StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Red Sox, Orioles play rubber match Thursday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 4/3/2014  at  4:06:00 AM
  Print This Article    

BOSTON RED SOX (1-1)

at BALTIMORE ORIOLES (1-1)

First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Baltimore -120, Boston +110, Total: 9

The defending World Series champion Red Sox try to win their first series of the 2014 season on Thursday after splitting the first two games against the Orioles.

The AL East figures to be a tough division to win this season, and both Boston and Baltimore are certainly in the conversation to make a run at it. The Red Sox scored just one run on nine hits while leaving 12 men on base in a 2-1 loss in Tuesday's opener, but shook off those offensive cobwebs on Wednesday with 10 hits, including two-run homers from both David Ortiz and Mike Napoli in a 6-2 victory. The Orioles have scored just four runs on 12 hits in the two games combined, with newly-signed OF Nelson Cruz homering in both games and contributing three of the runs and three of the RBI's. For the rubber-match, the Sox will give the ball to LHP Felix Doubront (11-6, 4.32 ERA in 2013) to earn the win and he will hope to replicate the great outing that John Lackey put together on Wednesday (6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 6 K's). The Orioles will be sending LHP Wei-Yin Chen (7-7, 4.07 ERA in 2013) to the bump, as the 28-year old looks to have a solid season after knee surgery in October. Baltimore has dominated this series recently, owning a commanding 25-13 (.658) edge against Boston over the past three seasons, including 13-7 at home over that time. The Orioles did well overall when playing at home last season as well, compiling a 46-35 record (.568) in front of their fans, but will certainly have their work cut out for them as Boston was 44-37 (.543) on the road which tied for the best record in the AL last year.

Felix Doubront really struggled this Spring Training with a 7.11 ERA (1.95 WHIP) over 19 innings, but was able to strike out 21 batters in that time (9.9 K/9). Even with those poor numbers, he has proven to the Red Sox that he has the ability to be a quality pitcher in the big leagues and showed improvement from 2012 to 2013. He should also feel somewhat comfortable against the Orioles as he has started five games against them in his career, and is only 1-2 despite pitching to a 3.16 ERA (1.05 WHIP). His last outing against them was his best, going 6.2 strong innings while allowing 2 ER and 4 hits and striking out seven. Hot-hitting OF Nelson Cruz (3-for-6, 2 walks) and 1B Chris Davis (6-for-15, 1 HR, 3 RBI) have each had no trouble getting to the lefty while C Matt Wieters (1-for-16, 10 K) has been horrendous in this matchup. The Red Sox bullpen had a 3.70 ERA last season while going 30-23 and converted only 33-of-57 saves (58%). They have started out strong already this year, pitching four scoreless innings while giving up only three hits and striking out four. Closer Koji Uehara (1.09 ERA, 21 saves in 2013) converted 88% of his save opportunities last year and looked good Wednesday in a non-save chance, allowing one hit and striking out one in the ninth inning.

The Orioles had a lot of high expectations for Wei-Yin Chen when they signed him out of Taiwan, but he has yet to live up to them after two years of an ERA above 4.00. He did not prove to be much better this spring either, tallying a 6.39 ERA (1.66 WHIP) while giving up three home runs in just 12.2 innings. Chen has really struggled against Boston over seven career starts as well, going 2-2 with a 5.08 ERA (1.64 WHIP) while the team is 5-2. His past two starts against them have been nearly identical, as he has pitched 5+ innings (5.1 and 5.2) while allowing three runs and striking out five in each contest. The team also won both games with Chen getting a no-decision. His biggest challenges in the Red Sox lineup have come from 2B Dustin Pedroia (11-for-19, 4 XBH, 4 RBI) and OF Daniel Nava (5-for-8, 1 HR, 3 RBI) while the only key player that he has had success against is DH David Ortiz (2-for-10, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3 K's). Baltimore’s bullpen had a slightly better ERA (3.52) than the Red Sox last season and led the league with 57 saves while blowing 27 opportunities (68%). The O's allowed their first runs from a relief pitcher on Wednesday when Ryan Webb gave up two runs in the seventh inning. The bullpen has combined to pitch seven innings over the first two games of the year, giving up two runs on seven hits while striking out just three and walking three. Tommy Hunter (6-5, 2.81 ERA in 2013) earned the closer role for this season and grabbed his first save on Tuesday, allowing just one hit while striking out a batter.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: