StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

UFC Fight Night 38: Johnson vs. Guillard
By:   - 
Published: 3/8/2014  at  1:58:00 AM
  Print This Article    

UFC Fight Night 38: Johnson vs. Guillard

Saturday, March 8 – 4:05 p.m. ET
London, England

Michael Johnson (15-8) vs. Melvin Guillard (48-13-3)

Lightweight bout
Line: Johnson -130, Guillard Even

Michael Johnson looks to score another big victory in his career as he goes up against a very experienced fighter in Melvin Guillard at UFC Fight Night in London on Saturday.

Johnson has a two-match winning streak, and is coming off a dominating victory against Gleison Tibau on Dec. 28 when he finished off his opponent with a flurry of punches in the second round. Johnson is a big-time athlete that does a great job of using his speed and athleticism to keep bringing the pressure on his opponents. At 27 years old, he is just entering the prime of his career, and a win over Melvin Guillard would be another big step in that direction. The 30-year-old Guillard has been in the sport for many years, and is considered as one of the toughest competitors in all of MMA. He has gone up against some great fighters such as Donald Cerrone and Nate Diaz, and will be ready to go up against another talented fighter in Johnson. In the end though, JOHNSON's athleticism and speed will be too much, as he will get his third consecutive victory.

"The Menace" Johnson has 15 victories on his resume, with seven coming by way of knockout. He also has two wins by submission, leaving the other six by decision. He will have a slight advantage in this match when it comes to strikes landed per minute, averaging 3.53 compared to just 3.24 from Guillard. Johnson is also very good with his takedown defense, which could play a big role in this bout. He has a takedown defense rate of 77 %, while Guillard defends 65% of his opponents' takedowns. This is even more important though, as Guillard is very good with his takedown accuracy, completing 70% of his takedown attempts (57% for Johnson). Johnson is a young fighter that has a lot of potential in the sport and has a two-inch height advantage on Saturday, but he can’t afford to overlook the crafty veteran. Guillard is the type of opponent that is going to fight his style no matter what, and not let the bright lights change his mindset at all.

Of Guillard's 48 career victories, 26 have come by way of decision. However, he has frequently displayed his punching power with an impressive 20 wins in knockout fashion. He doesn't land as many strikes as his opponent by he is more accurate (42% to 39%) and defends strikes better at 68% (61% for Johnson). While Guillard does not win a lot of matches by submission (just two in his career), and has lost nine times by this method, his ground game is key to his ability to win matches by decision. "The Young Assassin" gains many points throughout the bout that gives him the edge to win by decision. He also is in terrific shape, which helps allow him to go the distance in the fight. If he is able to take the match to Johnson and keep it on the ground, he will have a great chance of winning this match as the slight underdog.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: