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Nets look to retain dominance of Heat Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 5/6/2014  at  5:57:00 AM
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BROOKLYN NETS (48-41)

at MIAMI HEAT (58-28)

NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7.5, Total: 191.5

After outlasting the Raptors in a grueling seven-game series on Sunday, the Nets travel south on Tuesday to take on the two-time defending champion Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Brooklyn went the distance in the first round of the NBA playoffs, defeating Toronto 104-103 as a three-point road underdog in Sunday's Game 7. Miami, on the other hand, didn’t need to use much of its energy as it swept Charlotte in impressive fashion, closing out the series on April 28. The Heat were 3-1 ATS against the Bobcats while the Nets went 4-2-1 ATS against the Raptors, including three straight ATS wins. Entering this season, Miami held a 13-game win streak over Brooklyn, but the Nets won all four meetings this season (SU and ATS), including three victories by exactly one point. This series is usually low-scoring in South Beach with the Under going 7-1 in the past eight meetings there. Brooklyn has been a terrible road team this season at 17-27 SU (20-23-1 ATS), but has thrived with one day of rest, going 28-18 ATS (61%) in this scenario. The Nets are also 17-3 ATS (85%) in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the past two seasons, and are 10-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival in that timeframe. Miami has been a losing bet at home this season (19-23-1 ATS) despite a 34-9 SU record in front of its fans, but is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) when playing with at least three days of rest. The Heat are also 24-11 ATS (69%) when revenging a same-season loss versus an opponent over the past two years, and are 22-11 ATS (67%) after two straight double-digit wins in that timeframe.

The Nets were able to score 97.7 PPG on 46.1% FG (30.3% threes) in their seven-game series versus Toronto, and took good care of the basketball too with only 11.7 TOPG. Defensively, they allowed 96.1 PPG on 44.1% FG (31.3% threes) while forcing 15.3 TOPG from the Raptors. Brooklyn nearly coughed up a double-digit lead with five minutes remaining on Sunday, but held on for the one-point victory. SF Paul Pierce (13.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) blocked the potential game winning shot by Kyle Lowry as time expired. The former Celtics forward loves playing against Miami, averaging 21.3 PPG (55% FG) and 4.5 RPG in four meetings with the Heat this season. The Nets will need him to hit his open threes in this series while also playing tough defense. PG Deron Williams (16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) had 13 points and four assists in Game 7, and the Nets are a different team when the point guard is playing aggressively. Williams will be matched up with far inferior point guards against the Heat, and will need to take advantage if the Nets are going to come away with a second-round upset over the defending champs. Williams shot terribly in three meetings versus Miami this season with only 7.3 PPG on 33% FG, but he also pitched in 7.3 APG, 4.3 RPG and 1.3 SPG. SG Joe Johnson (21.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG in playoffs) was lights-out against the Raptors on Sunday, finishing with 26 points, four rebounds and four assists in Game 7. For the series, Johnson shot 52% FG and 39% threes, and he was also on the mark versus Miami this season with 19.5 PPG on 52% FG (44% threes). Johnson is not afraid of the big moment and will knock down huge shots when the Nets need him most. PF Mason Plumlee (2.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG in playoffs) was a non-factor in his first-ever playoff series, but he did enjoy some success against the Heat in the regular season. In the most recent meeting with Miami, Plumlee had eight points, eight rebounds and three blocks in 30 minutes, and the Nets could certainly use his energy off the bench in this series.

Miami was outstanding in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, sweeping Charlotte in four games by scoring 101.8 PPG on 47.7% FG (43.2% threes), and allowing just 92.0 PPG on 44.8% FG (36.5% threes). The Heat committed just 10.5 TOPG, while forcing 15.0 TOPG from the Bobcats. Per usual, Miami was carried by the outstanding play of SF LeBron James (30.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 2.3 SPG in playoffs). In four games against the Nets this season, James averaged 27.5 PPG (55% FG), 7.3 RPG, 6.0 APG and 1.8 SPG in 41.8 MPG. Miami will need the former league MVP to be at his best if it is going to end its losing skid in this series and ultimately to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. James sets the tone for this Miami team and will need to impose his will on both ends of the floor from the second Game 1 tips off, until the end of the series. SG Dwyane Wade (17.5 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) played only 33.0 MPG in round one, and the Heat’s sweep likely allowed their superstar guard to rest up and get himself healthy. Wade playing at 100 percent health is crucial for Miami and could be the difference between them being the team that lost to the Nets in all four games during the regular season and the team that won the championship last season. Wade missed two of the meetings with Brooklyn, but shot very well in the other two meetings with 21.5 PPG on 57% FG. PF Chris Bosh (14.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) also performed well versus the Nets this season with 15.8 PPG (50% FG), 6.8 RPG and 1.0 BPG in the four defeats, and he will need to get himself going for Miami to advance. Bosh played well in Game 4 against the Bobcats, finishing with 17 points and eight rebounds in 30 minutes of play, and if he can ride some momentum into Game 1 of this series, the Heat will be extremely difficult to beat on their own home floor. PG Mario Chalmers (9.0 PPG, 3.5 APG in playoffs) will need to figure out how to penetrate past the bigger and stronger Deron Williams. While he was able to knock down 8-of-14 three-pointers in the regular-season series, Chalmers made a pathetic 3-of-13 shots inside the arc. The biggest issue for this Miami team is whether or not it will be able to shake off the rust of not playing a game in nearly a week.


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