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Heat look to end 3-game losing skid Monday vs. Wizards
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/10/2014  at  5:36:00 AM
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WASHINGTON WIZARDS (33-29)

at MIAMI HEAT (43-17)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7, Total: 204

The slumping Heat look to end a three-game losing streak when they host the surging Wizards on Monday night.

Washington has won two straight games and eight of their past nine contests (5-3-1 ATS). The Wizards offense has really clicked as of late, averaging 115.5 PPG over its past six contests where it has tallied at least 104 points in each game. Miami, on the other hand, has scored just 92.7 PPG during its three-game losing skid (SU and ATS). The Heat defense has struggled too by surrendering 104.0 PPG during the slump, so if they don’t buckle down, this Wizards team could really cause them problems. Washington has a sparkling 22-9 ATS record (70%, T-2nd in NBA) on the road, while Miami is 24-4 SU at home, but its ATS record in South Beach is a subpar 11-16-1 ATS. This season, these two teams have met twice with both teams winning by double-digits on their home court. Miami won the first meeting 103-93 on Nov. 3, but failed to cover the 12.5-point spread, while Washington won 114-97 on Jan. 15 as 5.5-point underdogs. Over the past three seasons in this series, Miami holds a slight 5-4 SU advantage (4-5 ATS), including 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) at home. But the Wizards are 22-12-1 ATS (8-27 SU) when visiting the Heat since 1996. This season, Washington is a perfect 7-0-1 ATS (6-2 SU) versus division opponents, but over the past three seasons, Miami is 10-0 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games SU. SG Dwyane Wade (rest) is doubtful to play for the Heat on Monday night, but there are no other significant injuries for either team.

Can the Heat snap its losing skid with a sizable victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been profitable in NBA Best Bets recently with a 53.0% ATS record (53-47-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a strong 57.1% ATS (40-30-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 53.2% ATS (50-44-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 65.6% ATS (21-11-1) since Jan. 25 and 59.0% ATS (36-25-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12.

The Wizards are an average offensive team (100.9 PPG, 16th in NBA) and a slightly above-average defensive team (99.9 PPG allowed, 12th in league), with a great passing game (23.4 APG, 7th in NBA) and are mediocre rebounders (42.3 RPG, 19th in league). Washington is coming off a 114-107 victory over the Bucks on Saturday, and one player who has erupted for the team recently has been Trevor Ariza (15.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG). Ariza had 28 points (9-of-12 FG, 5-of-7 threes) and seven rebounds in that win, and averaging 25.0 PPG and 6.2 RPG over the past five games. He's scored just 11.5 PPG on 35% FG in two meetings with Miami this season. PG John Wall (19.7 PPG, 8.8 APG, 4.2 RPG) had 13 assists in the win over Milwaukee, but just nine points. The Wizards will need Wall to be aggressive going to the basket and looking for his shot. In the win over the Heat on Jan. 15, Wall had 25 points (7-of-14 FG), nine assists and five rebounds. Without injured PF Nene Hilario (knee), who had 19 points and nine assists in that win over Miami, the Wizards will need even more out of their All-Star floor leader. C Marcin Gortat (12.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG) will also be relied on to be more productive on offense. Over the past five games, Gortat is averaging 17.4 PPG (61% FG), 9.8 RPG and 1.6 BPG. SG Bradley Beal (17.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.4 APG) has also gotten hot for Washington with three straight 20-point games. He will have a prime opportunity to make the difference in this game if Dwyane Wade rests.

Miami ranks ninth in the NBA in both scoring (104.1 PPG) and passing (23.1 APG), while limiting teams to a solid 98.6 PPG (7th in league). But rebounding continues to be its Achilles heel, as the Heat are pulling down an NBA-worst 36.8 RPG. Miami has really struggled the past few games and its most recent 95-88 loss in overtime to the Bulls on Sunday will have to serve as a wake-up call. Miami led by 12 points in the second half, but couldn’t hang on as SF LeBron James (27.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.4 APG, 1.6 SPG) scored only 17 points on 8-of-23 FG. In Thursday's loss in San Antonio, the reigning MVP scored just 19 points on 6-of-18 shooting. But in two meetings with the Wizards this season, James has 25.0 PPG on 53% FG with 6.0 APG and 5.5 RPG. PF Chris Bosh (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG) had 15 points and five rebounds in 38 minutes in the loss to Chicago. Bosh will need to continue to be very aggressive against the Wizards, as he's netted 25.0 PPG (58% FG) with 7.0 RPG. The Wizards have a solid frontcourt, but with SG Dwyane Wade (19.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.8 RPG) doubtful, and James lacking aggression due to a broken nose, Bosh will need to look to shoot early and often. SG Ray Allen (9.0 PPG, 36% threes) should see starter’s minutes if Wade does miss this game and will need to provide some offense for this Heat team that has not been scoring the ball with any consistency the past week. However, Allen has scored a total of four points (20% FG) in two meetings with Washington this season.


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