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Heat favored at Pacers in Sunday's Game 1
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 5/18/2014  at  5:50:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (62-29)

at INDIANA PACERS (64-31)

Tip-off: Sunday, 3:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -2, Total: 182

The Pacers host the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday afternoon with revenge on their minds for what happened in last year’s postseason.

After playing a grueling seven-game series last postseason in the East Finals where Miami prevailed 99-76 in the deciding game, Indiana was able to win two more games than its conference rival this season to capture home-court advantage in this series. During the regular season, these teams split wins SU and ATS with the home team winning all four meetings. That puts the clubs at an even 12-12 ATS split over the past three seasons, where the Heat hold the 14-10 SU edge. However, when playing at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the Pacers are 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS during that time. In the past two seasons, Miami is 14-4 ATS after three straight games forcing an opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and 19-8 ATS in Sunday games. But over this same timeframe, Indiana is 31-19 ATS at home versus good three-point shooting teams (36%+ threes). The club is also 15-7-1 ATS this season when playing with at least two days' rest. The Heat are mildly concerned with SG Dwyane Wade's hand injury, but he is expected to start on Sunday. The Pacers have no significant injuries.

The Heat advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals after defeating both the Bobcats and Nets in dominating fashion with a sweep, and five-game series win, respectively. Miami is 6-3 ATS during its 8-1 SU mark this postseason, and has scored 99.6 PPG on 48.8% FG, while allowing only 92.2 PPG on 45.8% FG. Now it faces an Indiana team that has really had to battle in order to make it to this point. SF LeBron James (30.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) was absolutely dominant in his past three games for Miami with 35.3 PPG (57% FG), 7.7 RPG and 4.0 APG. During the regular season, James averaged 28.8 PPG and 9.3 RPG against the Pacers. Fortunately for James, he will not be the only source of offense for his team, as SG Dwyane Wade (17.9 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) finally started to look like his former self in Game 5 against the Nets with 28 points in that series-clinching win. He also averaged 21.3 PPG in three games against the Pacers this season, and will have a very intriguing matchup with Lance Stephenson in this series. Miami will really need PF Chris Bosh (14.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) to step his game up in this series, as he will be going up against a very talented Pacers frontcourt. During the regular-season series, Bosh tallied only 11.3 PPG (43% FG) and 5.0 RPG.

The Pacers have been up-and-down for this entire postseason, but after being on the brink of elimination to the eighth-seeded Hawks, they are 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS). But their offense has scored just 91.4 PPG on 44.4% FG during these playoffs, including 87.6 PPG on 44.3% FG over the past five games. However, the defense remains outstanding, as Indiana has limited postseason opponents to 89.8 PPG on 40.4% FG, including 83.8 PPG on 42.7% FG in the past five contests. In the Pacers' close-out win over the Wizards, SG Lance Stephenson (13.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.8 APG in playoffs) had 17 points, eight assists and five rebounds in 41 minutes. Stephenson will be extremely important to Indiana in this series, as he has the chance to really give the Pacers an advantage by outplaying Dwyane Wade at the shooting guard position. During the regular season, Stephenson averaged 12.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 5.3 APG against Miami. PF David West (14.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) had one of the best performances of his career in the Game 6 win over the Wizards with 29 points, six rebounds and four assists, while hitting clutch jumpers nearly every time the Pacers gave him the ball down the stretch. West was great against Miami in the regular season too, averaging 17.8 PPG and 7.3 RPG in 32.8 MPG. However, the most important player for the Pacers is superstar SF Paul George (21.9 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 3.8 APG). George has been wildly inconsistent in these playoffs though, as after having 39 points in Game 4, George scored just 15 in Game 5 and 12 in Game 6. Indiana will need him to be aggressive and on top of his game offensively. C Roy Hibbert (8.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG in playoffs) will need to be aggressive as well for Indiana. Hibbert has either been invisible in these playoffs or a major contributor, it just depends on the mood he wakes up in. In his team's past five wins, Hibbert has averaged a robust 16.6 PPG (62% FG), 7.4 RPG and 3.0 BPG, but in Indiana's five losses this postseason, the 7-foot-2 All-Star has averaged a pathetic 3.2 PPG (28% FG), 2.4 RPG and 0.8 BPG.


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