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Hawks, Pacers meet again in playoffs on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/19/2014  at  3:48:00 AM
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ATLANTA HAWKS (38-44)

at INDIANA PACERS (56-26)

NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference First Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Indiana -7.5, Total: 187.5

The Pacers worked hard to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and will begin their quest for the franchise's first NBA Championship on Saturday when they host the Hawks.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook breakdown on the series:

Atlanta nearly fell out of the playoff picture with six straight losses from March 21-29, but finished the regular season strong with a 7-3 record (SU and ATS) in its final 10 games to clinch the No. 8 seed. Indiana also struggled late in the season with a 2-7 mark (0-9 ATS) from March 22 to April 6, but won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) to capture the top spot in the East. These two clubs also met in the first round of last year's playoffs in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup, with the Pacers winning the series in six games, including blowout victories in all three home games by 17, 15 and 23 points. But this season, the teams split four games, including the 8-point underdog Hawks rolling to a shocking 107-88 victory at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in the most recent meeting on April 6. While Atlanta shot 56% FG and 44% threes that night, host Indiana managed shooting clips of 41% FG and 25% threes as the game marked the eighth time in the past nine meetings at this venue where the Over occurred. Both teams have favorable betting trends for the series opener, as the Hawks are 27-10 ATS (73%) on the road in the past three seasons after having won three of their past four games, while the Pacers are 43-28 ATS (61%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past two seasons. There are no new injuries for either team, as Atlanta is still without PF Gustavo Ayon (shoulder), while Indiana is still missing C Andrew Bynum (knee).

The Hawks had an extremely up-and-down season, but finished 15th in the league in both scoring (101.0 PPG) and defense (101.5 PPG allowed) and find themselves playing against a Pacers team that they are confident they can defeat. Atlanta's playoff hopes ride on the shoulders of PF Paul Millsap (17.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG), the team’s only All-Star. Millsap has really struggled against the tough frontcourt of the Pacers this season, averaging just 8.8 PPG (31% FG) and 9.3 RPG in four meetings. He will need to find a way to get himself going offensively or the Hawks will struggle to earn even one win in this series. Another player with the capability of helping Atlanta keep this series competitive is PG Jeff Teague (16.5 PPG, 6.7 APG). Teague has been hot in the final five games of the season, averaging 17.6 PPG (52% FG, 43% threes) in just 29.0 MPG, but he hasn't been very effective in this season series with a pedestrian 14.3 PPG (45% FG, 25% threes), 4.3 APG and 3.0 TOPG. SF Kyle Korver (12.0 PPG, 47% 3PT) will need to find some holes in the Pacers defense throughout the course of this playoffs series. Korver was great against the Pacers in the regular season though, averaging 14.0 PPG on a blistering 65% FG (10-of-20 threes) with 4.0 RPG and 3.8 APG in 34.3 MPG. Another key to this series could be C Pero Antic (7.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG) who gave the Pacers fits this season with 17.0 PPG on 72% FG with 5.0 RPG in two meetings.

The Pacers achieved their goal of getting home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs due to an excellent defense (92.3 PPG allowed, 2nd in NBA) and a willingness to get on the glass (+3.5 RPG margin, 3rd in league). This helped make up for a poor offense (96.7 PPG, 24th in NBA) that didn't share the ball very well (20.1 APG, 27th in league). The Pacers will need a big series from Paul George (21.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), who is the team’s only consistent source of offense. Against the Hawks this season, George averaged 22.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 3.3 SPG in 35.8 MPG. If the Pacers are going to advance to the NBA Finals, C Roy Hibbert (10.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.2 BPG) is going to have to wake up. The All-Star averaged just 2.3 PPG and 3.5 RPG in 21.8 MPG over his final four games of the regular season, and didn't do much in the season series versus Atlanta either with a paltry 5.0 PPG on 28% FG and 3.8 RPG in the four meetings. But Hibbert was a huge part of this offense in the playoffs last season with 17.0 PPG and 9.9 RPG, and if he is not playing well, the Pacers will really struggle to move on. The biggest X-factor in this series is going to be SG Lance Stephenson (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.6 APG), who played poorly against the Hawks in the regular season, averaging just 8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 4.0 APG in 29.7 MPG. PG George Hill (10.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.5 APG) has been slumping to finish the season, scoring just 2.7 PPG (3-of-8 FG) in the final three games. He doesn't have to score all that much versus Atlanta, who he averaged 9.0 PPG and 4.3 APG against during the regular season, but he will really need to concentrate on containing Jeff Teague.


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