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Mavs look to stay hot Wednesday hosting Wolves
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 3/19/2014  at  4:20:00 AM
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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (33-32)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (41-27)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -5, Total: 211

The Mavericks continues their eight-game homestand when they host the Timberwolves on Wednesday night.

Minnesota has shown inconsistencies in its game all season long and has flip-flopped wins and losses over its past seven contests, going 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS. The Wolves barely pulled out a victory against the double-digit underdog Kings on Sunday, winning 104-102 despite shooting just 43.6% from the field compared to 48.2% FG for Sacramento. Their advantage came from the charity stripe as they made 16 more free throws than their opponent. Dallas comes into this game riding a three-game SU winning streak while going 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) over its past six contests. The Mavs defeated the Celtics 94-89 in the first game of their homestand on Monday night, while failing to cover the 12-point spread. Their defense was tremendous in the game, holding Boston to just 36.6% shooting. The advantage for Wednesday's matchup will certainly go to Dallas playing at home, as Minnesota is just 14-19 SU (18-15 ATS) on the road and the Mavericks are a very solid 22-10 SU at home while going only 15-17 ATS. This will be the last matchup between the two teams this season as they have already squared off three times earlier in the season, with the Timberwolves going 2-1 SU and ATS. They were unable to defend their homecourt in the last meeting though, losing to Dallas 100-98 as four-point favorites. Minnesota was sloppy with the ball in the game, turning it over 17 times, which was a major factor in the loss. The Timberwolves have gotten the best of the Mavericks recently as well, with a 6-4 record (SU and ATS) over the past three seasons. The loss to Dallas at home in their last contest could be a good sign for bettors though, since they are 13-3 ATS (81%) this season when revenging a home loss versus an opponent. The Mavericks have also put money in pockets this season following an ATS loss, going 20-9 ATS (69%) in these situations. C Nikola Pekovic (ankle) is questionable for the Timberwolves in this game, while the Mavericks bring a clean bill of health into the contest.

Can Dallas run its win streak to four games on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The five StatFox experts have been surging in NBA Best Bets recently with a 54% ATS record (69-60-1) since Feb. 10. StatFox Dave has a strong 57% ATS (43-33-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1 and is 53% ATS (53-47-1) on Best Bets for the season. StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 63% ATS (24-14-1) since Jan. 25 and 58% ATS (39-28-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Gary is also heating up with a 62% ATS mark (13-8) since Feb. 13, while StatFox Zach is on a 5-1 ATS run since March 9.

The Timberwolves are one of the quickest and most explosive offenses in the NBA, averaging 106.1 PPG (4th in league) this season. Their offense has remained consistent throughout the season, but the defense doesn't usually hold up its end of the bargain, surrendering 102.5 PPG this season (9th-worst in NBA). Over the past five games they have done even worse, giving up 104.0 PPG on 47% FG. PF Kevin Love (26.4 PPG, 12.9 RPG) has a league-high 54 double-doubles in 62 games played this season, and scored 26 points with 10 rebounds in the win over the Kings. He has carried his double-double skills over against Dallas this season, averaging 29.7 PPG (54% FG) and 12.3 RPG over three games. SG Kevin Martin (19.5 PPG, 39% threes) is coming off a big game (31 points) on Sunday and has scored 20+ points in 6-of-8 March contests. With 18.2 PPG (46% FG) over 25 career games (17 starts) against the Mavericks, Martin has always performed well against them. PG Ricky Rubio (8.9 PPG, 8.5 APG, 2.4 SPG) has been battling with Chris Paul as the best ball stealer in the game and has multiple steals in each of his past six games. His three contests against Dallas this season have been very close to his season averages as he has netted 7.3 PPG (30% FG) to go along with 8.0 APG and 2.7 SPG.

While the Mavericks have scored fewer points this season than Minnesota, putting up 104.1 PPG (8th in NBA), they have been a much more efficient offense with the sixth best shooting mark (47.2% FG) in the league. They have scored fewer points (100.2 PPG) over their past five games, but have benefited from great defensive efforts, allowing their opponents to score just 95.6 PPG (44% FG). Overall on the season, they are giving up a pedestrian 101.8 PPG (18th in NBA). PF Dirk Nowitzki (21.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is having a bounce-back season after a subpar 2012-13, and is also the league leader in foul shooting, knocking down 91.8% from the free-throw line. He has scored 21.6 PPG (48% FG) while adding 7.6 RPG over 52 career games in this matchup, but has done slightly worse (17.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG) in the three contests this season. SG Monta Ellis (18.7 PPG, 5.8 APG, 1.8 SPG) has brought a feeling of youth and energy to this team all season, but has made only 39% FG over his past five games. Over 22 career contests against the Timberwolves, Ellis has averaged 17.9 PPG (47% FG) with only 4.1 APG. SG Vince Carter (11.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG) has continued to be a productive player despite his age (37) and has played in every game besides one this season. Coming off the bench in two games against Minnesota this season, Carter has posted only 8.0 PPG (29% FG) and 5.0 RPG, which is much lower than his 18.2 PPG (43% FG) that he has in 30 career games against them.


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