NCAA Tournament - Round of 64
BMO Harris Bradley Center - Milwaukee, WI
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Texas -2, Total: 141.5

The Texas Longhorns are back in the NCAA Tournament after missing last season, and will look to get a victory Thursday against a talented, but underachieving, Arizona State team.

The Sun Devils are stumbling into the Big Dance, losing their past three games (0-2-1 ATS) due to some horrible shooting (39.8% FG). In their most recent game last Thursday, they were drilled 79-58 in the Pac-12 Tournament by Stanford, which handed ASU its sixth straight loss away from home (0-5-1 ATS). Arizona State is just 14-15-1 ATS overall, including 5-9-1 ATS in non-home games, but it was a solid 7-4 ATS in non-conference games and finished the regular season as one of five teams tied for third place in the Pac-12, including wins against tourney teams Arizona, Stanford and Oregon. One thing the Sun Devils have in their advantage is one of the most talented point guards in the nation in Jahii Carson, who can dominate a game in many different ways. While the Sun Devils are sparked by the play from the perimeter, the Longhorns go at it a different way. Texas is a dominant rebounding team, ranking fourth in the nation with 41.8 RPG and producing a hefty +7.2 RPG margin. Sophomore C Cameron Ridley has made significant strides from his first season, and is a big reason why the Longhorns are back in the NCAA Tournament. But the Longhorns are also struggling in the past couple weeks, going 3-5 SU (2-6 ATS) in their past eight games overall and 1-6 (SU and ATS) in their past seven games outside of Austin. However, Texas won four consecutive games against Top 25 teams from Jan. 18 to Feb. 1, and Big 12 Coach of the Year Rick Barnes has a lot of experience in the NCAA Tournament. Both teams have negative betting trends, as Arizona State is just 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season and 2-10 ATS over the past three seasons in non-home games after producing 5 or less offensive rebounds. Texas is 0-6 ATS in non-home games after forcing an opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers in the past two seasons, and 4-13 ATS in the past three seasons on the road coming off one or more consecutive Overs.

Which team will move on to Saturday's Round of 32? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts opened the NCAA Tournament with a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in First Four games, making them a stellar 60% ATS (278-185-16) in college basketball Best Bets this season. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 23-3-2 (89% ATS) since Feb. 6, 32-6-3 (84% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 74% ATS (57-20-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 70% ATS (64-27-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (41-22-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (58-37-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (14-6-2) since Feb. 16 and 59% ATS (54-38-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 61% ATS (50-32) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 57% ATS (54-40-2) for the season, while StatFox Zach 64% ATS (7-4) since March 2.

The Sun Devils average 75.0 PPG (71st in nation) with a solid 45.0% FG clip (133rd in Div. I) and 38.6% threes (34th in nation). Their 1.2 Ast/TO ratio is adequate, but their rebounding is subpar at minus-2.5 RPG. Defensively, Arizona State holds it own with 68.9 PPG allowed (142nd in Div. I) on 41.5% FG (82nd in nation) and 32.4% threes (80th in Div. I). Sophomore PG Jahii Carson (18.6 PPG, 4.5 APG, 4.0 RPG) is the type of guy that can take over a game all by himself, averaging a hefty 19.2 PPG over his past 15 games, which includes eight 20-point efforts. He is not the biggest guard at only 5-foot-10, but he is incredibly quick and can get into the paint at will. He also has a 40-point game under his belt this season when dropped 40 points with seven assists at UNLV. However, Carson is not the only guy on this team that is capable of going off for a big night. SG Jermaine Marshall (15.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 40% threes) is a very talented player, pouring in 20+ points on 11 different occasions this season. With the defense so focused on not allowing Carson to get into the paint, this opens up opportunities for Marshall to get wide-open shots on the perimeter. But he is on a cold streak, entering the Big Dance with just 4.5 PPG on 3-of-20 FG in the past two games. Both of these guys do a terrific job of applying ball pressure on the opponents, in large part because of the big guy manning the middle. Senior C Jordan Bachynski (11.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG) can absolutely change the game down low, leading the nation in blocked shots with 4.1 BPG, and producing 13 games of at least five rejections. But he needs to look for his offense more, scoring in single-digits in six of his past seven games. Senior SG Shaquielle McKissic (9.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 APG) is the glue guy on the team who does whatever is needed to get the win, and has back-to-back, 12-point efforts where he's made 8-of-11 FG. If the backcourt can set the tone in this game, the Sun Devils will have a chance. However, that will be a difficult thing against a bruising team like the Longhorns.

Texas does a solid job of scoring the ball 74.1 PPG (84th in Div. I), but has struggled at times shooting the ball (43.1% FG, 239th in nation), especially from long range (32.4% threes, 272nd in Div. I). But the Horns hold teams to 70.0 PPG (177th in nation) on a meager 39.8% FG (23rd in Div. I) and 34.2% threes (174th in nation). The team's leading scorer is PF Jonathan Holmes (13.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG) who can finish against bigger defenders at the rim, and also knock down threes at a respectable 35.4% clip. He knocked down the game-winning three-pointer at the final buzzer to beat Kansas State 67-64 on Jan. 21. Freshman PG Isaiah Taylor (12.5 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.3 RPG) and sophomore SG Javan Felix (11.8 PPG, 2.9 APG) are a young backcourt that can take over a game, but also can struggle at times. As a freshman Taylor has had some big performances, averaging 25.0 PPG in back-to-back wins against Top 25 teams Baylor and Kansas. Like Carson, Taylor is a blur with the ball that can become a one-man fast break, and has posted some big games, such as his 25.0 PPG in back-to-back victories against Baylor and Kansas as part of the four straight wins over ranked opponents that began in late January. Felix has scored 16+ points nine times in his 20 games in the 2014 calendar year, but has averaged a mere 6.0 PPG on 29% FG (6-of-27 threes) in five March contests. However, if the Longhorns are going to get the win, they will have to feed the ball down low to C Cameron Ridley (11.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.2 BPG). The biggest reason for his improvement this season is his cardio, able to log 25.3 MPG compared to just 16.4 MPG last season. Bachynski has been terrific for the Sun Devils this season, but has not matched up against many players with the size of Ridley. If Ridley is able to use his big frame and really attack Bachynski, the Sun Devils' big man could get in foul trouble, and without Bachynski dominating the paint for Arizona State, guards like Taylor and Felix could have big games.