StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Desperate Grizzlies favored big over Nuggets Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/4/2014  at  6:18:00 AM
  Print This Article    

DENVER NUGGETS (33-42)

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (44-31)

Tip-off: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -9, Total: 200.5

The Grizzlies host the Nuggets Friday night in a must-win game if they want to be a part of postseason basketball.

Denver snapped a four-game losing skid on Wednesday with a dominating 137-107 victory over the Pelicans. The team is now 9-3 ATS in its past dozen games. Memphis, on the other hand, has hit a real slump at the wrong time of the season, dropping three of the final four games on a just-completed road trip when it fell 102-88 to the Timberwolves on Wednesday night. That puts the team in a tie for eighth-place with Phoenix, and one-half game behind seventh-place Dallas. The Grizzlies are happy to return home where they are 23-14 SU this season, but just 16-21 ATS. The Nuggets have a poor 13-24 SU mark on the road, but are an even 18-18 ATS away from home. These clubs are wrapping up their season series on Friday with Memphis holding a 2-1 advantage (SU and ATS). The Grizzlies won 94-92 in the most recent meeting in Denver on Monday, but failed to cover the 4.5-point spread. Over the past three seasons, Memphis is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) when hosting the Nuggets. Denver is 27-15 ATS (64%) after a double-digit win over the past two seasons, and is going up against a Memphis team that is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road favorite this season. However, the Grizzlies are 32-19 ATS (63%) after two or more consecutive Unders over the past two seasons. There are no new injuries to report for either team, as Nuggets SF Wilson Chandler (hip) remains out indefinitely.

Can the Grizzlies keep their playoff hopes alive with a double-digit victory on Friday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. StatFox Zach is a stellar 72% ATS (13-5) since March 9, while StatFox Gary has remained hot with a 61% ATS mark (20-13) since Feb. 13. StatFox Dave has a strong 56% ATS (49-39-1) Best Bets record since Dec. 1, while StatFox Brian also remains profitable, going 53.1% ATS (26-23-1) since Jan. 25.

The Nuggets continue to thrive on the offensive end of the court with 104.0 PPG (9th in NBA), thanks to 22.3 APG (12th in league), but they have allowed the third-most points in the NBA at 106.2 PPG. They were able to blow out New Orleans last game behind 34 points and 13 rebounds from PF Kenneth Faried (13.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG). Over the past five games, Faried is averaging 20.8 PPG and 11.0 RPG. He had 17 points (6-of-14 FG) and eight rebounds in the most recent matchup with the Grizzlies. One player who really stepped his game in Monday's meeting was C Timofey Mozgov (8.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.2 BPG). The Nuggets needed somebody to match up with Marc Gasol and Mozgov delivered with 23 points and 10 rebounds in 32 minutes. They will need him to bring the same aggressiveness on Friday if they are going to keep this score close. PG Ty Lawson (17.6 PPG, 8.9 APG, 1.6 SPG) was never able to get it going in his matchup against Mike Conley earlier this week, finishing with just eight points (3-of-9 FG) in 40 minutes, but he still has a well-rounded 15.3 PPG (49% FG), 8.7 APG, 4.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG in the season series. One player who will really need to be on his game for the Nuggets is SG Randy Foye (12.4 PPG). Foye had nine points and seven assists in the win over the Pelicans and 13 points and nine rebounds against the Grizzlies on Monday. His shooting will be needed against Memphis, but he has been terrible on the road recently with just 8.7 PPG on 35% FG in his past six games outside of Denver.

The Grizzlies cannot match their opponent's offensive firepower with just 95.5 PPG (26th in NBA), but they are much better on the defensive end of the court with just 94.2 PPG allowed. They are coming off of a bad loss on the road to the Timberwolves, and are now in serious danger of missing out on the playoffs. PF Zach Randolph (17.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG) really struggled in the game with just four points (1-of-8 FG) in 27 minutes. He did have 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Nuggets on Monday, so he should do better with a more favorable matchup. C Marc Gasol (14.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) had 18 points, seven rebounds and four assists in the loss to Minnesota. He was one of the only Grizzlies players to come prepared and he will look to carry his solid play into the game on Friday. Gasol had 13 points and eight rebounds in the win over the Nuggets on Monday, but he really struggled defensively with Timofey Mozgov. PG Mike Conley (17.1 PPG, 6.0 APG) had 19 points in the win over Denver on Monday. He will need to play the same type of defense that caused Ty Lawson nightmares if the Grizzlies are going to come away with a much-needed victory. SG Courtney Lee (9.7 PPG) is averaging 16.5 PPG over the past two contests. If he is shooting well, he could really provide the Grizzlies with the spark they need to win this game.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: