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Heat favored big over Nets on Wednesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/12/2014  at  4:54:00 AM
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BROOKLYN NETS (32-30)

at MIAMI HEAT (44-17)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -9, Total: 200.5

The Nets head to South Beach on Wednesday to take on a Heat team that needs every win it can get in order to catch the Pacers and claim the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Brooklyn has been on fire recently, with Monday's 101-97 win over Toronto making the club 6-1 (SU and ATS) in its past seven games. The Nets defense, that allows just 98.9 PPG this season (9th in NBA), is allowing a paltry 91.1 PPG during these past seven contests and will need more of the same against a Heat squad with 104.0 PPG (9th in league). Miami defeated Washington 99-90 on Monday, but it had lost three straight games prior to that. The Heat are averaging just 91.3 PPG (44.6% FG) over the past three games and they must turn things around on that side of the ball as this NBA season enters the final stretch. Miami has won eight straight home games in this series, but is just 4-4 ATS during this SU streak. But Brooklyn has won-and-covered in both meetings with the Heat this season, prevailing by a total of 10 points these two home games. Playing to Brooklyn’s advantage, the Heat are 24-43 ATS in home games off a win against a division rival since 1996. Miami, however, is a perfect 11-0 ATS after having lost three of their previous four games over the past three seasons.

Can the Heat secure a double-digit win in this matchup? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been profitable in NBA Best Bets recently with a 53% ATS record (56-49-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a strong 58% ATS (41-30-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 54% ATS (51-44-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 65% ATS (22-12-1) since Jan. 25 and 59% ATS (37-26-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12.

While Brooklyn's defense remains strong, the offense is still lagging behind with 97.5 PPG (22nd in NBA) and 20.6 APG (23rd in league), while the rebounding remains horrible (38.2 RPG, 2nd-worst in NBA). But the Nets have really played some excellent basketball since the start of the new year, losing just nine games in 2014 (22-9 SU, 71%). Five players on the team finished in double-digits in Monday's victory. One of those players was SF Paul Pierce (13.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG) who had hurt himself on Sunday against the Kings, but didn’t appear to be bothered with 15 points (3-of-4 threes), four rebounds and four steals. SG Shaun Livingston (7.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.0 APG) had 18 points (7-of-10 FG) in 33 minutes that night, and will be an X-factor against the Heat as he had 19 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in the overtime win over them on Jan. 10. Another player who really lit it up that game was SG Joe Johnson (15.2 PPG), who played 46 minutes and finished with 32 points (14-of-25 FG, 4-of-6 threes), five assists and four rebounds. Dwyane Wade did not play in that game, and Johnson took advantage of a mismatch with Ray Allen. PF Kevin Garnett (6.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG) had 12 points and 10 rebounds in that victory for Brooklyn, but has missed six games in a row with a back injury. However, he could appear in this game as he was a last-second scratch on Monday and now has had two days to rest. His presence can only help the Nets on defense.

Miami is a horrendous rebounding team (league-worst 36.8 RPG), but it excels in most other areas with 104.0 PPG on offense (9th in NBA) and 98.4 PPG allowed (7th in league). Although the Heat have struggled recently, they still find themselves just 1.5 games behind Indiana for the Eastern Conference’s top spot. Since his career-high, 61-point game on March 3, SF LeBron James (27.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.5 APG) is averaging just 20.3 PPG on 44.6% FG over the past four games. But James has a great opportunity to get back on track against a Nets team that he scored 36 points against in the last meeting, adding seven rebounds and five assists. The Heat were without Dwyane Wade (19.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.8 RPG) in that contest, and Wade has been playing very well throughout the course of James’ mini slump, averaging 21.8 PPG and 5.8 APG in 36.5 MPG over the past four contests. Not only will Wade need to get into the lane to create scoring opportunities, but he will also need to play sound defense on Joe Johnson. The Heat were also without starting PG Mario Chalmers (9.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) in the loss to Brooklyn last game. His absence allowed PG Norris Cole (7.1 PPG, 3.0 APG) to get the start, and his quickness was a problem for the Nets guards. Cole played 52 minutes in that game, finishing with 18 points and seven assists. His play off the bench could really boost Miami in this one.


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