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Heat seek 9th straight win Tuesday in Houston
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/4/2014  at  7:34:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (43-14)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (40-19)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -1, Total: 210

The scorching-hot Heat try to extend their long winning streak on Tuesday night when they visit a Rockets team that has also been playing great basketball, but may not have the services of star C Dwight Howard.

Miami won its eighth straight game (6-0-2 ATS) on Monday with a 124-107 pounding of Charlotte thanks to a career-high 61 points from SF LeBron James. The Heat have made at least 54% FG in six of their past seven games, averaging a hefty 109.7 PPG on 54.3% FG (41.1% threes) during this offensive surge. Houston is also thriving offensively during its current 11-2 SU run (8-5 ATS) since Jan. 28, averaging 111.6 PPG on 49.3% FG (39.0% threes). But the Rockets could be missing C Dwight Howard, who will be a game-time decision due to a back injury. Miami is 19-10 SU (16-12-1 ATS) on the road this season, while Houston 23-7 SU at home, but just 14-13-3 ATS at Toyota Center. These clubs last met on Feb. 6, 2013 when the host Heat won 114-108 but failed to cover the 7.5-point spread. That was the seventh straight SU win (4-3 ATS) for Miami in this series, which includes a perfect 3-0 mark (2-1 SU) in Houston. The Heat are also 12-4 ATS (75%) after two straight double-digit home wins, but the Rockets are 13-3 ATS (81%) as a home underdog over the past three seasons and 11-3 ATS (79%) this season when allowing 110+ points in their previous game. SG Dwyane Wade (rest) is likely to play for Miami in this game while Houston PG Jeremy Lin (back) is questionable to suit up for the Rockets.

Can Houston put an end to Miami's long winning streak? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been heating up in NBA Best Bets recently with a 60% ATS record (45-30-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a stellar 60% ATS (39-26-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 55% ATS (49-40-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 70% ATS (19-8-1) since Jan. 25 and 61% ATS (34-22-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Zach has a strong 57% ATS mark (35-27-3) on Best Bets since Dec. 1 and is 53% ATS (46-41-3) on Best Bets for the season.

Miami ranks seventh in the NBA in both scoring offense (104.7 PPG) and scoring defense (98.3 PPG), as it leads the league in shooting (51.2% FG) and ranks ninth in passing (23.2 APG). The big weakness continues to be rebounding, where the Heat's 36.8 RPG ranks last in the NBA. SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.4 APG) was unbelievable in Monday's win, scoring his career-high 61 points on 22-of-33 FG and 8-of-10 threes, while adding seven rebounds and five assists in his 41 minutes. Since arriving in Miami, James has faced the Rockets five times, winning all five games due in large part to his 31.0 PPG (56% FG, 41% threes), 8.0 RPG and 6.4 APG. PF Chris Bosh (16.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) had 15 points and seven rebounds in just 30 minutes against the Bobcats on Monday. He will need to be on his game defensively, especially if Dwight Howard is able to play. On the offensive end, Bosh's shooting ability (56% FG, 48% threes during eight-game win streak) should be able to pull his man away from the basket to open up the lane for James and SG Dwyane Wade (19.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.8 APG). Wade sat out against the Bobcats to rest, but he should be a go against the Rockets. Over the past four games, Wade has scored at least 23 points each time, averaging 23.5 PPG on a blistering 62% FG with 5.5 RPG and 5.5 APG. He has always enjoyed facing Houston in his career (27.3 PPG, 6.4 APG, 5.4 RPG in 17 games), and Wade should have extra incentive to perform at a high level in this game, as he is going up against James Harden, one of the top shooting guards in the league.

Houston's offense has been stellar all season, pouring in 106.4 PPG (3rd in NBA) on 47.5% FG (also 3rd in league) and 35.4% threes. Rebounding has also been a major strength (45.3 RPG, 6th in NBA), but the Rockets' passing (20.8 APG, 21st in league) and defense has been subpar. Houston allows 101.9 PPG (19th in NBA), despite limiting teams to 43.7% FG (5th in league) and 34.7% threes (7th in NBA). The Rockets are coming off a 118-110 victory over the Pistons on Saturday in which PF Terrence Jones (11.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG) had 22 points (10-of-15 FG) and 10 rebounds. Jones is the type of versatile power forward that could help the Rockets stick with the Heat in their small-ball lineup that causes so many other teams nightmares. C Dwight Howard (18.9 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) has played extremely well during his team's 11-2 surge, averaging 22.2 PPG (62% FG), 12.2 RPG and 2.1 BPG. If he is able to play, Howard’s size should cause plenty of problems for Miami, who may get only a few minutes out of Greg Oden. For his career, Howard has averaged 17.0 PPG (55% FG), 13.2 RPG and 1.6 BPG in 34 meetings with the Heat. SG James Harden (24.5 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.7 RPG) has been playing like an MVP as of late. Over the past seven games, Harden is averaging 29.6 PPG (49% FG, 43% threes), 7.4 APG and 4.9 RPG. In Saturday's win over Detroit, Harden had 20 points, 12 assists and five rebounds. He will need to outplay Dwyane Wade if the Rockets are going to come away with a long-awaited victory against the defending champs. This is certainly possible considering how well Harden performed in this series last season with 20.0 PPG (49% FG), 7.5 RPG and 6.0 APG in the two meetings.


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