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No. 25 Kentucky looks to end losing skid on Tuesday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 3/4/2014  at  5:19:00 AM
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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (12-17)

at KENTUCKY WILDCATS (21-8)

Rupp Arena - Lexington, KY
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -12.5

After losing two games last week to middling teams, No. 25 Kentucky aims to get back on track Tuesday against Alabama.

The Wildcats were 10-point favorites against both Arkansas and South Carolina last week but lost the two games by four and five points, respectively. The defeat against the Razorbacks was just their second home loss this season (15-2 SU), where they are 8-7 ATS. Kentucky is 12-15 ATS overall this season and 7-9 ATS in SEC play, and since 1997, head coach John Calipari is 22-9 ATS (71%) in March home games. The Crimson Tide (10-13-2 ATS overall) has struggled in conference play, going 6-10 SU (7-7-2 ATS) with a paltry 64.9 PPG. Although they have won two of their past three games (SU and ATS), both of those victories came at home. Alabama's big issue has been on the road, where it is 0-10 SU (4-6 ATS) and losing by 10.2 PPG. However, head coach Anthony Grant is 18-6 ATS (75%) versus teams outrebounding their opponents by 4+ RPG after 15+ games in a season. Alabama upset Kentucky in Tuscaloosa last season, winning 59-55 as four-point underdogs. Including a 77-71 loss in Lexington in 2012 as 10-point underdogs, the Crimson Tide have now won two straight ATS and are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings of this conference rivalry. But since 2003, the Wildcats hold a commanding 11-4 SU advantage (8-7 ATS) with their lone home loss to Alabama over this stretch coming in 2006.

Can Kentucky snap its losing skid with a double-digit victory on Tuesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59% ATS (240-169-13) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (208-135-7) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 86% ATS (24-4-2) since Jan. 17, is at 73% ATS (49-18-2) since Nov. 26 and a robust 69% ATS (56-25-3) in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (34-18) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (51-33-1) this season, while StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (7-3-1) since Feb. 16 and 57% ATS (47-35-3) for the season. StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (41-29) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 55% ATS (45-37-2) for the season.

Alabama’s offense struggles to put up big numbers, averaging 68.4 PPG (252nd in Div. I) on 44.5% shooting (163rd in nation) with 11.2 APG (280th in Div. I). The Tide get outrebounded by 2.1 RPG and defensively give up 67.9 PPG (115th in nation) on 42.2% shooting. One thing they do well is contain opposing shooters, limiting them to 30.4% from three-point range, and they are opportunistic with 6.9 SPG (96th in Div. I) and 4.6 BPG (72nd in nation). Senior PG Trevor Releford (18.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) is the team’s only double-digit scorer, hitting 50% FG and 40% threes. The senior also adds 2.3 SPG to help counteract his 2.7 turnovers per game. In last season's win over Kentucky, he dropped in 13 points (4-of-10 FG) with a pair of steals, and this season he has scored in double-figures in every game, including 16+ points in each of seven straight contests (2.1 PPG). Junior PF Nick Jacobs (8.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG) paced the Crimson Tide in that contest with 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting, but he remains out indefinitely after taking a voluntary leave of absence. Belgian sophomore SG Retin Obasohan (9.7 PPG, 1.9 SPG) and junior SG Levi Randolph (9.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG) join Releford in the backcourt, combining for 37 points in Saturday's 73-57 blowout of rival Auburn. Randolph has been on fire in his past three games with 23.3 PPG on 60% FG (9-of-16 threes). On this team that regularly gets beaten on the boards, 6-foot-6 swingman Rodney Cooper (7.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG) leads the way on the glass while freshman PF Jimmie Taylor (2.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG) can be a useful defender on the block in his limited minutes (16.2 MPG).

Kentucky’s offense makes up for its lack of passing (11.6 APG, 264th in Div. I) with other skills, putting home 77.4 PPG (38th in nation) on 45.5% shooting (111th in Div. I). The Wildcats' 41.8 RPG ranks fourth in the nation, as they pull down 13.7 offensive RPG (3rd in Div. I) to give them plenty of extra opportunities. Defensively, they give up 67.2 PPG (95th in nation) on a stingy 39.7% FG (24th in Div. I) and 30.6% threes. Freshman PF Julius Randle (15.5 PPG, 10.4 RPG) leads the way averaging a nightly double-double, including five double-doubles in his past six games (13.7 PPG, 13.0 RPG). He gets some needed defensive help down low from sophomore C Willie Cauley-Stein (7.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG), who averages 2.9 BPG (22nd in nation). Beyond Randle, the rest of the team’s double-digit scorers are all fellow freshmen. Swingman James Young (14.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG) has struggled in the team’s two losses, making only 8-of-24 FG with nine turnovers. The team's top passer, PG Andrew Harrison (11.1 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.0 RPG), has also struggled lately, going 11-of-37 FG (30%) in his past four games. His twin brother, SG Aaron Harrison (13.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG), scored 21 points in Saturday's loss to South Carolina, countering his 4-of-16 shooting performance by going 11-for-12 at the line, grabbing six rebounds and not turning it over once in 37 minutes.


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