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Cueto, Ryu square off in Monday's matchup
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 5/26/2014  at  4:54:00 AM
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CINCINNATI REDS (22-26)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (27-24)

First pitch: Monday, 8:10 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -120, Cincinnati +110, Total: 6

The Reds head west to L.A. to begin a three-game series against the Dodgers on Monday night.

Cincinnati continues to struggle, losing three of its past four series (5-7 record) and now sits in third place in the NL Central. The Reds were dominated by the Cardinals’ starters over the weekend, losing 6-3 on Saturday and 4-0 on Sunday. The offense did not do much against Adam Wainwright on Sunday, getting six hits, all being singles, and going 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position. OF Ryan Ludwick (.254 BA) performed well for the team in the three-game set, going 4-for-12 with a home run. Los Angeles is coming off an exciting game on Sunday where Josh Beckett threw the first no-hitter of the season in a 6-0 win over the Phillies. The victory was the second game of the series where Dodgers pitchers threw a shutout (2-0 win on Friday) and clinched the series with the team winning four of its past six contests. OF Yasiel Puig (.349 BA) continues to hit and is 12-for-23 with a homer, three doubles, 3 RBI and five runs in his past six games. The pitching matchup on Monday is an exciting one in as stud RHP Johnny Cueto (4-3, 1.86 ERA) of the Reds goes head-to-head with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-2, 3.00 ERA) of the Dodgers. The road has not been good to Cincinnati so far as the club is just 10-14 on the season while Los Angeles is surprisingly just 9-13 in front of its hometown fans. The Dodgers do have a slight 7-6 edge when playing in this matchup since the start of 2012, but have a much better advantage when at home, going 5-2. Bettors should be aware of a few trends in this game with the Reds going 322-302 (.516) in road games versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse since 1997. On the other hand, they are just 13-24 (.351) in road games after scoring two runs or less since the start of last year. After suffering plenty of injuries all season long, the Reds are finally at full strength for this contest, but the Dodgers will likely be without SS Hanley Ramirez, who could be headed to the 15-day DL with a calf injury.

Johnny Cueto has been one of the most impressive pitchers this year with a majors-best 0.74 WHIP, but is coming off his worst start of the year on Tuesday against the Nationals where he went 5.1 innings while allowing eight runs (6 ER) on six hits, but zero walks and six strikeouts. This type of outing is certainly not his norm this year though, as he has allowed two or fewer runs while going at least seven innings in each of his first nine starts. Part of his success has come from his career-high 9.5 K/9 so far this year with batters hitting just .145 against him. Luck has been part of it as well, with opponents hitting .178 BABIP compared to his career average of .277 BABIP. In his career against the Dodgers, Cueto has gone 1-4 (1-5 team record) with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and has not pitched against them since 2012. His past three starts have gone very well, as he has 15 K's and two walks while allowing six runs (5 ER) in 21 frames. OF Matt Kemp has seen the ball great out of Cueto’s hands, going 6-for-12 against him with two solo home runs. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (3-for-8, 1 HR) and 2B Dee Gordon (3-for-6) have also done well in this matchup. The Reds’ bullpen has not done well on the year, going 4-9 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, while converting only 10-of-17 save chances (59%). These numbers are even worse on the road where Cincinnati relievers are 1-6 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Aroldis Chapman (2.57 ERA, 4 saves) has given the team a boost since his return, saving 4-of-5 games while striking out 12 in his first seven innings on the mound.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has started out the year allowing two or fewer runs in six of his first eight starts, but has shown he can blow up at times with two starts where he threw just seven total innings while giving up 14 runs (11 ER) and 17 hits. He has been impressive at keeping the ball in the park, giving up just two homers in his first 45 frames while putting together a solid 40 K's to just 12 walks. In his first outing off the DL on Wednesday, Ryu earned his fourth win of the season as he went six innings against the Mets, allowing two runs on nine hits with one walk and nine strikeouts. He’s had just one start against the Reds in his career and it went very well, as he tossed seven strong innings, giving up only one run on two hits and one walk while striking out nine batters. Both of the hits went for extra bases including a home run off the bat of OF Jay Bruce who was 1-for-3 in the matchup. C Devin Mesoraco, 1B Joey Votto, 2B Brandon Phillips and 3B Todd Frazier combined to go just 0-for-11 against Ryu with two strikeouts. The Dodgers relievers have gone just 4-12 this year with a 4.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and are 15-for-19 (79%) in save opportunities. They have been much better at home though, going 2-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while converting 5-of-6 saves. Kenley Jansen (4.15 ERA, 15 saves) has blown two games so far on the year, but has struck out an incredible 35 batters in 21.1 innings (14.5 K/9).


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