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Arizona favored big over SDSU in Thursday's Sweet 16
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Published: 3/27/2014  at  3:35:00 AM
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SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (31-4)

vs. ARIZONA WILDCATS (32-4)

NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
Honda Center - Anaheim, CA
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:15 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona -7, Total: 122

San Diego State looks to exact some revenge for a regular-season loss as it takes on top-seeded Arizona in Thursday's Sweet 16.

Here is the Bet DSI breakdown on the entire Sweet 16:

The Aztecs have lost to only three teams this season, but one of those defeats came in the second game of the season at home against the Wildcats, who prevailed 69-60. In that game, San Diego State was down by 14 points early, but managed to get back within four points in the final minutes before losing. Arizona now holds a commanding 7-2 SU advantage in this series since 2002, but is only 4-5 ATS in these contests. SG Xavier Thames had a team-high-tying 19 points in that Nov. 14 loss, and he is coming off a game in which he scored 30 points in the third round victory against North Dakota State. However, it was the defense of the Aztecs that stepped up in the victory against the Bison, limiting them to 44 points on 31.9% shooting from the field. They are now 19-13 ATS overall, including 7-4 ATS in non-conference games and 5-2 ATS on a neutral court. The Wildcats are also coming off a dominating performance when they crushed Gonzaga 84-61. Arizona used its terrific defense to force 21 turnovers, turning those into easy points (49.2% FG), and improving to 21-14 ATS overall, including 10-4 ATS in non-conference games and 4-3 ATS on a neutral court. The Wildcats struggle to score at times, but are absolutely lethal in the transition game. If San Diego State wants to win this game, it will have to limit turnovers. Both teams have favorable coaching trends for this contest, as Steve Fisher is 64-29 ATS (69%) after a win by 15+ points as the coach of San Diego State, while Sean Miller is 14-3 ATS (82%) in non-home games versus top-level teams (80%+ win pct.) as Arizona's head coach.

Can San Diego State get its revenge on Thursday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts opened the NCAA Tournament with a sizzling 62% ATS mark (46-28-1) through the Round of 32, making them a stellar 60% ATS (322-218-17) in college basketball Best Bets this season. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 33-9-2 (79% ATS) since Feb. 6 and 42-12-3 (78% ATS) since Jan. 17, to give him a robust 69% ATS (74-33-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is a phenomenal 80% ATS (12-3) in Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament, making him 66% ATS (51-26-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 18 and 62% ATS (68-41-2) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 64% ATS (9-5-1) in Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament, 66% ATS (23-12-3) since Feb. 16 and 59% ATS (63-44-5) for the season. StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (58-40) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 56% ATS (62-48-2) for the season.

San Diego State comes into this game ranked 43rd in the nation in rebounding (37.8 RPG), so it has the ability to battle down low with the Wildcats. Arizona’s defense is terrific, and the Aztecs have a tendency to play one-on-on style basketball, ranking 329th in Division-I in assists (10.2 APG), while shooting a subpar 43.7% from the field (202nd in nation). They have to move the ball, because if they don’t, Arizona has the ability to flat shut out an opponent. It should come as no surprise of the strong play of SG Xavier Thames (17.4 PPG, 3.3 APG), as the senior has been terrific this season. He has been great during his time as an Aztec, but he is playing on a complete different level as of late, averaging 26.5 PPG and 5.0 APG in the NCAA Tournament. With the Wildcats' ability to shut the opposing team’s offense down, it will be key that Thames can continue to produce points like he's done all month with at least 15 points in all eight March games. However, the wild card on this team is SF Winston Shepard (11.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.1 APG), whose supreme athleticism can influence a game in so many different ways. Shepard can be out of control at times, but is at his best when the Aztecs are in the open court, as he can handle the ball at 6-foot-8. If he is on his "A" game, then San Diego State becomes a nightmare to stop on the offensive end, but Shepard has just 5.0 PPG on 4-of-17 FG so far in the NCAA Tournament. PF Josh Davis (7.7 PPG. 9.9 RPG, 1.1 SPG) and SF JJ O’Brien (7.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG) both play a big role on the defensive end for the Aztecs. While they are not extremely tall (6-foot-8 and 6-foot-7, respectively), they do a great job of battling and use their athleticism to matchup with opposing forwards. The Aztecs have terrific length at every position, making it very difficult for opponents to pass the ball. They allow a mere 56.6 PPG (2nd in nation), thanks to a healthy 7.9 SPG (23rd in Div. I) and 5.2 BPG (32nd in nation), and have the ability to give Arizona major problems on Thursday night.

The Wildcats come into this game ranked 113th in the nation in scoring (73.1 PPG), but they are very efficient with 15.1 APG (41st in Div. I), leading to a 46.8% FG clip (50th in nation). That great shooting percentage is a bit skewed because of their ability to get easy baskets, but in their four losses this season, the team has made only 38.9% FG. But they don't have to score a whole lot considering how suffocating their defense has been this season, allowing only 58.3 PPG (5th in Div. I) on a mere 38.0% FG (also 5th in nation). Arizona does not have a ton of terrific offensive players, so a lot of its points come from its defense. SG Nick Johnson (16.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG) is the leader of this team, and is off to a great start in the NCAA Tournament with 17.5 PPG (6-of-10 threes), 3.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG and 2.0 BPG. He has the ability to score the ball, but is as good of on ball defender as there is in the country. When he is able to apply pressure, good things happen for Arizona. When Johnson and freshman PF Aaron Gordon (12.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG) are running the floor with heady PG T.J. McConnell (8.4 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.6 RPG), the team is nearly impossible to stop. Gordon has a robust 17.0 PPG (15-21 FG, 71%), 7.0 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.5 BPG and 2.0 SPG in the NCAAs. In the win against San Diego State earlier this season, Johnson scored 23 points while Gordon had 16 points and eight rebounds. Like the Aztecs, the Wildcats are a great rebounding team, ranking 18th in the country on the glass (38.9 RPG). Both C Kaleb Tarczewski (10.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and SF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (8.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG) do a great job of helping out Gordon on the glass. Both teams have the athletes to get out and run in the open court, but if it turns into that style of game, the Wildcats will be in a great position to get the victory.


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