NCAA Tournament - First Round
University of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH
Tip-off: Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. ET
Line: Albany -2, Total: 141.5

Albany and Mount Saint Mary's will open the 2014 NCAA Tournament on Tuesday night in Dayton, OH with the winner advancing to play No. 1 Florida on Thursday.

Mount St. Mary's finished tied for fourth in the Northeast Conference during the regular season, but pulled out a stunning 88-71 road victory against NEC No. 1 seed Robert Morris in the tournament championship. The Mountaineers had a terrific shooting game that night, knocking down 60.4% FG. Balanced scoring was key for the Mountaineers, as SG Rashad Whack’s 20 points led five players in double-figures. The team enters the NCAAs riding a four-game win streak (2-1 ATS), but will be going up against a team that is also feeling very confident. Albany was also to knock off the top two teams in the American East on its way to the conference champion, including a 69-60 road victory against Stony Brook on Sunday to earn the automatic berth. The Great Danes did a tremendous job of attacking the rim and drawing fouls, converting on 18-of-19 free throw attempts. SF Sam Rowley led the way with 18 points, and he will be looked upon to carry the team in this matchup. These schools have actually met twice since 2010, with Albany winning by 20 at home and then eking out a one-point victory on the road on New Year's Eve 2011. Most of the betting trends favor the Great Danes, who are 7-0 ATS when having won three of their past four games over the past two seasons, but the Mountaineers are 5-3 ATS in the underdog role in the past three seasons.

Which 16-seed team will move on to face Florida? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts enter the NCAA Tournament red-hot in college basketball Best Bets this season with a stellar 59.4% ATS (271-185-16) mark, including a hefty 61.3% ATS (239-151-10) record since Nov. 23. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 22-3-2 (88% ATS) since Feb. 6, 31-6-3 (84% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 74% ATS (56-20-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 70% ATS (63-27-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 64% ATS (39-22-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 60% ATS (56-37-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 68% ATS (13-6-2) since Feb. 16 and 58% ATS (53-38-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 60% ATS (48-32) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 57% ATS (52-40-2) for the season.

Mount St. Mary's has done a terrific job of scoring this season, averaging 76.3 PPG (49th in nation) on 44.1% FG (183rd in Div. I) and 35.6% threes (121st in nation) with a strong 74.1% FT clip (38th in Div. I). Strong foul shooting is important for this team that prefers to score by attacking one-on-one. SG Rashad Whack (17.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and PG Julian Norfleet (17.5 PPG, 5.4 APG) comprise a terrific backcourt that does a great job of complementing each other’s games. Norfleet, who had a team-high 15 points with six rebounds in the loss to Albany two seasons ago, loves to drive by his defenders to either take it to the hole or kick the ball out to scorers like Whack or Sam Prescott (11.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Prescott is another guy that can put up points for the Mountaineers from all areas, but he is not the most accurate three-point shooter at 32.2%. They are a poor defensive team though, surrendering 78.0 PPG (334th in nation) on 49.3% FG (346th in Div. I). If MSM is able to keep up its great offense that has averaged 78.8 PPG on 49.3% FG during its four-game win streak, then Mount Saint Mary's has a great chance of advancing to the next round.

But it's never easy to score points on Albany's stellar defense that limits opponents to 63.8 PPG (39th in Div. I) on 41.9% FG (87th in nation) this season. Offense has been much more difficult for the Great Danes this season, as they rank 295th in Division I assists (11.1 APG), leading to a paltry 66.0 PPG (287th in nation) on 43.9% FG (189th in Div. I). But unlike the Mountaineers, Albany shoots very well from three-point range at 36.4% (90th in nation). SG Peter Hooley (15.7 PPG, 40% threes, 86% FT) is a terrific young scoring guard. The sophomore from Australia has emerged as a go-to scorer for Albany, and was on fire America East Tournament, averaging 23.7 PPG (12-of-23 threes) in the three victories. SG Sam Rowley (11.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG), PG DJ Evans (11.2 PPG, team-high 2.8 APG) and SF Gary Johnson (10.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG) are all capable scorers of having big games for the Great Danes. Albany’s calling card has been its defense this season, and in facing a fast-paced offense like the Mountaineers, the Danes will need to slow down the tempo and continue to lock down on defense.