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Red Sox try to snap 4-game skid Tuesday vs. Jays
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 5/20/2014  at  4:23:00 AM
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS (23-22)

at BOSTON RED SOX (20-23)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -140, Toronto +130, Total: 9.5

The Red Sox attempt to snap their four-game losing streak in the first of three games at home against the Blue Jays on Tuesday night.

Toronto has looked solid this year and has won five of its past seven contests coming into this game, which putting the club just one game back of the lead in the tight AL East. Over the weekend the Jays faced the pitching-deprived Rangers, winning 2-of-3 games with a couple of strong pitching performances of their own. They could not complete the sweep on Sunday though, losing 6-2 as they committed four errors, which was the most in a single game this year. 3B Juan Francisco (.292 BA) has been tearing the cover off the ball lately and was 3-for-10 with two home runs in the series. Boston has really struggled to find a rhythm in 2014 after winning the World Series, and is coming off a brutal sweep in Detroit this past weekend. The team totaled just three runs over the three-game set, as their starting pitchers gave up 12 runs (11 ER) in just 16.1 innings of work. With just 16 hits over the series, the Red Sox offense looked dismal, and their 1-through-3 hitters in the order were just 6-for-33 (.182) with five strikeouts and 0 RBI. This game will be a battle of lefties as Toronto sends LHP J.A. Happ (2-1, 3.57 ERA) to the mound to face Boston LHP Felix Doubront (2-3, 4.54 ERA). The Blue Jays have actually preferred playing on the road this year, going 13-11 in away games (10-11 at home), while the Red Sox are just 10-14 at Fenway Park in 2014. The first series of the year between these clubs went to Boston, two games to one, but since the start of 2012, the two teams have split 40 games (20-20) between each other. Also, Toronto has been better when playing at Fenway Park, going 11-8 there over that time. Bettors should be aware that the Red Sox are just 13-26 (.333) in home games with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse in their previous 10 games since the start of 2012. On the other hand, they are an impressive 61-30 (.670) after a loss since the beginning of last year. OF Colby Rasmus (hamstring) continues to ride the DL for the Blue Jays and 3B Will Middlebrooks (finger) will be out for Boston as he continues his own stint on the 15-day DL.

J.A. Happ has bounced around between the majors and minors, as well as the bullpen and rotation, so far this season. He has pitched six games with the Blue Jays this year, three in relief, and while his ERA is solid so far, his WHIP is a horrendous 1.75 because he is walking 6.1 batters per nine innings. The lefty has also allowed four home runs in just 17.2 innings (2.0 HR/9). Happ is coming off one of his better performances this year though, as he went six innings against the Indians on Thursday while allowing six hits and one run. The run came off of a solo homer while he struck out four and walked just two as he earned a win. Happ has not been successful against this Boston team in his career, going 1-2 (2-2 team record) with a 5.06 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He was horrendous against them in their last meeting when he lasted just 3.2 frames and gave up just three hits and two runs, but walked an incredible seven batters in the loss. 2B Dustin Pedroia has had the most success against the lefty in the Red Sox lineup, going 3-for-7 with an RBI. OF Jonny Gomes and OF Shane Victorino have combined to go just 2-for-15 in the matchup, but have also had patience and walked seven times. 1B Mike Napoli is 1-for-4 against Happ and has a double to go along with three strikeouts against the lefty. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has been awful in 2014, going 5-9 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.53 WHIP while converting 12-of-18 saves (67%). The numbers are even worse on the road (5.71 ERA, 1.58 WHIP). Closer Casey Janssen (0.00 ERA, 3 saves) has helped the bullpen since returning from the DL and has been perfect in his first three save opportunities while allowing only one hit over four innings.

Felix Doubront had a rough start for the Red Sox this year, giving up 11 runs in his first three starts (14.2 IP), but has since looked much better and is coming off arguably his best start of the year. While facing the Twins on Wednesday, Doubront earned his second win of the season after pitching 6.1 frames and allowing just seven hits and a run while striking out five batters (1 walk). It was his second consecutive start of going 5+ innings and giving up just one run. One worry is that he has seen his strikeout rate drop in each of the past three seasons with 9.3 K/9 in 2012, 7.7 K/9 in 2013, and now he is at 6.3 K/9 this year. Toronto has given him some trouble in his career, as he is 2-2 against them (4-3 team record) with a 4.77 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while giving up nine home runs in his past six starts (34.2 IP). Three of those homers have come off the bat of OF Jose Bautista, who is just 3-for-14 in all against Doubront with each of his long balls being solo homers. 1B Edwin Encarnacion (5-for-14, 1 HR, 4 RBI), SS Jose Reyes (6-for-15, 1 HR, 2 doubles, 2 RBI) and 3B Brett Lawrie (5-for-16, 2 doubles) have all been tremendous in this matchup. Meanwhile, DH Adam Lind is just 2-for-12 with three strikeouts against Doubront in his career. Boston has always sported one of the top bullpens, and this year the club is 6-7 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while converting 11-of-14 of their save chances (79%). Koji Uehara (1.08 ERA, 9 saves) has been one of the most dominant closers over the past two seasons and is perfect in saves this year while sporting an incredible 25 K's and three walks in 16.2 innings of work.


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