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Hawks aim to complete huge upset Thursday vs. Pacers
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 5/1/2014  at  5:14:00 AM
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INDIANA PACERS (58-29)

at ATLANTA HAWKS (41-46)

NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference First Round
Game 6 - Atlanta leads series tied 3-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Indiana -1, Total: 187

The eighth-seeded Hawks will try to finish off the top-seeded Pacers when the teams take the Philips Arena court on Thursday night.

Atlanta put on a shooting clinic in the second quarter of Game 5, knocking down 13-of-16 FG (82%) and 9-of-11 threes to outscore host Indiana by a 41-19 margin in those 12 minutes. Reserve PF Mike Scott was a perfect 6-for-6 from the floor during that decisive quarter when he drained all five of his three-point attempts. The Pacers did make a game of it after trailing by 30 points in the third quarter, finishing on a 47-27 run, but they are now on the brink of playoff elimination to a team that was 38-44 SU during the regular season. Indiana has been a mediocre road club this season at 22-21 SU (18-25 ATS), and has been atrocious at Philips Arena since 1997, going 3-15 SU (5-13 ATS). But all three of those wins have come in the past five meetings, including two playoff games on the Hawks' home court. Atlanta has not been a great home team this season at 25-17 SU and 22-20 ATS, but the club has been rolling all month with a 9-5 SU record (10-4 ATS) in April, and is 12-4 ATS (75%) after a double-digit win this season. But not all is hopeless for the Pacers who are 14-7-1 ATS (67%) with at least two days' rest this season, and are 32-15 ATS (68%) after two straight games of making at least nine three-pointers since 1996. There are no new injury concerns for either club.

Indiana's offense has managed just 93.4 PPG on 45.0% FG in this series, but it has shot an excellent 40.5% threes, including 23-of-53 (43.4%) over the past two games. Turnovers have been somewhat problematic (14.6 TOPG), but the Pacers hold a +4.0 RPG margin and have 22.6 APG compared to just 17.6 APG for Atlanta. But they haven't been aggressive enough in taking the ball to the hole, averaging only 20.6 FTA per game, compared to 26.2 FTA per game for the Hawks. Indiana continues to lean on SF Paul George (22.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 5.2 APG, 2.8 SPG in series) who has thoroughly dominated this series in every facet. He's actually shooting much better from three-point range at 52% (17-of-33), then he is from inside the arc (44%) in this series, and George exploded in Game 5 for 26 points (4-of-7 threes), 12 rebounds, six assists, six steals and a +6 rating. SG Lance Stephenson (13.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.2 SPG in series) has been up and down with his offense in this postseason, scoring 19, 7, 21, 5 and 16 points on Monday. The strange thing is that Stephenson's double-digit outputs have all come during losses, and his single-digit points were the two victories. PF David West (13.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.8 APG in series) and PG George Hill (12.4 PPG, 4.0 APG in series) both matched Stephenson's 16 points in Game 5 and also combined for 12 assists and just four turnovers. But while West finished the game with a +1 rating, Hill's rating was a game-worst minus-18. But the biggest disappointment this series continues to be the lackluster play of All-Star C Roy Hibbert (4.8 PPG on 31% FG, 3.4 RPG in series). He continued his miserable series on Monday with zero points, zero rebounds and four fouls in his 12 minutes of action. As long as he stays in this funk, Indiana is a very beatable team. Helping pick up the slack for the slumping Hibbert has been reserve PF Luis Scola (9.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG in series), but he was also awful in Game 5 with two points, zero boards and a minus-16 rating in just eight minutes of action. Two reserves that did play well on Monday were PG C.J. Watson (8.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG in series), who had 15 points on 6-of-10 FG, and SF Chris Copeland (3.3 PPG, 1.0 BPG in series) who shined defensively with three blocks and produced a team-high +17 rating.

The Hawks' offense was clicking in all areas for Game 5, with 50% FG, 56% threes (15-of-27) and 26-of-33 FT. This was quite an improvement from Game 4 when they made only 35.7% FG, 35.5% threes and attempted 17 free throws. Atlanta was also limited to just six fast-break points in Game 4, but cranked out 17 fast-break points on Monday. Although Indiana held a significant points-in-paint advantage (36-22) in Game 5, the Hawks corralled more rebounds (38-35). PF Paul Millsap (21.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.0 BPG in series) grabbed eight of those boards to go along with 18 points and four blocks. The Pacers have had no answer for the undersized power forward this series and Millsap scored 29 points the last time these teams met in Atlanta for Game 4. PG Jeff Teague (18.0 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.0 RPG in series) has also had an excellent series, but he didn't do much on Monday with 12 points (3-of-8 FG), four rebounds, four assists and three turnovers. He also tied a team-low rating of minus-10. But backcourt mate SG Kyle Korver (13.2 PPG, 47% FG, 6.0 RPG in series) was able to pick up the slack, as all 10 of his field-goal attempts came from behind the three-point arc where he was 5-for-10 and finished with 16 points, nine rebounds and a game-high +21 rating. If he can continue to knock down threes at his 42% clip, that allows Millsap to have more room in the paint and also affords Teague a wider driving lane. SF DeMarre Carroll (10.6 PPG, 54% FG, 5.0 RPG in series) pitched in nicely offensively in Game 5 with 15 points on 6-of-9 FG, but pulled down only two rebounds as part of his minus-10 rating over 28 minutes. For the Hawks to complete this gargantuan series upset, they will need continued production from their bench. PF Mike Scott (9.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG in series) had an unconscious second quarter (6-for-6 FG, 5-for-5 threes), but did not score in any other quarter on Monday, going 0-for-3. But PG Shelvin Mack had his best postseason performance ever in Game 5 when he came off the bench to record 20 points (5-of-9 FG, 8-of-10 FT), five assists, three rebounds, two steals and a +15 rating. He played so well that Teague was needed for only 32 minutes.


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