StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Nets look to even up series with Heat on Monday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 5/12/2014  at  6:12:00 AM
  Print This Article    

MIAMI HEAT (60-29)

at BROOKLYN NETS (49-43)

NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 4 - Miami leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -2, Total: 188

The Nets won a crucial Game 3 over the Heat on Saturday and are now in position to tie up the series in Game 4 on Monday night.

After looking miserable in Miami for games 1 and 2, Brooklyn came back home and won in impressive fashion. The Nets were one-point underdogs, but won Game 3 by a 104-90 score to make this a series again. They shot a blistering 53% FG and 60% threes (15-for-25), while holding the Heat to 46% FG and 33% threes (8-of-24), and completely dominated the glass with a 43-27 rebounding advantage. The loss snapped Miami's six-game win streak this postseason (5-1 ATS) and dropped the club to an even 21-21-2 ATS (24-20 SU) on the road this season. When these teams have met in Brooklyn over the past three seasons, the Nets are 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) against the Heat with the Over going 5-1. But overall in this same timeframe, Miami holds the 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS advantages. Over the past two seasons, the Heat are 13-3 ATS after three straight games forcing an opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers, and are also 8-1 ATS when playing five or less games in 14 days this season. However, Brooklyn has been a stellar home team all season at 31-14 SU (26-19 ATS), and is 15-7 ATS versus good shooting teams (46%+ FG) this season. The Nets are also 6-2 ATS this season after playing in three straight games as an underdog. There are no significant injuries for either team in this matchup.

The Heat were near flawless in their first six games of the postseason, but they appeared to meet their match in Game 3 with the Nets. Miami had a lot of trouble getting out in transition and didn't share the ball very well with only 13 assists on 31 made field goals. SF LeBron James (27.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.0 APG in playoffs) had a typical monster game of 28 points (8-of-15 FG, 3-of-7 threes), eight rebounds and five assists in 40 minutes, and was still able to get himself going despite the team really struggling. One serious area of weakness for Miami was the lack of production out of PG Mario Chalmers (8.9 PPG in playoffs) and SF Shane Battier (3.3 PPG in playoffs). In the regular season, these two starters combined for 13.9 PPG, but in Game 3 they combined for only five points on 2-of-7 shooting and a minus-29 rating. The Heat will need these two to knock down their open jumpers when they are called upon. SG Dwyane Wade (16.9 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) played well offensively for Miami on Saturday, finishing with 20 points (9-of-18 FG) in 36 minutes. Wade also had three steals in the game and continues to produce for Miami on both ends of the court after a very up-and-down regular season. Miami will need PF Chris Bosh (14.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) to establish himself offensively in Game 4, as he had just 12 points and five rebounds in 37 minutes in Game 3.

The Nets said they weren’t afraid of the Heat and they proved that in Game 3, defeating Miami by 14 points while never being in danger of losing in the fourth quarter. The team was extremely unselfish in making the extra pass with 26 assists on 38 made field goals. SF Paul Pierce (12.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.2 SPG in playoffs) really made his presence felt in Game 3, scoring 14 points (5-of-10 FG, 2-of-3 threes) while grabbing four rebounds and playing excellent defense on LeBron James down the stretch. Offensively, SG Joe Johnson (20.2 PPG in playoffs) really set the tone for the Nets, finishing with 19 points (7-of-10 FG, 5-of-7 threes) and six assists in 34 minutes. When Johnson wasn’t knocking down threes, he was finding his teammates and making the right pass. As a team, the Nets went 15-of-25 from three-point range and a lot of that has to do with the play of PG Deron Williams (14.4 PPG, 5.9 APG in playoffs). Williams hasn’t been able to score in this series like the Nets would’ve liked (0 points on 0-for-9 FG in Game 2), but he has made his presence felt. Williams had 11 assists and only two turnovers in Game 3, and without him running the offense, his teammates would not have been able to shoot as well as they did.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: