NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference First Round
Game 4 - Miami leads series 3-0
Tip-off: Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7.5, Total: 187.5

The Heat look to complete a sweep over the Bobcats on Monday night when the two teams play in Game 4.

Charlotte failed to capitalize on its home-court advantage in Game 3, falling to the Heat 98-85 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Bobcats shot just 41.5% FG, and were outscored by a hefty 40-28 margin in points in the paint. Miami has now 19 straight meetings in this series, going 10-4 ATS in the past three seasons, including 5-1 ATS in Charlotte. Five of those six meetings at Time Warner Cable Arena have gone Under the total. Both teams have positive betting trends for Game 4, as over the past two seasons, the Heat are 15-4 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, and 18-8 ATS (69%) in road games when playing four or less games in 10 days. However, the Bobcats are 27-13 ATS (68%) after an SU loss this season, and 13-4 ATS (77%) at home in the second half of the season. Bobcats star C Al Jefferson (foot) will continue to play despite dealing with a lingering plantar fasciitis issue that has clearly taken its toll on him, but there are no other significant injury concerns for either team.

The Heat had their struggles towards the end of the regular season, going 2-6 SU (2-5-1 ATS) in the final eight games, but they couldn’t have asked for a better confidence booster than this first-round matchup against a beaten-up Bobcats team. SF LeBron James (29.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 5.0 APG this series) has been playing remarkably for the Heat in this series. He has been connecting on his outside jumpers (40% threes this series) while also getting to the foul line for 10.7 attempts per game (78% FT this series). If James is playing this well, it will be difficult for any NBA team to defeat them. SG Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 RPG this series) has played extremely well for the Heat in this series, and he has logged just 34.0 MPG in the three games so far. If Miami is able to pull off the series sweep, then Wade will be extremely well-rested for the next round, and that is exactly what Miami needs in order to continue playing at a high level. The Heat, however, will need to make a concentrated effort to get PF Chris Bosh (13.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG this series) more involved. Bosh averaged 16.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 1.0 BPG during the regular season, and he isn’t getting the touches he is used to. If Bosh is not contributing to the team as a third scoring option or rebounding presence, they will have a difficult time completing the championship three-peat.

Charlotte had hopes of pulling off a massive first-round upset over Miami, but those hopes are now hanging on by a thread. C Al Jefferson (18.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG this series) has put up solid numbers, but he has been playing far from 100 percent as he deals with plantar fasciitis. The big man has had trouble running up and down the court and his movement on both ends has really suffered. This team has enough trouble as is with a talent mismatch, but having its best offensive weapon hobbling up and down the floor gives them little to no margin for error. PG Kemba Walker (16.3 PPG, 6.3 APG this series) had only 13 points and five assists in Game 3, and will need to be a lot more aggressive, as he shot the ball just seven times (4-of-7 FG) on Saturday and posted a game-worst rating of minus-26. With Jefferson injured, a Walker offensive explosion is pretty much the only thing that will keep the Bobcats from getting swept. After a 22-point, 10-rebound performance in Game 2, SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG this series) had just three points (1-of-6 FG, 1-of-4 FT) and five rebounds in Game 3. The Bobcats will need their forward to drive the ball to the hoop and provide them with another source of scoring from the wing. SG Gerald Henderson (9.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG this series) has been invisible in this series after averaging 14.0 PPG during the regular season. Anything he could add at this point would be a plus for Charlotte offensively. Luckily for Charlotte, reserve SG Chris Douglas-Roberts (8.0 PPG on 62% FG in series) has improved his scoring in each game this series, dropping 17 points on 6-of-8 FG (2-of-4 threes) in the Game 3 loss.