Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -12, Total: 214.5

The Nuggets move closer to the end of a very disappointing season when they visit the surging Warriors on Thursday night.

Denver has struggled all season long, but has been in most of its games over the past four weeks with a brilliant 12-3 ATS mark, including five ATS victories in a row. The Nuggets even picked up a rare SU win (2-6 SU in past 8 games) on Wednesday when they beat Houston 123-116 while shooting 50% FG. On the other hand, Golden State has performed well this season, and is finishing strong with a 12-5 SU mark (9-8 ATS) in its past 17 games. They Warriors blew out 12-point underdog Utah on Sunday by a score of 130-102, hitting 57.8% of their shots, which is their second-best mark of the season. Denver has not done well when facing its opponents on the road, putting together a record of 13-26 SU (20-18-1 ATS) this season. Meanwhile, Golden State has been impressive at home, going 26-13 SU (18-19-2 ATS) in front of its fans. These two teams actually face each other twice more before the end of the season, and they have split the first two games (both SU and ATS) with the road team winning each time. The two games have been played very differently as they totaled 170 points in the first game on Dec. 23, a 89-81 Warriors road win, and then the Nuggets won in a high-scoring affair, 123-116, as 9-point underdogs in their most recent matchup on Jan. 15. Over the past three seasons, Golden State owns an 8-7 SU edge in this matchup while going 10-5 ATS. Denver has dealt with injuries all season with C JaVale McGee (tibia), PF Danilo Gallinari (knee), PG Nate Robinson (knee) and PF J.J. Hickson (knee) all done for the season, and are also missing SF Wilson Chandler (hip), with PG Ty Lawson (ankle) doubtful to play. Golden State will miss the services of star PF David Lee (hamstring) who has no timetable for his return.

Can the Warriors win and cover the huge spread over the injury-riddled Nuggets? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2012-13 season. The experts are finishing the regular season strong at 53% ATS (53-47) in NBA Best Bets since March 9. StatFox Zach is a stellar 64% ATS (14-8) in NBA Best Bets since March 9, while StatFox Gary has remained hot with a 58% ATS mark (21-15) in Best Bets since Feb. 13. StatFox Dave has a profitable 55% ATS (50-41-2) NBA Best Bets record since Dec. 1, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (29-25-1) in Best Bets since Jan. 25.

Denver led the NBA in points last season, but injuries derailed the club this season, dropping it to ninth in the league in scoring at 104.4 PPG. The Nuggets have been slightly better over their past five games though, putting up 107.8 PPG. Their defense has been one of the worst this season, and is the third-worst in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing their opponents to post 106.6 PPG. PF Kenneth Faried (13.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG) had his streak of three straight double-doubles snapped in the win on Wednesday night, but still put together a great game of 23 points and nine rebounds. Over eight career contests against the Warriors, he has averaged 10.8 PPG (51% FG) to go along with 9.6 RPG. PG Aaron Brooks (8.9 PPG, 3.1 APG) has been starting with Ty Lawson injured and has averaged 16.4 PPG (47% FG), 6.2 APG, 4.0 RPG and 1.6 SPG over his past five games. He has played 16 career games (6 starts) against Golden State and scored 12.0 PPG (43% FG) while adding 3.9 APG in this matchup. C Timofey Mozgov (8.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.2 BPG) has also seen increased minutes due to injuries, and has 17.6 PPG (57% FG) with 5.6 RPG over his past five contests. In the two games against the Warriors this season, he has averaged 12.0 PPG (61% FG) and 6.5 RPG.

The Warriors have had no trouble scoring all season and are averaging 103.6 PPG (10th in NBA) while making 37.8% of their three-pointers (5th in league). With 105.6 PPG (48% FG) over their past five games, they have done slightly better than their average, and are giving up only 98.2 PPG (44% FG) to their opponents in that time; a very close number to the 98.8 PPG (8th in league) they are giving up this season. PG Stephen Curry (23.5 PPG, 8.5 APG, 1.6 SPG) is coming off a monster game (31 points, 16 assists, 3 steals) while hitting 5-of-10 threes, and has hit 17 from deep over his past five games. He’s actually not done so well against the Nuggets this season, scoring 19.0 PPG (36% FG) while adding 7.0 APG and 4.0 RPG in two meetings. SG Klay Thompson (18.4 PPG, 42% threes) has dropped 22.2 PPG (50% FG) over his past five games and made 7-of-10 threes on Sunday against the Jazz when he scored 33 points. Over nine career games facing the Nuggets, Thompson has netted 17.6 PPG (46% FG) while making 22-of-60 (37%) of his three-pointers. SF Andre Iguodala (9.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG) has been playing limited minutes as he returns from his knee injury, and has 7.5 PPG with 2.5 APG while playing only 19.5 MPG over his past two games. He has struggled against Denver over two contests this season, scoring just 7.5 PPG (35% FG) with 4.0 RPG, 4.0 APG and 1.5 SPG.