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Streaking Grizzlies head to Miami on Friday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/21/2014  at  5:42:00 AM
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MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (40-27)

at MIAMI HEAT (46-20)

Tip-off: Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -5, Total: 191

The red-hot Grizzlies head to South Beach on Friday night to take on a struggling Heat team.

Memphis has won eight of its past 10 games (6-4 ATS), including two in a row by double-digits. The Grizzlies' most recent win was a 96-86 home victory against the Jazz on Wednesday. They have allowed just 81.5 PPG over the past two contests. Miami, on the other hand, has lost six of its past nine games (2-7 ATS), including a 101-96 road defeat in Boston on Wednesday night. Luckily for the Heat, they should get SF LeBron James (back) for this game. The Heat and Grizzlies have not met since March 1, 2013 when Miami won 98-91 at home, but failed to cover a 7.5-point spread. Over the past three seasons, the Heat are 2-1 SU in this series, but Memphis is 3-0 ATS. Over the past three seasons, the Grizzlies have gone 22-10 ATS after four or more consecutive Unders. The Heat, however, are 13-4 ATS over the past three seasons after failing to cover in six or seven of their previous eight games.

Can the Heat get back in the win column versus the surging Grizzlies? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The experts have been surging recently with a 58% ATS mark (25-18) since March 9. StatFox Dave has a strong 56% ATS (44-34-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1, while StatFox Brian remains red-hot, going 61% ATS (25-16-1) since Jan. 25 and 57% ATS (39-30-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 12. StatFox Gary is also heating up with a 61% ATS mark (14-9) since Feb. 13, while StatFox Zach is on a 7-1 ATS run since March 9.

Although Memphis is offensively-challenged (95.9 PPG, 25th in NBA), the team has one of the best defenses in the league with 94.4 PPG allowed (3rd in NBA). The club is also a strong rebounding team with a +2.7 RPG margin, which is a big advantage in this matchup. PF Zach Randolph (17.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG) led the way for Memphis in Wednesday's victory, finishing with 21 points (8-of-16 FG), 11 rebounds and three assists. PG Mike Conley (17.1 PPG, 6.0 APG) had 18 points and seven assists in the win over Utah, and is averaging 16.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG and 4.4 APG over the past five games. He is also coming away with 1.6 SPG over that period, and he should really be able to disrupt the Heat guards with his speed on both ends of the floor. C Marc Gasol (13.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.5 BPG) had 20 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks against the Jazz to give him 14.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.0 APG and 2.4 BPG over the past five contests. When Greg Oden is not on the floor for Miami, Gasol should be able to use his size to really dominate the paint and give the Grizzlies a huge advantage. SG Courtney Lee (9.9 PPG) could be an X-factor in this game, as he is averaging 12.1 PPG with Memphis this season, but just 7.0 PPG over the past two games.

Miami has been strong on both ends of the court this season, scoring 103.9 PPG (9th in NBA) on 23.1 APG (9th in league), while allowing just 98.7 PPG (7th in NBA). But the Heat are a horrendous rebounding team, whose minus-4.2 RPG margin ranks third-worst in the NBA. They are coming off of a 101-96 loss in Boston on Wednesday in which SG Dwyane Wade (19.4 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.7 RPG) led the team in scoring with 17 points (7-of-17 FG). Wade may need to be just as aggressive in this matchup with the Grizzlies due to the fragile state of SF LeBron James (27.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.4 APG). James sat out of the loss against the Celtics with an injured back, and if it is still sore, the reigning MVP may not be as willing to go to the basket. He did, however, have 43 points (14-of-19 FG, 6-of-8 threes) on Tuesday versus the Cavaliers. C Greg Oden (2.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG) sat out in the loss to Boston as well. His minutes will be very crucial to the Heat in this matchup, as the Grizzlies play through Marc Gasol. In the win over the Cavaliers on Tuesday, Oden had six points, three rebounds and two blocks in 14 minutes. He doesn’t play much for Miami, but he is one of the best defenders in the league at his position, and any minutes they get out of him are beneficial. PF Chris Bosh (16.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) struggled against the Celtics with just six points (3-of-11 FG), and he will need to play much better on Friday, as his matchup with Zach Randolph could decide who wins this game.


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