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Dodgers try to send Reds to 4th straight loss Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 5/27/2014  at  4:07:00 AM
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CINCINNATI REDS (22-27)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (28-24)

First pitch: Tuesday, 10:10 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -155, Cincinnati +145, Total: 6.5

The Dodgers’ pitching staff looks to continue its dominant performances when the team plays the second of three games against the Reds on Tuesday night.

Cincinnati has been playing way below its usual standards this season and comes into this contest mired in a three-game losing skid. The Reds have run into some tremendous starting pitchers in those three contests and were nearly on the bad side of a perfect game, as Hyun-Jin Ryu went seven flawless innings against them on Monday before allowing three runs in the eighth inning of the Dodgers' 4-3 victory. Cincinnati's offense has averaged just 2.8 runs per game over its past 10 contests, as the club is not getting any production from the middle of their order as 2B Brandon Phillips and 3B Todd Frazier have combined to go 5-for-25 with seven strikeouts over the past three games. Los Angeles has won five of its past seven games, yet still sit 4.5 games behind the Giants in the NL West standings. The team has been treated to two straight stellar starts, with Josh Beckett throwing his first career no-hitter on Sunday night followed by Ryu's gem. OF Yasiel Puig (.345 BA) is living up to his hype from a tremendous rookie campaign, and has gone 12-for-25 over his past seven games with three doubles, a triple, 1 HR, 3 RBI, five runs and six walks. The pitching matchup for Tuesday should be solid, as one of the better surprises this year, RHP Alfredo Simon (6-2, 2.31 ERA), goes up against former Cy Young recipient RHP Zack Greinke (7-1, 2.01 ERA). Playing on the road has not gone well for the Reds so far with a record of 10-15 in away games, while the Dodgers are just 10-13 when playing at home this year. With Monday’s victory, Los Angeles is now 8-6 in this matchup over the past three seasons, going an impressive 6-2 in its home games during that stretch, with 10-of-13 games going Under the total. The Dodgers have not been able to string together wins this year, and are 1-8 after two or more consecutive wins. On the other hand, Greinke is 23-4 when pitching as a favorite of -150 or more in the past three years. On the injury front, 1B Joey Votto (knee) will miss this game for Cincinnati while C A.J. Ellis (ankle) was just placed on the 15-day DL for the Dodgers after injuring himself during the celebration of Beckett's no-hitter. L.A. star SS Hanley Ramirez (calf) is also sitting this one out.

Alfredo Simon has put together a solid career thus far, but most of it has been a reliever, with him coming out of the pen in 186 games and starting just 28 over his seven-year MLB tenure. While he has been great for Cincinnati, there are a few concerns. His BABIP is just .216 while he is stranding 90.7% of runners on base. With a low K-rate of just 5.6 K/9, his numbers are going to inevitably get worse. Simon has also already allowed eight home runs in his first 58.1 innings (1.23 HR/9). Despite all that, his past two outings have been tremendous with him totaling 14.1 innings while allowing just one run on 10 hits with a 14:2 K/BB ratio in two winning efforts. Simon has never faced the Dodgers as a starter, and threw just 2.1 frames in relief against them over his career, giving up two hits and a run while striking out two. The Dodgers’ batters have not seen Simon much, as 1B Adrian Gonzalez (1-for-4, 1 RBI, 2 walks) has had the most experience in the matchup. Simon will also need to be careful when facing OF Yasiel Puig who has hit 22 of his 25 extra-base hits against righties this season. The Reds’ bullpen has not done well this year, going 4-9 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, and is a subpar 10-for-17 (58.8%) in save chances. Aroldis Chapman (2.57 ERA, 4 saves) being back in the ninth inning has provided some stability though, and he has 12 strikeouts in his first seven innings of work.

Zack Greinke may be the second-best starter on his own ballclub, but he would be the ace for most clubs, as he has posted an ERA below 3.50 in four of the past six years while having a record of 53-16 (.768) since the start of the 2011 season. He has struck out 65 batters in his first 58.1 innings this year and has once again showed tremendous control with just 14 walks in that time. Greinke has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season, but has had trouble getting very deep into his outings, averaging just 5.2 innings per start. He has been great in eight career starts against the Reds, going 4-1 (5-3 team record) with a 2.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, while not earning a victory against them since mid-2012. He has recorded double-digit strikeouts in four of the eight meetings. No player on Cincinnati has done very well in his career against Greinke, and the only two hitters that have left the yard are OF Jay Bruce (4-for-25, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 7 K’s) and OF Ryan Ludwick (2-for-17, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 8 K’s). C Devin Mesoraco, 2B Brandon Phillips, 3B Todd Frazier and SS Zack Cozart are a combined 8-for-48 (.167) against the righty with 2 RBI and 15 strikeouts. The Dodgers relievers have gone 4-12 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this year while getting the save in 16-of-20 (80%) chances. Kenley Jansen (3.91 ERA, 15 saves) is 15-for-17 in save opportunities himself while striking out a hefty 37 batters in 23 innings on the mound (14.5 K/9).


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