State Farm Center - Champaign, IL
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -3

No. 12 Michigan could clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title on Tuesday night with a win over an Illinois team that has been clicking on all cylinders as of late.

The Wolverines appeared to be in trouble when sophomore power forward Mitch McGary went out with a back injury in mid-December. However, they responded nicely with a 15-3 SU record (11-6-1 ATS) without their big man, including 13-3 SU (10-6 ATS) in Big Ten play, and are just two wins from an outright conference championship following a three-game win streak. Michigan (14-11-1 ATS overall) has played well on the road (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS), but has struggled to play as good of defense, allowing 71.5 PPG away from home, compared to 59.9 PPG in Ann Arbor. The offense has had its struggles on the road as well, averaging just 60.3 PPG in the team’s three road losses in the Big Ten, nearly 15 points fewer than the 74.9 PPG they average on the season. The Wolverines will have to play their best basketball on Tuesday night, as the Fighting Illini come into the game riding a lot of confidence with three straight wins (SU and ATS). This includes winning outright 53-46 as 12.5-point underdogs at Michigan State on Saturday, when Illinois held its opponent to 39% FG, while creating all kinds of havoc with 14 steals. The Illini are now 12-15-1 ATS overall and 6-10 SU (6-9-1 ATS) in Big Ten play, and have also been a losing wager at home this season at 5-8-1 ATS (10-5 SU). They have just two wins versus ranked teams this season (MSU and Missouri) and have also done a lot of losing in this series recently with five straight SU defeats by a 10.4 PPG margin to Michigan. But although Illinois is 0-7 ATS in the past three seasons at home after scoring 55 points or less, Michigan is 1-8 ATS on the road in this same timeframe when playing its third game in a week.

Which school will extend its win streak to four games on Tuesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59% ATS (240-169-13) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (208-135-7) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 86% ATS (24-4-2) since Jan. 17, is at 73% ATS (49-18-2) since Nov. 26 and a robust 69% ATS (56-25-3) in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (34-18) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (51-33-1) this season, while StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (7-3-1) since Feb. 16 and 57% ATS (47-35-3) for the season. StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (41-29) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 55% ATS (45-37-2) for the season.

On the season, the Wolverines score 74.9 PPG (78th in nation) on an excellent 47.7% FG (28th in Div. I) and 38.9% threes (also 28th in nation). They also rank 52nd in the nation in scoring defense (65.1 PPG), limiting opponents to 43.9% FG and 33.2% threes. Michigan is not a very aggressive defensive team though, averaging a paltry 5.1 SPG (285th in Div. I) and 2.5 BPG (293rd in nation). Last season, SG Nik Stauskas (17.1 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.4 RPG) was known as a great shooter that benefitted from playing with a great point guard in Trey Burke. With Burke no longer running the show for the Wolverines, it has forced Stauskas to have to grow as an offensive player. While he is still one of the best shooters in all of the country (44% threes), his ability to get to the basket has made him one of the most versatile offensive players in all of the country. Stauskas poured in 14 points on 6-of-10 shooting in last season's 74-60 win in Champaign, but was 0-for-5 in the rematch in Ann Arbor one month later. Stauskas teams up with SG Caris LeVert (13.4 PPG, 40% threes, 4.5 RPG) to produce one of the most electric scoring backcourts in the Big Ten. LeVert has 18.8 PPG (11-of-21 threes) over his past four games. Both do a great job of letting the offense come to them, and their play has been a big reason why freshman PG Derrick Walton Jr. (8.3 PPG, 39% threes, 2.8 APG) has had a solid rookie campaign. However, Walton has been slumping over the past four games with just 5.3 PPG on 6-of-22 FG (27%), five assists and four turnovers. While the two wing players combined with PF Glenn Robinson III (13.0 PPG, 50% FG, 4.4 RPG) are the leaders of the team, the argument can be made that the Wolverines will go only as far as Walton Jr. takes them. In the Wolverines six losses this season, the freshman has averaged only 4.3 PPG. The Achilles heel for this team is its inability to rebound the ball, ranking 289th in the nation in rebounding (32.7 RPG). Luckily for the Wolverines, the Fighting Illini have also done a poor job cleaning the glass.

Heading into Tuesday night’s matchup, Illinois ranks 196th in the nation in rebounding (34.4 RPG), which pales in comparison to its offensive numbers. It has been a brutal year offensively for the Fighting Illini, who rank 305th in Div. I scoring (65.1 PPG), 323rd in shooting (40.7% FG) and 334th in assists (10.2 APG). As a team, Illinois shoots only 32.3% from the three-point line, so it can't afford to get down by double-digit points with little chance of coming back. But like Michigan, the Illini defense has been strong, ranking 21st in the country by allowing just 62.0 PPG, and holding opponents to 41.4% FG and 32.8% threes. While the team plays great defense, it does not force a lot of turnovers (12.0 TOPG) due to a pedestrian 6.2 SPG (166th in nation). Getting easy baskets off turnovers could really help overcome the offensive struggles. Junior SG Rayvonte Rice (15.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG) has been a bright spot for Illinois this season, but has scored just 8.7 PPG on 28% FG during the three-game win streak, showing that other players have stepped up their offensive performances. SG Tracy Abrams (10.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) had a huge effort in Saturday's upset win at Michigan State with a team-high 12 points, four assists and five steals. Abrams has the talent to be a big scorer, but has had too many games where he has his struggles. He scored 10 points in both losses to Michigan last season. The Illini's best frontcourt scorer is senior SF Jon Ekey (7.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) who has made 8-of-15 FG with eight steals during his club's winning streak. For Illinois to win this game, it is going to have to play the defense that it played in East Lansing.