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Heat favored big over Bobcats Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/20/2014  at  4:05:00 AM
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CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (43-39)

at MIAMI HEAT (54-28)

NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference First Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 3:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -9.5, Total: 189.5

The Heat begin their run towards a three-peat when they host the Bobcats in Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs on Sunday afternoon.

Charlotte made an improbable turnaround in just one season by more than doubling its win total from 21 victories in 2012-13 to 43 this season. The club also enters the postseason having won eight of its past nine games SU (6-3 ATS). Miami, however, is a whole different animal having won the past two NBA championships, but the team has been playing poorly down the stretch with five losses in its final six games (1-4-1 ATS).Although the Bobcats were just 18-23 SU on the road this season, they did post a strong 23-17-1 ATS mark. The Heat were a stellar 32-9 SU at home this season, but were a subpar 18-22-1 ATS in these contests. Miami has thoroughly dominated this series in recent years with 16 straight victories (10-5-1 ATS), including four wins this season, but Charlotte was able to cover in a narrow 99-98 road defeat on Dec. 1. Although the Heat are 17-3 SU in their past 20 games when hosting in this series, the Bobcats are 10-9-1 ATS during this stretch. Both teams have positive betting trends for Sunday, as Charlotte was 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a favorite this season and 28-15 ATS after going Under the total this season. However, Miami is 12-2 ATS off a home loss over the past two seasons and SG Dwyane Wade (hamstring/rest) is going to be fresh after playing just 54 games this season. PF Michael Beasley (ankle) is questionable for the first game of this series after being injured in the team's regular season finale, but C Greg Oden (back) should be able to play on Sunday. There are no significant injuries for Charlotte.

The Bobcats finished the season on a tear and look to carry that momentum into the first round of the playoffs. While this is not a strong offensive team (96.9 PPG, 23rd in NBA), it allows just 97.1 PPG (4th in league). Charlotte also has a slight rebounding advantage in this series with a minus-0.6 RPG margin (19th in NBA), which is better than Miami's minus-3.4 RPG margin (26th in league). The Bobcats' only chance of pulling off a monumental upset over the Heat is if C Al Jefferson (21.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG) plays out of his mind. Jefferson averaged 23.6 PPG and 14.6 RPG over the final five games of the season, and in three games against the Heat, the big man averaged a robust 25.3 PPG and 15.3 RPG. Jefferson will be guarded by much smaller players in this series and will look to use his post game to help Charlotte control the pace. PG Kemba Walker (17.7 PPG, 6.1 APG) averaged 15.5 PPG and 6.0 APG in four games against the Heat this season, and has an extremely winnable matchup with opposing point guard Mario Chalmers in this series. The Bobcats will need Walker to use his speed to get into the lane and create open shots for his teammates while also finishing at the rim himself. SG Gerald Henderson (14.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG) will need to improve his 40% FG clip versus Miami this season that has led to 13.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 3.7 APG. SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (7.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG) could be an X-factor in this series. He is an excellent defender and will see plenty of time trying to stop LeBron James over the next week.

The Heat have their sights set on a third straight NBA title but first they must defeat a pesky Bobcats team. While their rebounding has been a weakness all season, they still limit teams to 97.4 PPG (5th in league) while operating an efficient offense with 102.2 PPG (12th in NBA) and 22.5 APG (11th in league). SF LeBron James (27.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.4 APG) averaged 33.3 PPG over his final three games of the NBA season, and is going to have a major size advantage over whichever forward tries to cover him. He must be aggressive right from the opening tip, which hasn't been a problem this season with his unbelievable 37.8 PPG (63% FG), 6.0 RPG and 5.5 APG in the season series versus Charlotte. SG Dwyane Wade (19.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.5 RPG) has had plenty of time to rest himself for these playoffs and now is the time for him to go as hard as possible on the court. In two games versus Charlotte this season, Wade averaged just 10.5 PPG in 29.0 MPG, and he will need to attack the basket often and play good help defense in order for Miami to quickly wrap up this series. PG Mario Chalmers (9.8 PPG, 4.9 APG) and C Greg Oden (2.9 PPG, 2.3 RPG) will be relied on heavily to defend Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson, respectively. Chalmers will also need to hit open threes when his teammates create for him, and the club needs more offense than his 8.3 PPG (38% FG) he has posted versus the Bobcats this season. PF Chris Bosh (16.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG) has done a nice job in the season series with 17.3 PPG (57% FG) and 6.5 RPG, and remains the team's main frontcourt scorer.


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