NCAA Tournament - Round of 64
Scottrade Center - St. Louis, MO
Tip-off: Friday, 9:40 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -5.5, Total: 132.5

Kentucky will look to secure their first NCAA Tournament win since their national title in 2012 as it takes on Kansas State on Friday night.

The UK Wildcats (15-17 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS on neutral courts) appear to be getting closer to the team that many of the experts were predicting to win a national title at the beginning of the season. Last Sunday, coach John Calipari’s team showed its potential by nearly pulling off a stunning comeback from a 16-point deficit against No. 1 Florida in the SEC Championship game before eventually falling 61-60. That makes Kentucky 3-6 SU versus teams that reached the NCAA Tournament. A big problem for the team this season has been its lack of a true point guard. Andrew and Aaron Harrison are both talented players, but as freshmen, have struggled to get the team into its offense on a consistent basis. That could play a big role in this game, as the KSU Wildcats (16-13-1 ATS, 3-3 ATS on neutral courts) are a terrific defensive team. Bruce Weber’s squad allows 65.7 PPG (67th in nation) on 40.8% FG (54th in Div. I). Kansas State does a terrific job of making teams run a patient, half-court offense, something that Kentucky has had major problems with this season. Kansas State has also shown that it can compete with some of the best teams in the country, with six victories against Top 25 teams on its resume, but it is just 6-7 SU versus the NCAA Tournament field, including 1-5 since upsetting rival Kansas on Feb. 10. Although Kansas State is 11-2 ATS versus poor passing teams (12 or less APG) after 15+ games over the past three seasons, the team is also 10-24 ATS versus good rebounding teams (4+ RPG margin) in this same timeframe.

Can Kentucky hold off a tough Kansas State team on Friday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts opened the NCAA Tournament with a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in First Four games, making them a stellar 60% ATS (278-185-16) in college basketball Best Bets this season. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 23-3-2 (89% ATS) since Feb. 6, 32-6-3 (84% ATS) since Jan. 17, and 74% ATS (57-20-3) since Nov. 26 to give him a robust 70% ATS (64-27-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (41-22-1) since in Best Bets Dec. 18 and 61% ATS (58-37-2) this season, while StatFox Scott is 70% ATS (14-6-2) since Feb. 16 and 59% ATS (54-38-4) for the season. StatFox Gary is 61% ATS (50-32) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 57% ATS (54-40-2) for the season, while StatFox Zach 64% ATS (7-4) since March 2.

Kansas State does not have a potent offense, averaging a mere 69.7 PPG (211th in nation) on 43.6% FG (212th in Div. I), 33.4% threes (222nd in nation) and 65.8% FT (302nd in Div. I). The purple Wildcats do a great job of sharing the ball though, ranking 27th in the country in assists (15.5 APG). SG Marcus Foster (15.6 PPG, 40% threes, 3.2 RPG) was not highly recruited out of high school, but has been one of the most consistent freshmen in the country. He has thrived in Bruce Weber’s offense with 25.0 PPG on 61% FG (10-of-15 threes) in his past two contests, showing he can score in the paint as well as on the perimeter. PF Thomas Gipson (11.8 PPG on 56% FG, 6.5 RPG) will need to have a big game for Kansas State to have a chance to win. Kentucky enters the tournament ranked fifth in the country in rebounding (41.3 RPG), while Kansas State is ranked 110th in the nation at 36.0 RPG. With SF Shane Southwell (9.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.8 APG) and SG Will Spradling (7.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.9 APG), K-State has two well-rounded and heady seniors that have played in multiple NCAA Tournament games in their careers. They have to be the leaders on the team, and help the club play its style of game. Freshman swingman Wesley Iwundu (6.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG) is another solid role player for Kansas State, knocking down 41.2% threes this season. If the Wildcats can remain disciplined, the team has a chance to hang with Kentucky. However, the club must get off to a fast start, because John Calipari’s team becomes scary if it gets rolling early and builds up confidence.

The blue and white Wildcats have been solid scoring the ball (76.4 PPG, 46th in nation), but don't shoot particularly well (45.4% FG, 115th in Div. I), and are ranked very low (260th) in assists with just 11.6 APG. They have so much talent, but can get into trouble when they start trying to make the plays as individuals rather than working as a team. Kentucky is led by freshman PF Julius Randle (15.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG), who has nine double-doubles in his past 11 games, but was held to four points (1-of-7 FG) and seven rebounds in Sunday's SEC Tournament loss to Florida. Randle is developing a mid-range jump shot, which makes it even more difficult for defenses to try to slow him down. He is at his best when he is able to go to his left, and despite being a freshman, very few players can match Randle's physicality in the paint. Another freshman, swingman James Young (14.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG) is kind of the wild card on this team. Young can catch fire from the three-point line on any given night, but can also be non-existent from the field as well. He enters the NCAAs on a bit of a hot streak though with 13+ points in each of his past four contests, averaging 15.5 PPG (9-of-19 threes) and 4.0 RPG during this four-game stretch. SG Aaron Harrison (13.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.1 APG) and his twin brother PG Andrew Harrison (10.8 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.1 RPG) are both very talented players that must not try and do too much themselves. The duo combined to shoot a putrid 7-of-22 FG (32%) in the loss to Florida with just as many turnovers as assists (four each). Seven-foot C Willie Cauley-Stein (7.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.0 BPG) is not going to get a lot of plays called for him, but does a great job of giving maximum effort. He is a terrific shot blocker (11 blocks over three SEC Tournament games), who uses his tremendous size and length to make things very difficult for opponents at the rim. Cauley-Stein is at his best when he is able to play weak side, allowing Randle to do more of the battling in the paint. Kentucky has shot only 32.5% from the three-point line this season (266th in nation), so look for Kansas State to help out more on Randle and force Kentucky to beat them from the perimeter.