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B.U. hosts American in Patriot League final
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Published: 3/12/2014  at  5:21:00 AM
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AMERICAN EAGLES (19-12)

at BOSTON UNIVERISTY TERRIERS (24-9)

Patriot League Tournament - Championship Game
Agganis Arena - Boston, MA
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Boston University -6.5

Boston University looks to get back to the NCAA Tournament Wednesday night as it hosts American in a matchup of the top two seeds in the Patriot League championship game.

These two teams split in the regular season, with both teams prevailing on their home court. The first matchup on Jan. 22 was an absolute blowout as the Eagles won by 30 points, shooting a school-record 71.4% FG (11-of-14 threes) and holding the Terriers to 32.0% FG. But B.U. got its revenge in the rematch on Feb. 19, dominating the glass 40-24 in a comfortable 71-62 win. American (3-0 ATS overall, 15-5 SU in Patriot League) won 11 straight games from Dec. 29 to Feb. 1, but is just 5-5 SU since the streak ended. Boston University (5-3-1 ATS overall, 17-3 SU in Patriot League), on the other hand, has really been on a roll, winning nine of its past 10 games. The offense has been on fire during the Patriot League tournament, scoring 91 points in both wins, while shooting a blistering 62% FG (44% threes). Most of the betting trends in this game side with the host Terriers, who are 16-5 ATS (76%) in the favorite role since 1997, and 27-13 ATS (68%) in all tournament games in this same timeframe.

Which team will earn an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts have been rolling in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59% ATS (256-175-16) mark, including a hefty 61% ATS (224-141-10) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 19-1-2 (95% ATS) since Feb. 6, 28-4-3 (88% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 75% ATS (53-18-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 71% ATS (60-25-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 66% ATS (37-19-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (54-34-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 64% ATS (9-5-2) since Feb. 16 and 57% ATS (49-37-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 60% ATS (45-30) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 56% ATS (49-38-2) for the season.

American does not put up a lot of points, ranking 316th in the nation in scoring with 64.2 PPG. However, that is in large part because of the style of basketball that the team plays, as it shoots exceptionally well with 49.3% FG (9th in Div. I) and 38.1% threes. The Eagles are very stingy on defense, allowing only 59.4 PPG (10th in Div. I) on 41.5% FG and 32.3% threes, but are a mediocre rebounding team with a +0.8 RPG margin. Leading the way for American is SG Jesse Reed (14.1 PPG, 47% threes, 4.4 RPG), who has had some big games as a sophomore. He averaged only 14 minutes per game as a freshman, but is now playing 35.0 MPG and has scored in double figures in 18 of his past 19 contests. Reed has 16.5 PPG on 65% FG and 6-of-8 threes in two meetings with the Terriers this season and scored 18 points in Saturday's semifinal win over Holy Cross. While Reed is the go-to scorer on the team, the Eagles have a plethora of players that can have a big game scoring. C Tony Wroblicky (12.1 PPG, 59% FG, 7.3 RPG, 1.9 BPG), SG John Schoof (11.7 PPG, 38% threes, 2.9 RPG) and 5-foot-9 PG Darius Gardner (11.3 PPG, 38% threes, 4.2 APG, 3.7 RPG, 2.2 SPG) have all had big games this season. A big reason for the great shooting percentages is the way the team shares the ball, ranking 35th in the nation in assists (15.3 APG). The Eagles do not hesitate to make the extra pass, making a good shot an even better shot. If they are able to share the ball and hit the open shot on Wednesday night, they have what it takes to pull off the upset.

Boston University has the more explosive offense in this game, averaging 72.5 PPG (132nd in Div. I) on 45.7% FG (104th in nation) and 36.8% threes, while dishing out 14.1 APG (75th in Div. I). The Terriers should also have the edge if this game stays close, as they have already logged four overtime games, and have recorded eight regulation wins by four points or less. They are also a quality defensive club, allowing only 67.4 PPG (107th in nation) on 43.5% FG despite a paltry 1.9 BPG (335th in Div. I). Those numbers improve to 64.6 PPG on 41.5% FG at home where they are 11-4 SU (3-1 ATS). But this team is deficient when it comes to hitting the boards with a minus-0.8 RPG margin. Sophomore PG Maurice Watson Jr. (13.5 PPG, 50% FG, 3.6 RPG, 2.2 SPG) is clearly the team's best player with the ability to take over a game both by scoring and finding open teammates. He currently ranks fourth in the nation in assists (7.0 APG) and has tallied a 2.5 Ast/TO ratio. In B.U.'s 91-70 rout in against Army in Saturday's semifinal, Watson dominated the game with 17 assists and just one turnover, adding 10 points and two steals. That followed up his monster tournament opener when he tallied 21 points (9-of-14 FG), eight assists, seven rebounds and four steals in just 27 minutes of a 91-54 demolition of Lafayette. With seniors SG D.J. Irving (12.5 PPG, 38% threes, 3.5 RPG) and SF Dom Morris (11.2 PPG, 39% threes, 6.2 RPG) both capable of having a big nights, the Terriers are a hard team to slow down. Sophomore SG John Papale (9.5 PPG, 43% threes) gives B.U. another guy that is capable of scoring from the perimeter, as he poured in 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting (2-of-4 threes) in Saturday's win.


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