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Iowa, Tennessee collide in Wednesday's First Four
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Published: 3/19/2014  at  4:51:00 AM
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IOWA HAWKEYES (20-12)

vs. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (21-12)

NCAA Tournament - First Round
University of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. ET
Line: Iowa -2, Total: 143.5

Tennessee and Iowa look to keep their seasons going in the First Round of the 2014 NCAA Tournament on Wednesday night.

The Volunteers have played great basketball so far in March, going 4-1 (SU and ATS) with the lone loss being to No. 1 Florida on Saturday. They played the Gators really tough in that SEC Tournament semifinal game, holding them to 56 points in a seven-point loss. Tennessee is now 16-13-2 ATS overall (55%) this season, going 3-2 ATS on a neutral court and 5-5-1 ATS in non-conference games. To succeed, the Volunteers rely on one of the most rugged frontcourts in the country in SF Jarnell Stokes and PF Jeronne Maymon. The duo combines to average 18.5 RPG, helping to create scoring opportunities for some talented perimeter players. While the Vols have been a terrific rebounding team (+8.5 RPG margin), they will be facing another team that can do a lot of work on the glass. The Hawkeyes have posted a +7.4 RPG margin this season, but are playing horribly heading into the NCAA Tournament with seven straight ATS defeats (1-6 SU), including a humiliating 67-62 loss to 14-point underdog Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament. That drops Iowa to an even 15-15 ATS overall this season, which includes a 7-4 ATS mark in non-conference games and a 1-3 ATS mark on neutral courts. Despite the slide, the Hawkeyes still have the ability to play with a lot of teams because of their ability to dominate the glass. Although they are 0-8 ATS coming off 2+ straight losses as a favorite since 1997, Iowa is also 33-17 ATS (66%) when facing a good team (60% to 80% win pct.) under head coach Fran McCaffery. The clubs have met just once since 1997, which was an 80-68 neutral-court win for Tennessee. Whichever team is able to get the rebounding edge will go a long way in determining who will get the victory and face Massachusetts on Friday.

Will Iowa be able to snap its losing skid on Wednesday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts opened the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday with a 3-0 ATS mark, making them a stellar 60% ATS (274-185-16) in college basketball Best Bets this season. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 23-3-2 (89% ATS) since Feb. 6, 32-6-3 (84% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 74% ATS (57-20-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 70% ATS (64-27-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (40-22-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (57-37-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 68% ATS (13-6-2) since Feb. 16 and 58% ATS (53-38-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 60% ATS (48-32) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 57% ATS (52-40-2) for the season, while StatFox Zach 64% ATS (7-4) since March 2.

Looking at the stats, the Hawkeyes have the numbers of a highly-ranked team. They enter the tournament ranked 10th in the nation in scoring (82.0 PPG), while also ranking 11th in assists (16.2 APG) and seventh in rebounding, averaging 40.7 RPG. They also have shot the ball very well this season at 46.5% FG (64th in Div. I), 35.3% threes and 73.3% FT. Defensively, Iowa allows 70.1 PPG, but holds opponents to 41.4% FG and 32.0% threes. While the Volunteers have McRae, the Hawkeyes have their own versatile wing player in PG Roy Devyn Marble (17.3 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.3 RPG). Marble is a 6-foot-6 combo guard with has the size and athleticism to cause major problems for the defense. He shoots 36% from the three-point line, but has made only 6-of-22 threes over his past five games. However, Marble has still managed to score at least 20 points in four of these past five contests. Junior PF Aaron White (13.0 PPG, 59% FG, 6.7 RPG) is another talented player that can take over the game, but this is a difficult matchup for him. He has the ability to play a little on the perimeter, but does not have the strength or athleticism that the Volunteers frontcourt has. White has also played poorly during his team's three-game losing skid, averaging only 9.0 PPG and 4.7 RPG. If he struggles again versus this strong front line, that is going to put more pressure on PG Mike Gesell (8.1 PPG, 3.9 APG) and SF Jarrod Uthoff (7.7 PPG, 43% threes, 4.7 RPG) to have big games. Marble has shown the ability that he is going to put up solid numbers against most defenders, but this duo must step up big and force the Volunteers to have to respect them. SF Melsahn Basabe (7.5 PPG, 57% FG, 5.7 RPG) is another guy the Hawkeyes will be looking to score some points, something he has not done much of in March with a paltry 3.5 PPG average in four games.

Tennessee last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2011 when it suffered a 30-point defeat to Michigan (74-45). The club comes into the game shooting a pedestrian 44.7% FG (149th in Div. I) and 33.6% threes (212th in nation), leading to 71.3 PPG (169th in Div. I). But in Saturday's loss to the Gators, the Volunteers had a lead in the second half before a technical on PF Jeronne Maymon (10.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG) changed the momentum of the game. However, that passion and energy is a big reason why Maymon is able to be so successful. He is an undersized power forward with a limited offensive game, but does all his work with maximum effort and energy. Teaming with SF Jarnell Stokes (14.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG), the Volunteers have the ability to be a handful down low (38.8 RPG, 21st in nation). Stokes is the more skilled of the duo, and has the ability to hit the 15-foot jump shot on a consistent level. Stokes has scored in double-figures in 15 straight games, with 10 of those being double-doubles. With those two dominating down low, it allows SG Jordan McRae (18.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG) to play his style of game. While he will sometimes take questionable shots (43% FG), when McRae gets rolling, there are very few players in the country that can score like him. He knocks down 37% of his threes and 79% FT. SG Josh Richardson (9.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG) and PG Antonio Barton (7.5 PPG, 2.1 APG) are not going to take over the game for Tennessee, but do a great job of complementing the other three starters. The Volunteers have been tested this season, and have one of the most impressive non-conference victories with a 35-point win against Virginia. They also have the momentum that the Hawkeyes are lacking.


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