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Heat, Spurs meet again on Thursday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/6/2014  at  7:04:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (43-15)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (44-16)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -3, Total: 209

Two red-hot teams clash on Thursday night when the Heat look to end the Spurs’ long winning streak in their second matchup since an epic seven-game 2013 NBA Finals.

Miami had won eight straight games (6-0-2 ATS) before falling 106-103 in Houston on Tuesday night. The Heat's offense has been rolling lately, averaging 111.8 PPG on 55.3% FG (40.7% threes) over the past four contests. The Spurs offense, however, has been just as good as they have averaged 111.5 PPG on 48.6% FG (42.4% threes) during their current four-game win streak (2-2 ATS). This finals rematch has the potential to be very high-scoring, just like the game these teams played on Jan. 26 when 3.5-point home favorite Miami defeated San Antonio 113-101. Including playoffs, the Heat hold an 8-3 SU (and 6-5 ATS) advantage in this series over the past three seasons, with seven of those 11 games (64%) going Over the total. However, the Spurs are 14-4 SU (11-6-1 ATS) as the host team in this series since 1996. Miami is not only 19-5 ATS (79%) on the road where the total is 200+ points over the past two seasons, but it is also 20-5 ATS (80%) in road games after allowing 105+ points in two straight games since 1996. But in the past three seasons, the Spurs are 31-11 ATS (74%) after scoring 105+ points in two straight games. While there are no injuries to mention, there’s an off-chance that Heat SG Dwyane Wade gets a maintenance day and sits this game out, or San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich decides to sit a majority of his starters by the time the game tips off.

Can the Spurs extend their win streak against the reigning champions? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been heating up in NBA Best Bets recently with a 55.3% ATS record (47-38-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a strong 57.4% ATS (39-29-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 53.3% ATS (49-43-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 65.5% ATS (19-10-1) since Jan. 25 and 58.6% ATS (34-24-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Zach has a profitable 54.7% ATS mark (35-29-3) on Best Bets since Dec. 1.

Miami has been outstanding on both ends of the court this season, as the club ranks seventh in the NBA in both scoring offense (104.7 PPG) and scoring defense (98.4 PPG). The Heat dish out 23.2 APG (9th in league), which leads to an NBA-best 51.1% FG clip, and their 37.1% three-point accuracy rate ranks 10th in the league. Defensively, they rack up 9.2 SPG, which helps them force 16.1 turnovers per game (2nd in NBA). The one Achilles heel remains rebounding (minus-4.0 RPG margin, 3rd-worst in league). Miami is coming off a tough road loss against the Rockets on Tuesday in which SG Dwyane Wade (19.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.8 APG) led the team in scoring with 24 points. Wade also had six assists and four rebounds in that game, and he will need to have another solid all-around performance if the Heat are going to defeat the Spurs. Wade scored just eight points (3-of-8 FG) with five assists in the Jan. 26 win in this series, but he had a strong NBA Finals showing last year with 19.6 PPG (48% FG), 4.6 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.9 SPG and 1.3 BPG in the seven games. SF LeBron James (27.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.4 APG) followed up a 61-point performance on Monday with 22 points (9-of-18 FG), six assists and just one rebound in 37 minutes in Tuesday's loss. In the Jan. 26 win over San Antonio, James had 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists in just 28 minutes of play, which was actually below his career averages of 27.4 PPG (51% FG), 7.1 RPG and 6.4 APG in 18 regular-season meetings with San Antonio. In last year's NBA Finals, James averaged a robust 25.3 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 7.0 APG and 2.3 SPG in the seven-game series. PF Chris Bosh (16.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) led the team in scoring in the earlier win over the Spurs this season with 24 points on a near-perfect 9-of-10 FG plus five rebounds and three assists. Bosh also played well in the 2013 NBA Finals (11.9 PPG, 46% FG, 8.9 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 1.6 BPG) and will need to be sound defensively, as he will be going up against Tim Duncan. PG Mario Chalmers (9.5 PPG, 5.0 APG, 1.8 SPG) will also be a huge X-factor in this game, as he will be matched up against Tony Parker. Chalmers was superb in the last meeting, finishing with 16 points (6-of-8 FG) and seven assists in 33 minutes. He will need to be hounding Parker all night on defense and hit his open shots when his teammates create for him.

Like Miami, San Antonio has also been tremendous on both ends of the court this season, scoring 104.3 PPG (9th in NBA) and allowing just 98.0 PPG (6th in league). The Spurs also thrive in finding the open man, amassing 24.9 APG (2nd in NBA). Their unselfishness leads to a healthy 48.8% FG clip (2nd in league, behind only Miami), while their great team defense holds opponents to 44.8% FG (9th in NBA). San Antonio is the much better rebounding club in this game, but its +0.3 RPG margin ranks 14th in the league. The Spurs have won seven of their past eight games, outscoring their opponents by 6.3 PPG during this stretch. In Tuesday night’s 122-101 blowout victory over the Cavaliers, SG Danny Green (8.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) caught fire with 24 points (9-of-15 FG, 3-of-7 threes) in 23 minutes. Green did not play against the Heat in the Jan. 26 loss, but he had a monster series in the 2013 NBA Finals with 14.0 PPG on 27-of-49 threes (55%), including 20.3 PPG on 67% threes (16-of-24) in the three postseason home games. Green could once again be a huge difference maker, as his outside shot creates some extra spacing for San Antonio to run its pick and rolls. PG Tony Parker (17.6 PPG, 6.2 APG) had just 11 points (4-of-9 FG) in the last meeting with the Heat and will need to do a better job of getting to the rim. Parker had a decent NBA Finals series against Miami with 15.7 PPG (41% FG) and 6.4 APG, but he had only seven points (3-of-11 FG) and five assists in 22 minutes on Tuesday. He will need to be much better if they are going to beat an elite team like Miami on Thursday. PF Tim Duncan (15.4 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG) will need to play better defense on Chris Bosh this time around. Bosh torched Duncan last game, but the veteran should be able to bounce back. He has averaged 19.0 PPG and 11.3 RPG in 27 career meetings with the Heat during the regular season (23 points on 9-of-13 FG on Jan. 26), and had a tremendous 2013 NBA Finals against them with 18.9 PPG (49% FG), 12.1 RPG and 1.4 BPG. SG Manu Ginobili (12.1 PPG, 4.6 APG) had an up-and-down series last June (11.6 PPG, 43% FG, 25% threes, 4.3 APG, 3.1 TOPG), but has been excellent recently, averaging 14.3 PPG (42% threes) and 6.8 APG over his team's four-game win streak. The Spurs will need production out of Ginobili who will see plenty of time matched up against Dwyane Wade.


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