losing skid (SU and ATS) since coming out of the All-Star break. The really surprising aspect of the losing skid is that all three defeats occurred at home, where the Thunder were a near-perfect 23-3 SU (15-11 ATS) before the All-Star break. These teams have met three times this season with the Thunder holding the 2-1 advantage (SU and ATS) in those contests. Over the past three seasons when these teams have met in Oklahoma City, the Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS, but the teams have split the eight games 4-4 SU. Overall in that three-year timeframe, Memphis is 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS in this series, which includes its five-game playoff series win last season. The Grizzlies are also 49-30 ATS (62%) when facing a winning team over the past two seasons, but the Thunder are 25-12 ATS (68%) after allowing 105+ points in this same timeframe. Recently acquired PF Beno Udrih is likely to be made available for Memphis in this game, while the only injury for either team is Oklahoma City C Kendrick Perkins, who is out indefinitely with a groin injury.

Can the Thunder snap out of their funk with a sizable win over a surging Grizzlies team? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been heating up in NBA Best Bets recently with a 59% ATS record (39-27-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a stellar 60% ATS (38-25-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 55% ATS (48-39-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Zach has a strong 58% ATS mark (35-25-3) on Best Bets since Dec. 1 and is 55% ATS (46-38-3) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian is really catching fire, going 69% ATS (18-8-1) since Jan. 25 and 60% ATS (33-22-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12.

Memphis is one of the league's weaker offensive teams with the third-fewest points in the NBA (95.0 PPG), but it surrenders only 94.6 PPG, good for third-best in the league. SG Courtney Lee (10.0 PPG) has proven to be one of the biggest trade acquisitions in the league this season, as he is averaging 13.4 PPG on 49% FG in his 23 games with the Grizzlies. Lee scored 18 points and added five assists in Wednesday's win over the Lakers, and has been even better against the Thunder this season with 17.5 PPG on 48% FG with 4.5 RPG and 1.5 SPG in the two meetings. PF Zach Randolph (17.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG) has scored only 12.5 PPG on 42% FG in the past two games, and has also shot poorly (38% FG) in the season series with Oklahoma City despite his 17.7 PPG and 11.3 RPG in the three meetings. He must be active on the glass yet again, as he will be going up against a tough opponent in Serge Ibaka. PG Mike Conley (17.7 PPG, 6.2 APG) will need to take advantage of a matchup with Russell Westbrook, who has been a bit rusty since returning from yet another knee surgery. Conley has made just 12-of-37 shots (32%) in his past three games, but has been outstanding in the season series with 19.5 PPG and 8.0 APG in two meetings. C Marc Gasol (13.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG) had 14 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and two blocks in Wednesday's win over the Lakers, but has not played particularly well in two meetings with the Thunder, averaging only 12.5 PPG and 3.5 RPG against them. There isn’t a player on the Thunder roster whom is capable of stopping Gasol, so the Grizzlies are going to need to make a conscious effort to get the big man his touches early and often.

Oklahoma City remains strong in nearly all areas, scoring 104.8 PPG (5th in NBA), allowing just 98.4 PPG (8th in league) and posting a +4.5 RPG margin (2nd in NBA). The Thunder have really struggled since PG Russell Westbrook (20.9 PPG, 6.8 APG, 5.8 RPG) returned to the lineup, losing all three contests since he has returned from a knee injury. During this losing skid, Westbrook is averaging just 5.7 APG while turning the ball over 3.3 times per game. He is also struggling with his shot (34.1% FG), something that was not a problem in his lone meeting with the Grizzlies this season when he tallied 27.0 PPG on 7-of-12 FG with nine assists and six boards. SF Kevin Durant (31.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) is not to fault for the losing skid, as he's averaging 32.7 PPG on 52% FG in the past three games. He has also thrived against Memphis this season with 28.7 PPG on 53% FG with 6.0 RPG and 5.0 APG in three games. PF Serge Ibaka (15.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.5 BPG) will need to be on his game as he will be up against an always-imposing Zach Randolph. Ibaka has held his own in this matchup this season though, averaging 14.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 2.3 BPG in the three meetings. The matchup of these power forwards could come a long way in determining the winner of this game.


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