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Nebraska looks for first NCAA tourney win Friday vs. Baylor
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Published: 3/21/2014  at  5:58:00 AM
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NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (19-12)

vs. BAYLOR BEARS (24-11)

NCAA Tournament - Round of 64
AT&T Center - San Antonio, TX
Tip-off: Friday, 12:40 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -3.5, Total: 130.5

Nebraska seeks its first-ever NCAA Tournament win on Friday when it goes up against former Big 12 rival Baylor.

The Cornhuskers have been playing some terrific basketball as of late, going 10-3 (SU and ATS) in their past 13 games. They also had Ohio State on the ropes in the Big Ten Tournament, but squandered an 18-point lead in an eventual 71-67 defeat. Nebraska appeared to be on its way to another tough season, but an upset road victory at Michigan State on Feb. 16 changed the outlook on the entire season. With three victories against Top 20 teams, the Cornhuskers have shown the ability to play with anybody, and sit with an outstanding 20-10 ATS mark overall, but they are a pedestrian 2-2 ATS in neutral sites and 5-6 ATS in non-conference games. However, they are just 3-8 SU versus NCAA Tournament teams this season. Much like Nebraska, Baylor was in big trouble after starting 2-8 SU in the Big 12. However, unlike years in the past, the Bears bounced back and went on a tear, going 10-2 SU (9-3 ATS) in their final dozen regular season games to help get to the Big Dance. They are 11-9 SU versus other tourney teams during this season where they possess a 14-14-1 ATS record, including 4-4 ATS in neutral-site games and 3-4 ATS (12-1 SU) in non-conference action. This was an even series when the schools were both in the Big 12 with Nebraska holding a slight 9-8 SU (11-6 ATS) series advantage since 1997, but Baylor has won three meetings in a row (1-2 ATS), with the last two coming by a combined six points. Both teams have sound betting trends as the Huskers are 15-3 ATS (83%) after two straight conference games this season, while the Bears are 35-23 ATS (60%) in March games under Scott Drew.

Can Baylor post a comfortable victory over a quality Nebraska squad on Friday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts opened the NCAA Tournament with a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in First Four games, making them a stellar 60% ATS (278-185-16) in college basketball Best Bets this season. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 23-3-2 (89% ATS) since Feb. 6, 32-6-3 (84% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 74% ATS (57-20-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 70% ATS (64-27-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (41-22-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (58-37-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (14-6-2) since Feb. 16 and 59% ATS (54-38-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 61% ATS (50-32) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 57% ATS (54-40-2) for the season, while StatFox Zach 64% ATS (7-4) since March 2.

When you look at the team statistics, the Cornhuskers do not rank high in any of the major categories. They rank 273rd in the nation in scoring (67.0 PPG), 257th in shooting (42.7% FG), 251st in rebounding (33.4 RPG), and 342nd in assists (9.6 APG). The Cornhuskers do not shoot the three-ball particularly well either (33.9%, 195th in nation), but they do a great job of applying constant pressure to the opposing defense. The calling card for Tim Miles' Nebraska team has been the defense, as it ranks 53rd in the nation in scoring defense with 64.9 PPG allowed on 42.0% FG (96th in Div. I) and 31.9% threes (61st in nation). It has been a long time since Nebraska has been in the NCAA Tournament (1998), but the job that coach Miles is doing has been downright impressive. SF Terran Petteway (18.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG) has had a monster sophomore campaign for the Cornhuskers. The Texas Tech transfer is absolutely fearless when driving in the lane, putting constant pressure on the opposing defenders by making 82% of his 6.3 free-throw attempts per game. Petteway has scored in double-figures in 29 of 31 games this season, while dropping 20+ points in five of his past eight contests. Six-foot-7 swingman Shavon Shields (12.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is another guy that has shown the ability to make plays attacking the rim, and has scored at least dozen points in all four games in March, averaging 18.0 PPG and 6.8 RPG this month. SG Deverell Biggs (9.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG) and 6-foot-10 PF Walter Pitchford (9.5 PPG, 42% threes, 4.7 RPG) give the Cornhuskers more scoring. Pitchford is especially important for Nebraska as he is the lone-threat from the three-point line. Baylor will play a lot of zone, and has the size and length to make it very difficult for Nebraska to score inside the paint. That will put added pressure on Pitchford to hit some shots from the perimeter to open up some driving lanes. However, the team's tenacity and effort allows it to remain in games. The Huskers will have to outhustle their Thursday opponent, because the Bears have a significant talent advantage.

Scott Drew has done a great job turning the season around, as the Bears were down by only two points with 2:23 left in the Big 12 Championship before allowing Iowa State to end the game on a 12-5 run. Baylor comes into this game ranked 24th in the nation in rebounding (38.7 RPG), 46th in assists (15.0 APG) and 68th in scoring (75.2 PPG) on 45.5% FG (104th in Div. I). Baylor has a tremendous frontcourt that does a terrific job of contesting shots at the rim, as its 194 blocks rank 14th in the nation. This presence helps to limit opponents to 68.4 PPG (124th in Div. I) on 42.4% FG (113th in nation). The Bears don't defend the three-point shot very well (36.3% threes, 281st in Div. I), but that shouldn't be a problem against a Nebraska that shoots poorly from long-range and prefers to attack the rim. PF Cory Jefferson (13.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG) is playing the best basketball of his career with five 20-point games in his past 11 contests. While he does not shoot a lot of three-pointers (0.9 attempts per game), he has shown the ability to step out and hit the long-range shot with his 42.4% three-point clip. Jefferson does a great job of running a pick-and-roll with his guards, as he can go right to the basket or also step out and the hit the outside shot. His ability to play on the perimeter opens up a lot of opportunities for 7-foot-1 C Isaiah Austin (11.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.2 BPG) and 6-foot-8 SF Rico Geathers (6.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) to have the opportunities to go to work on the block. Austin is a skilled big that will also tend to hang around the perimeter with Jefferson at times, but Geathers knows his role on the team. He has the build of a linebacker, and gets the Bears many second chance opportunities with 99 offensive rebounds. While the inside game of Baylor is the strength, there are some talented players on the perimeter as well. PG Kenny Cherry (11.6 PPG, 5.0 APG, 2.5 RPG) has done a great job of running the show with the loss of Pierre Jackson from last season’s team. Chery is not the explosive player Jackson was, but he does a great job of taking care of the basketball (2.5 Ast/TO ratio). His backcourt mate, SG Brady Heslip (11.8 PPG) is one of the elite shooters in all of college basketball who knocks down threes at 47% clip, which is much greater than his 35% FG rate from inside the arc. With the way the Bears gobble up rebounds, many of their second chances involve kicking it out to Heslip for the three-point shot. The Bears are really clicking right now on offense, thanks in large part to the senior's 16.7 PPG (12-of-20 threes) over his past three contests.


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