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Blue Jays try to outslug Astros on Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 4/9/2014  at  4:02:00 AM
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HOUSTON ASTROS (3-5)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (4-4)

First pitch: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Toronto -195, Houston +182, Total: 9

The Blue Jays look to go over the .500 mark in the early going when they head into game two of their series against the Astros on Wednesday night.

Houston started the season off with two wins against the Yankees, and then proceeded to fall back into typical form by losing five of its next six games. In each of its past four losses, the pitching staff has really struggled, allowing opponents to score an average of 7.5 runs per game. The Astros gave up only five hits in this series opener on Tuesday, but four of them went for extra-bases, including two home runs, and they also gave away six free passes. It also did not help that they went 0-for-14 with runners in scoring position during the 5-2 loss. With the victory, Toronto pushed its record to .500 in the young season and can thank Mark Buehrle for two of those wins. He pitched another strong game on Tuesday, earning his second win while giving up just one run in 14 frames this year. OF Jose Bautista and OF Melky Cabrera both hit their fourth homers of the season in the game. Looking to get Houston back in the win column will be RHP Lucas Harrell (0-1, 15.00 ERA) who was shelled in his season debut by the Angels. Opposing him in this matchup will be RHP Brandon Morrow (0-1, 7.20 ERA) who also struggled in his first start of the season, but has a good matchup as a strikeout pitcher against a team that tends to whiff quite a bit. The win on Tuesday brought the Blue Jays' record to 4-1 at home against the Astros since the beginning of 2012 and they are 5-3 overall in that time. Bettors should take note that Houston has gone 15-11 (.577) when playing on Wednesday since the beginning of last season while Toronto is 19-3 (.864) at home when the total is 9.0 to 9.5 and Morrow is pitching. OF Dexter Fowler (illness) is questionable for the Astros in this game.

Lucas Harrell will get his second start of the 2014 season on Wednesday night and he certainly hopes to pitch much better than he did in his season debut last Friday. Harrell made it through only three innings while allowing seven hits and five runs against the Angels. He got into trouble early as he gave up a monster solo shot off the bat of Mike Trout in the first inning. Harrell also really had his troubles last year, pitching to a 5.86 ERA in 36 games (22 starts) while seeing his K/9 rate drop to a poor 5.2. This start will be Harrell’s first against the Blue Jays, but he could run into trouble as he has done worse against right-handed hitters (.281) than lefties (.262) and will be facing two of the best power hitting right-handers in OF Jose Bautista and 1B Edwin Encarnacion. He does not have much experience against any of the Blue Jays hitters, but when he has seen them, they have had success. Of the players on their roster that have at-bats against him, they have combined to go 12-for-24 with three doubles and 6 RBI. Houston’s pitching staff has been atrocious this season and much of the blame can go toward the bullpen which has allowed 20 runs in just 27.1 innings pitched (6.59 ERA) while allowing 35 hits. The Astros do not have a permanent closer on their staff and will play to matchups at the end of games. So far, Chad Qualls (6.75 ERA, 1 save) is the only reliever to earn a save.

Just like Harrell, Brandon Morrow did not perform well in his 2014 debut, allowing seven hits and four runs while striking out four over five innings on the mound. He was also horrible over his 10 starts in 2013, going 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA (1.49 WHIP), so the start last week is not encouraging. Also, like his counterpart in this game, Morrow has not had the luxury of facing the opposing team much, starting only one game against them back in 2011. If it is any consolation for the Astros, Morrow did very poorly in the contest, giving up nine hits and four runs while striking out six (3 walks) in six innings. Morrow will have to be conscious of how well 2B Jose Altuve is doing though, as he is leading the team with nine hits (.310) while walking four times and stealing three bases. He could get plenty of swings-and-misses also, as 1B Chris Carter and OF Robbie Grossman have already combined for 21 K’s in just 52 at-bats. Even with the Blue Jays missing their projected closer right now (Casey Janssen shoulder injury), they have done well with a combined ERA of 3.86 over 28 innings of work while going 3-for-3 in save opportunities. Sergio Santos (3.86 ERA, 2 saves) was forced into the closer role when Janssen hit the DL to start the season, and Santos has been perfect in his first two save tries.


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