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No. 20 MSU, No. 22 Iowa collide on Thursday
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Published: 3/6/2014  at  5:31:00 AM
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IOWA HAWKEYES (20-9)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (22-7)

Jack Breslin Students Events Center – East Lansing, MI
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -3.5

Slumping No. 20 Michigan State looks to right the ship for its season when it host No. 22 Iowa on Thursday's Senior Night in East Lansing.

The Spartans started the season 18-1 SU, but are just 4-6 SU (5-5 ATS) in their past 10 games, including a humiliating 53-46 home loss to 12.5-point underdog Illinois on Saturday. In that game, MSU shot just 39% from the field (6-of-18 FG) and 4-of-11 (36%) from the foul line. That dropped the team to 16-12 ATS (57%) overall this season, including 10-6 ATS in Big Ten play and a subpar 6-8 ATS at home. Like the Spartans, the Hawkeyes have had some struggles as of late, going 5-6 SU (4-7 ATS) in their past 11 games, including three losses in the past four contests. While the Iowa offense continues to click, scoring more than 80 points in five of the past six games, the defense has allowed 85.8 PPG during a four-game ATS losing skid. That puts the Hawkeyes at 15-12 ATS (56%) overall this season, which includes a stellar 7-3 ATS record on the road and an even 8-8 ATS mark in Big Ten play. But Iowa has not enjoyed playing in this series recently, going 1-12 SU (6-7 ATS) over the past 13 meetings, with its 71-69 overtime loss at home on Jan. 28 marking the seventh straight defeat to Michigan State in this series. The Spartans were without PF Adriean Payne and SF Branden Dawson in that matchup, but both teams are now back to full strength for this matchup. Both clubs also have four-star betting trends in their favor, as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two very good teams (8+ PPG margin), after allowing 75+ points in three straight games are 7-29 ATS (19%) since 1997, but Iowa is 11-1 ATS in the past two seasons after two straight games of giving up nine or less offensive rebounds.

Which team will pick up the key Big Ten win on Thursday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59% ATS (245-171-13) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (213-137-7) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 25-4-2 (86% ATS) since Jan. 17, is at 74% ATS (50-18-2) since Nov. 26 and a robust 70% ATS (57-25-3) in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 67% ATS (36-18) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 62% ATS (53-33-1) this season, while StatFox Scott is 73% ATS (8-3-1) since Feb. 16 and 58% ATS (48-35-3) for the season. StatFox Gary is 58% ATS (41-30) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 54% ATS (45-38-2) for the season.

Even despite the struggles in the win column as of late, Iowa does a lot of things very well. The club enters Thursday ranked fifth in the nation in scoring (83.6 PPG), 48th in shooting (47.0% FG), sixth in rebounding (41.7 RPG) and 11th in assists (16.3 APG). Although the defense allows 69.8 PPG (166th in Div. I), it limits opponents to 40.5% FG and 30.5% threes by racking up a decent amount of blocks (5.2 BPG, 34th in nation) and steals (7.2 SPG, 68th in Div. I). This is a team that has many offensive weapons, and they do a great job of realizing who has the hot hand and feeding him the ball. Senior PG Roy Devyn Marble (17.1 PPG, 3.4 APG, 38 % from the field) is one of the most talented guards in the country. While he is a terrific scorer, he can affect a game in many different ways. What makes him truly special though is his 6-foot-6 frame, something that makes him nearly impossible to guard. He is too big for opposing guards, and too quick for opposing forwards. When Marble is thriving like he was on Jan. 28 when he poured in a game-high 21 points (7-of-15 FG) and produced five rebounds and two blocks, Iowa is tough to beat. While Marble is the go-to player this season, head coach Fran McCaffery also has one of the top post players in the conference at his disposal in junior PF Aaron White (13.4 PPG, 59% FG, 6.9 RPG). Like Marble, White is another difficult matchup for his opponents to guard. He is able to play some on the perimeter, where he can put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. He is also good enough to where if he gets fouled, he makes the defense pay from the line (82% FT). White was 8-for-8 FT in the home loss to MSU, and has been on a scoring binge recently with 17.5 PPG on 61% FG in the past three contests. Six-foot-8 SF Jarrod Uthoff (7.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG) gives the Hawkeyes a guy they can rely on from long range (40% threes), but he made just 2-of-7 FG in the most recent loss to Michigan State. White and Marble have been consistent all season for the Hawkeyes, but Uthoff is the wild card on the team. If he can play up to his offensive talent, Iowa has a chance to get back to winning games.

While it has not been an easy part of the season for the Spartans, this is still a team that is talented enough to justify its national title aspirations. The offense averages 76.2 PPG (56th in nation) on 47.0% FG (50th in Div. I) and 17.1 APG (6th in nation). The defense isn't too shabby either, grabbing 37.6 RPG (51st in Div. I) and allowing only 65.3 PPG (58th in nation) on 39.7% FG (26th in Div. I) and 33.1% threes. Michigan State is able to keep scores down with an aggressive defensive mindset that tallies 7.2 SPG (63rd in nation) and 4.7 BPG (69th in Div. I). The backcourt of SG Gary Harris (17.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.7 APG, 2.0 SPG) and PG Keith Appling (13.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.4 RPG) is still one of the very best in the country. Harris has been the most consistent player for the Spartans this season, scoring in double-figures in all but two games. However, one of those two single-digit scoring games came on Jan. 28 when he made just 3-of-9 FG (0-for-4 threes) in the narrow win over Iowa. But Appling scored a team-high 16 points (6-of-14 FG) with four assists, three steals and three boards in the Jan. 28 win in Iowa City, while PF Matt Costello (4.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG) shined with a double-double of 11 points and 12 rebounds. Senior PF Adreian Payne (15.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and junior SF Branden Dawson (10.0 PPG on 59% FG, 8.6 RPG) are two terrific players that have been seriously limited by injuries this season, but Dawson was able to return on Saturday with six points and seven rebounds in 25 minutes of action. Payne has also been pretty sharp since his return to action, averaging 15.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG over seven games, but he played terribly in Saturday's defeat with four points and four turnovers in his 25 minutes.


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