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Cinderellas Dayton and Stanford collide on Thursday
By: Robert Livingston - StatFox
Published: 3/27/2014  at  4:34:00 AM
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DAYTON FLYERS (25-10)

vs. STANFORD CARDINAL (23-12)

NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
FedEx Forum - Memphis, TN
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -3, Total: 133.5

After pulling off upsets in two consecutive rounds, either 10-seed Stanford and 11-seed Dayton will see their Cinderella run continue as the two meet in the South Region semifinals on Thursday night.

Here is the Bet DSI breakdown on the entire Sweet 16:

Stanford first took down New Mexico in the Round of 64 and then shocked No. 2 seed Kansas 60-57 to reach the Sweet 16. The Cardinalís defense gave up 55.0 PPG in those two contests, improving the team to 19-12-2 ATS this season. They are 3-3-2 ATS on neutral courts and 8-3-1 ATS (11-3 SU) against non-conference opponents. Dayton reached the Sweet 16 with wins against sixth-seeded Ohio State and No. 3 seed Syracuse, and has now covered in six of its past seven contests. The Flyers are 19-12 ATS overall and 6-2 (SU and ATS) on neutral courts this season, and are an impressive 10-3 ATS against non-conference foes and 7-3 (SU and ATS) as underdogs. Like Stanford, Dayton has played ultra-stingy defense so far in the Big Dance, yielding just 56.0 PPG through their first two games. Both teams have positive betting trends for this contest, as the Flyers are 28-12 ATS versus good defensive teams (42% FG or less allowed) under head coach Archie Miller, while Stanford is 11-3 ATS after 15+ games this season versus teams who average 6 or fewer SPG.

Which double-digit seed will prevail in this Sweet 16 matchup? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The StatFox Experts opened the NCAA Tournament with a sizzling 62% ATS mark (46-28-1) through the Round of 32, making them a stellar 60% ATS (322-218-17) in college basketball Best Bets this season. StatFox Brian is on an amazing Best Bets run of 33-9-2 (79% ATS) since Feb. 6 and 42-12-3 (78% ATS) since Jan. 17, to give him a robust 69% ATS (74-33-4) record in Best Bets for the season. StatFox Dave is a phenomenal 80% ATS (12-3) in Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament, making him 66% ATS (51-26-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 18 and 62% ATS (68-41-2) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 64% ATS (9-5-1) in Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament, 66% ATS (23-12-3) since Feb. 16 and 59% ATS (63-44-5) for the season. StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (58-40) on Best Bets since Nov. 22 and 56% ATS (62-48-2) for the season.

Daytonís defensive performance thus far contrasts its inconsistent play during the season, giving up 67.0 PPG (91st in Div. I) on 43.9% shooting this season. The team does have great potential on the offensive end, however, with 73.4 PPG (98th in Div. I) on 46.6% shooting (60th in Div. I). No Flyers player averages more than 12.5 PPG, led by junior SG Jordan Sibert (12.4 PPG), who is knocking down an impressive 43% of his threes this year. He is just 4-of-13 from deep so far in the Big Dance though, averaging 9.5 PPG in the two contests. Six-foot-7 senior PF Devin Oliver (11.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.4 APG) is the teamís top rebounder and passer, helping Sibert threaten from the perimeter with 1.1 threes per game. Sophomore SF Dyshawn Pierre (11.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is also a solid shooter (40% threes) and rounds out the teamís double-digit scorers. Heís averaging 13.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG so far in the NCAAs. SGs Vee Sanford (9.9 PPG) and Khari Price (6.5 PPG) join Sibert in the backcourt for this team that regularly plays 11 men.

Stanfordís defensive performance has been a big step up from its play all season, where it has allowed opponents to score 67.9 PPG (114th in nation) and 34.9% threes, but has limited teams to a mere 41.9% FG overall thanks to a strong 4.2 BPG (100th in Div. I). The offense is very similar to Daytonís scoring 73.5 PPG (94th in Div. I) on 46.4% shooting (69th in Div. I). Unlike the Flyers, however, they have a clear top scorer in SG Chasson Randle (18.9 PPG), who is hitting 40.1% threes this season. He turned it over a whopping seven times against Kansas in Sunday's win, but swiped six steals and was a big reason why the Jayhawks shot 32.8% FG and 31.3% threes in the game. Swingman Anthony Brown (12.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and PF Josh Huestis (11.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG) both have size but the ability to shoot from all over the court, helping create space for Randle on the perimeter. Senior SF Dwight Powell (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) joins Huestis down low and rounds out the crew of double-digit scorers, all of whom average 30+ minutes per game. Junior C Stefan Nastic (7.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG) is also an important asset in the post, as he has shown this tournament, averaging 10.0 PPG on 82% shooting through the first two games.

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