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No. 14 UNC seeks 12th straight win on Monday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 3/3/2014  at  5:31:00 AM
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NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (15-15)

at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (22-7)

Dean E. Smith Center - Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -11

Winners of 11 games in a row, No. 14 North Carolina tries to stay hot when it hosts a struggling Notre Dame team on Monday night.

The Tar Heels have recovered well from a rocky start to ACC play when they lost four of their first five games SU (0-5 ATS). Since then, they have gone 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS, giving them a 9-7 ATS mark overall in league action. One of the wins in that streak was a 73-62 victory against the Fighting Irish in South Bend as 1.5-point favorites on Feb. 8. North Carolina forced 17 turnovers in that game and kept the Fighting Irish to 6-of-21 shooting from beyond the arc (29%) while winning the battle of the boards 37-32. Since that game, Notre Dame has gone 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS), but the club is 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) in its past four contests to dip to 9-18-1 ATS overall this season (33%). The Irish are 5-12 ATS (29%) in their first season of ACC action and 4-5 ATS (1-8 SU) on the road. They are also 2-11-1 ATS following an SU loss this season, but Mike Brey is 55-38 ATS (59%) as a road underdog (or pick) as the Notre Dame head coach.

Can North Carolina roll to another lopsided victory? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59% ATS (240-169-13) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (208-135-7) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 86% ATS (24-4-2) since Jan. 17, is at 73% ATS (49-18-2) since Nov. 26 and a robust 69% ATS (56-25-3) in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (34-18) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (51-33-1) this season, while StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (7-3-1) since Feb. 16 and 57% ATS (47-35-3) for the season. StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (41-29) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 55% ATS (45-37-2) for the season.

Notre Dame’s offense isn't great, averaging 72.4 PPG (141st in Div. I) on 45.7% FG (105th in nation) with 15.4 APG (33rd in Div. I). Its 34.3 RPG (208th in nation) is far from impressive, but the team still outrebounds its opponents by 1.7 RPG. The Irish defense isn’t spectacular either, yielding 70.5 PPG (188th in nation) on 44.6% shooting and a horrendous 38.3% threes allowed (17th-worst in nation). With their best player, SG Jerian Grant, gone since the beginning of ACC play, PG Eric Atkins (13.7 PPG, 4.8 APG) has to bear more of the load, impressively turning it over only 1.9 times per game (2.5 Ast/TO ratio) despite how much he has to handle the rock. He scored 12 points in the first meeting, but did so on 5-of-15 shooting with five assists and three turnovers. C Garrick Sherman (13.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is Notre Dame's top performer in the post and scored a team-high 17 points (7-of-11 FG) with six boards against North Carolina. He gets significant help on the glass from swingman Pat Connaughton (13.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG), who plays like a guard hitting 2.4 threes per game on a 37% clip, but rebounds like a forward, nabbing a game-high 10 boards against UNC to make up for a 2-of-8 shooting night in that defeat. Connaughton and Atkins play nearly every minute of every game for head coach Mike Brey.

The Tar Heels offense averages a solid 76.7 PPG (50th in Div. I) on 46.1% shooting (79th in nation) thanks to an unselfish 15.8 APG (20th in Div. I), but they struggle from beyond the arc (33.9% threes) and are downright horrid from the foul line (62.6% FT, 7th-worst in nation). But Carolina makes up for it on the glass with 40.8 RPG (8th in Div. I). Defensively, the Heels give up a pedestrian 68.1 PPG (120th in nation), but hold opponents to 40.3% FG and 31.0% threes. They are also active on the defensive end with 7.4 SPG (52nd in nation) and 4.9 BPG (45th in Div. I). PF James Michael McAdoo (14.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG) led the way in the first meeting against Notre Dame with a game-high 18 points and a team-high eight rebounds, while also racking up four of his team's 13 steals. McAdoo is the team’s top performer on the glass, though C Brice Johnson (10.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG), SF J.P. Tokoto (9.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and PF Kennedy Meeks (7.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG) all make significant contributions there as well. PG Marcus Paige (17.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) is the team’s top scorer and passer and dropped 16 points and six assists against Notre Dame in the earlier meeting. He also exploded for 35 points, six rebounds and five assists in Wednesday's win at NC State, but followed that up with just nine points in Saturday's win at Virginia Tech. On a team that lacks good shooters, Paige is making 40% of his threes and 89% of his foul shots. SG Leslie McDonald (11.0 PPG) also produces in the backcourt despite making just 39% FG and 31% threes this season.


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