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Reds, Cardinals continue series Tuesday night
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 4/8/2014  at  4:39:00 AM
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CINCINNATI REDS (2-5)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (4-3)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -135, Cincinnati +125, Total: 7

An important early season NL Central battle continues on Tuesday night as the Reds take on the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

Cincinnati was picked by many to grab one of the Wild Card spots this season, but has not done much to live up to the hype thus far. The team has lost 2-of-3 in each of its first two series, and was defeated by St. Louis by a score of 5-3 in the first game of this three-game set on Monday. The main problem that the Reds have had this year is putting runs on the board, as they have averaged just 2.6 runs per game, including only 2.5 runs per game in the four contests when facing the Redbirds. Speaking of the Cardinals, they have flip-flopped between wins and losses through their first seven games while losing their last series to the Pirates. Their pitching staff has been solid for the most part though, and has allowed three or fewer runs in 5-of-7 games. Cincy's Tuesday starter RHP Homer Bailey (0-1, 8.31 ERA) was handed a large six-year, $105 million contract extension in the offseason but pitched very poorly the first time he faced St. Louis this season (4.1 IP, 4 ER). For the home team, RHP Lance Lynn (1-0, 5.40 ERA) will take the mound and he is coming off a lucky victory in an uninspiring performance in this same pitching matchup last Thursday. The Cardinals have had the advantage in this series going back two seasons with a record of 22-16, while holding a commanding 11-5 edge in games played in front of their fans.

Homer Bailey had a rocky start to his career, but seemed to put it all together in the past two seasons, going 24-22 with a 3.58 ERA, while posting a career-high 8.6 K/9 last year. Those numbers earned him his large extension, but put him under the spotlight to live up to the money. In his first start, he took on this same Redbirds lineup, and did not fare well, allowing seven hits and four runs in 4.1 innings while striking out three and walking three batters. He also allowed a two-out, two-run homer to Jhonny Peralta in the second inning. Before that start, Bailey had actually been spectacular in his previous two outings against the Cardinals, pitching 14.1 scoreless frames while giving up only seven hits, striking out 15 batters (3 walks) and getting two wins. Overall in his 18 starts in this matchup, he is 5-10 (5-13 team record) with a 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Three of St. Louis’ top hitters, 2B Matt Carpenter (11-for-19, 2 doubles), OF Matt Holliday (13-for-37, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 10 K’s) and C Yadier Molina (8-for-27, 2 HR), have teed off when facing the 27-year-old righty. Meanwhile, 1B Allen Craig, who is only 3-for-26 (.115) so far this season, has gone just 2-for-12 (.167, 4 K’s) in this matchup. The bullpen for the Reds has also been a problem, pitching to a 4.76 ERA over 17 innings, including two runs allowed in Monday night’s contest, which was the difference in the 5-3 final score. They are expecting Jonathan Broxton to make his return from an early season forearm injury and he will be plugged in as the closer until Aroldis Chapman returns from his head injury. Broxton has saved 111 games in 153 chances (73%) over his career, but struggled in 2013 with a 4.11 ERA in 34 appearances (30.2 IP).

Lance Lynn is yet another polished product that the Cardinals have produced out of their exemplary farm system. He has been a full-time starter for them in each of the past two years and has posted ERAs below 4.00 each time with a combined 33-17 record (.660). He received a lucky win in his first start of the year though, pitching just five innings while allowing three runs on eight hits (2 HR) and striking out seven. The victory brought his record to 4-1 (4.38 ERA) over his seven career starts against the Reds, while his team has posted an impressive 6-1 mark in those contests. The three players that have haunted him the most in those games were OF Jay Bruce (7-for-16, 2 HR, 6 RBI), SS Zack Cozart (6-for-20, 2 HR) and 1B Joey Votto (6-for-14, 5 walks). The Cardinals' bullpen, which is usually one of the strongest in the league, has not been able to put it together so far on the year, and the two runs it allowed on Monday night has brought its ERA to a bloated 6.50 with only 13 strikeouts compared to nine walks in 18 innings. The two runs given up came when closer Trevor Rosenthal (5.40 ERA, 2 saves) entered the game in a non-save situation. He has been successful in his first two save opportunities though, not allowing a hit or run while striking out three in 2.1 frames of work, which both came in the first series against the Reds.


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